PARIS/BERLIN/WASHINGTON (own report) - A Europe-wide think-tank warns of “far-reaching European consequences” of Marine Le Pen’s de facto exclusion from the next presidential election in France. The court ruling has deprived Le Pen of the right to stand for election with immediate effect. This development is, as a recent article from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) put it, likely to lead to an immediate upswing of support “for anti-establishment movements throughout Europe”. Opinion surveys indicate that almost half of the population in France believes that the judgement was politically motivated. Leading politicians of the extreme right from all across the European Union, including a prime minister and a deputy prime minister, have voiced their support for Le Pen. The Rassemblement National (National Rally) leader has also received wider widespread international backing beyond the EU. Condemnation of the sentence has also come from the right in North America, Latin America and Israel – in the case of Israel, from a government minister who recently hosted representatives from far-right parties around Europe at a conference in Jerusalem. In the United States, the highly influential Trump-advising Heritage Foundation has also weighed in. Le Pen’s conviction has consolidated core elements of a new network of the transatlantic far right as it closes ranks. Read more

PARIS/BERLIN (own report) - In response to their exclusion from the Ukraine peace talks by the US, the bigger EU states, EU leaders and the UK came together in Paris on Monday to make a show of closing ranks. The Trump administration announced last Friday that it would negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine with Russia on without anyone else being at the table. The first direct talks are beginning without delay this Tuesday in Saudi Arabia between Foreign Ministers Marco Rubio and Sergei Lavrov. Washington’s decision to exclude the EU has pushed Europe to the sidelines and represents a bitter blow for Berlin and Paris in particular. On the one hand, yesterday’s meeting in Paris was intended to look at possible security guarantees for Kiev. Europe might, for example, put troops on the ground in the hope of gaining leverage and forcing its way back into a Ukraine peace process. The deployment of Germany’s Bundeswehr alongside other European armies is under discussion. On the other hand, European leaders are considering a massive joint arms build-up with the aim of turning the EU into an independent military power – independent, that is, of the United States. However, serious differences continue to exist within the EU. A continuation of the war in Ukraine is still considered by some as an option. Read more

PARIS/BERLIN (own report) – Responding to the unexpected outcome of the French parliamentary elections, influential German politicians predict a weakening of France and the European Union. In the second round of elections, held yesterday and dominated by tactical voting, none of the three major blocs won an absolute majority. Shortly after the polling stations closed, leading politicians from the Conservatives and the liberal-conservative presidential bloc Ensemble were quick to speak out against forming a coalition government with the left wing of the Nouveau Front populaire (NFP). They are shocked by the strong showing of La France insoumise (LFI, France Unbowed). But without a leftist component, no governing coalition can be envisaged for the time being. German foreign policy experts are warning that France faces “paralysis and division”; it will be incapable of decisive action. Macron could, they fear, even drag “the whole of Europe into crisis”. Germany must, some claim, now take more “responsibility for leadership in Europe”. CDU leader Friedrich Merz had previously said Berlin should cooperate with a future French government even under the Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement national (RN, National Rally). The fact that the second round of voting leaves the RN without a mandate to form a government in Paris now renders such calls irrelevant. Yet this position taken by the opposition in Berlin does show how far politicians will go in declaring once shunned forces on the far right to be potential coalition partners. Read more

PARIS/BERLIN (own report) – Advisors to the German government have pointed to a link between Germany’s dominance in the EU and the rise of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) in France. The RN has regularly warned that Germany wants to “achieve military dominance along with its economic dominance” and is therefore “deliberately weakening French positions.” This French response is highlighted in a policy paper by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). And the line of argument is catching on. Immediately before yesterday’s first round of voting in France’s snap parliamentary election, a leading RN strategist explained to the German public how his party would govern in the event of an election victory. A “break with the EU” should, he said, be avoided. The RN would strive for a “pragmatic” foreign policy and would not pursue a unilateral economic policy. However, the EU was, he argued, undergoing a wave of “nationalist revival”. The RN has now emerged as the strongest force in the first round of voting. The conservative Les Républicains expressly reject any election recommendations to stop the RN in the run-off. Meanwhile, the coalition around the presidential party Renaissance will, for its part, not enable candidates from the left-wing party La France insoumise (LFI, a key partner in the New Popular Front) to defeat the RN. Read more

PARIS/NOUMÉA/BERLIN (own report) - Violent unrest has sent shockwaves through New Caledonia, one of the remaining colonial territories of the 21st century, which is still controlled by France. On the archipelago, located east of Australia in the southwest Pacific Ocean, sections of the indigenous population are in revolt after the French government decided to introduce a revised electoral law that disadvantages those communities. The reform would ensure a stable majority for the inhabitants who have moved there from France and tend to be politically aligned with Paris. It effectively downgrades the indigenous population to the status of a minority in their own country and, above all, worsens their prospects of decolonisation. New Caledonia is one of those places classified by the United Nations as “non-self-governing territories”, while Paris regards the archipelo as French soil. Under UN policy, a NSGT should move towards decolonisation without delay, but Paris refuses to budge. The islands have considerable geostrategic importance, enabling France to maintain a permanent military presence in the Pacific. The German armed forces have also benefited from the French military presence. If France were to release the colony, China could gain in influence there – a scenario that runs directly counter to Berlin’s strategic interests. Read more

“The day will come,” wrote the French historian Marc Bloch in April 1944, “and perhaps quite soon, when it will be possible to shed light on the machinations that took place in our country from 1933 to 1939 in support of the Berlin-Rome axis so that it could rule over Europe.” Shortly beforehand, on 8 March, Bloch, who had joined the Resistance to fight against the German occupation regime, had been arrested, imprisoned and severely tortured by the Gestapo in Lyon. Facing death, he was gripped by a question that he had already addressed back in the summer of 1940, shortly after the German Reich’s rapid military conquest of France. In his essay L'étrange défaite (Strange Defeat), he concluded that the French elites – military leaders, politicians, journalists, and above all industrialists – were prepared to “single-handedly destroy the entire edifice of our alliances and our partnerships” and enter into open collaboration with the Germans. Bloch, too, like so many others, fell victim to that collaboration: the Nazis murdered him on 16 June 1944. Read more

BERLIN/PARIS (Own report) – Serious differences overshadow first joint cabinet meeting between the German and French governments beginning today (Monday). Officially, the two-day meeting, attended by the heads of governments and ministers, will focus on the transformation of industry and the strengthening of the EU’s technological sovereignty. De facto, it will be aimed at exploring ways to improve relations between Berlin and Paris, which are currently desolate and continue to deteriorate. Several Franco-German arms projects have been regularly making headlines: Projects, said to be of strategic importance for the EU’s “strategic autonomy,” but which have barely gotten off the ground or have even failed. New issues of contention are constantly being added, most recently fierce disputes over the EU’s reform of the energy market, but also on serious foreign policy differences, for example on the question of which position to take in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Already in September, Germany’s Economics Minister Robert Habeck concluded that Berlin and Paris actually “do not agree on anything.” Read more

BERLIN/PARIS (Own report) – The Franco-German Main Ground Combat System (MGCS). A successor project to the Leopard 2 battle tank is threatened to fail. As the German defense ministry admits in a confidential report, disagreements between Berlin and Paris have already led to “delays of several years in the original programing schedule,” barely six years after the program was launched. The completion of the MGCS, planned for 2035 is “no longer feasible.” The MGCS is expected to be operational in 2040 at the earliest. Meanwhile, German tank producers are presenting alternatives, for example Rheinmetall’s Panther battle tank. In addition, the Leopard 2A8, a next-generation version of the tried and tested Leopard 2 is in planning. Franco-German disputes mark the European armaments sector also beyond the MGCS, for example, pertaining to the next generation fighter jet, the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) or Berlin’s plans for a new European air defense system. Experts in Paris point out that, in the Ukraine war, not France but the German government has aligned itself closer with the USA and warn of an intra-European “epoch of confrontation.” Read more

PARIS/BERLIN (Own report) -Germany and France are seeking greater “European sovereignty” and aim to “strengthen the EU as a geopolitical actor,” according to a Franco-German declaration published yesterday in Paris on the occasion of the ceremonies marking the 60th anniversary of the signing of the Élysée Treaty. The declaration provides military support for Ukraine “for as long as it takes,” announces new armament projects, and a Franco-German exercise in the “Indo-Pacific.” This is also due to Germany's severe setbacks in its rivalry with the Unites States, including its growing military dependence and the threat of its deindustrialization due to the exodus of production sites to the USA. According to the French publicist Emmanuel Todd, the current global power struggle – “the third world war has begun” – is also “about Germany.” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz anticipates the emergence of a “multipolar world,” in which Germany and the EU are to assume leading roles as strong military powers. Read more

BERLIN/PARIS (Own report) - The Franco-German Ministerial Council meeting ended yesterday with a conspicuous display of harmony. He would like to thank Chancellor Angela Merkel for her "commitment," "vigor" and "patience," French President Emmanuel Macron declared in reference to the fact that the Ministerial Council meeting was the last such meeting with Merkel's participation. The Chancellor stressed that it was “always an enrichment when we reach a common solution." The declarations of harmony conceal the fact that, since she took office in late 2005, Merkel has succeeded in systematically increasing Berlin's predominance over Paris - from imposing Germany's austerity policy during the euro crisis against fierce French resistance, to the successful rejection of Macon's plea for a euro zone fiscal union. Their current disputes pertain to the war in Mali, where a defeat of the European powers is looming and the development of a new sixth-generation fighter jet (FCAS) almost encountered an impasse due to bitter internal rivalries. Read more