A show of unity

Left in the second row

French President Emmanuel Macron hastily organised the meeting of heads of state and government from eight European countries [1] along with the EU leaders and the NATO Secretary General in Paris yesterday, Monday. This move came after the Trump administration made it clear on Friday that it would start negotiations with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine without any involvement of European leaders. Trump’s National Security Advisor Mike Waltz reiterated that Washington would involve everyone “at the appropriate time”. The European states would also be involved and consulted, not least because, he said, the US might give them the task of providing Ukraine with “long-term military guarantees”.[2] However, just what “involve” and “consult” will actually mean in practice remains unclear. According to a report in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Washington has sent a questionnaire to Berlin and other European capitals, in which the governments there are to submit their offers for security guarantees, including the number of soldiers they could provide.[3] Not wanting to be downgraded to the status of US sidekicks, European governments – or at least those from the major European states – have followed Macron’s invitation to yesterday’s meeting.

Who provides troops will have a say

Macron is said to be inclined to use the US rebuff as another opportunity to make the case for the military independence of the EU. Providing the “peacekeepers” required for a demarcation line between Russia and Ukraine after a ceasefire would give Europe some leverage. He wants to position Europe vis-à-vis the United States as a significant power that should not be ignored when it comes to the terms for ending the war in Ukraine. If troops are provided on the ground, the governments concerned must be invited to the table. Paris has, in any case, been signalling for some time its desire to deploy soldiers to a possible buffer zone between the Russian and Ukrainian armies. On Sunday, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that London, too, would do the same.[4] And Sweden’s Foreign Minister, Maria Malmer Stenergard, announced on Monday that Stockholm was not ruling anything out. The Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Dick Schoof, stated that he was “not negative” on the question of deploying Dutch troops. Only Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, gave a clear thumbs-down to the idea of sending Polish soldiers to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.

Bundeswehr under discussion

Following the Paris meeting, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he considered the debate about sending military personnel to Ukraine to be premature and rejected any commitment on this. However, Sigmar Gabriel, a fellow Social Democrat, former Foreign Minister and chair of the Atlantic Bridge, had just previously made a strong plea on the fringes of the Munich Security Conference for the deployment of the Bundeswehr. It would not be enough to send in UN troops “to monitor the ceasefire”, Gabriel argued. Rather, “What Ukraine wants is partners who are militarily present to show any potential opponent, in this case Putin, that if you attack Ukraine you’ll be attacking us.”[5] Gabriel continued, “We will not only be on NATO’s eastern flank, ... we will also be present in Ukraine as Europeans, and thus as Germans, too.”

“Withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty”

The eight European heads of state and government also discussed in Paris the question of increasing their military budgets with the aim of becoming militarily independent of the United States in the long term. Polish leader Tusk had already indicated in advance his plans for a huge hike in military investment amounting to 4.7 per cent of Poland’s gross domestic product (GDP). Prime Minister Starmer was also speaking in favour of increased funding for defence. However, he does not believe his government is in a position to put aside more than 2.5 per cent of GDP for the defence budget, as demanded not only by US President Donald Trump but also by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Gustav Gressel, a military expert who worked for the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) until a few days ago, had previously expressed his views quite dramatically. In a temporarily deleted interview, Gressel said that “a threat worth considering “ against Russia was now to “withdraw immediately from the Non-Proliferation Treaty” and “pay into a joint European, indeed in an extreme case, a German nuclear weapons programme.”[6] “A reliable nuclear deterrent,” was he opined, “essential for German security ... basically inescapable.”

Option: continue the war

The degree of unity that would be required for the EU states to take a united approach to troop deployments, let alone coordinated armament build-ups, has not, however, yet been reached. Criticism of the meeting had already being voiced in advance. A government official from one of the Baltic countries was quoted as saying that Macron was dividing the EU with his selective invitations. EU Council President António Costa should, in this view, have invited all member states to the meeting.[7] The Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, complained that the EU leaders attending the Paris meeting – Costa and von der Leyen – had not been instructed to do so by the members. It was also said that peacekeeping forces would have to be a matter for the United Nations, not Europe. The EU should keep out of it. Hungary’s Foreign Minister, Péter Szijjártó, was blunter: “those warmongers who have only ever poured oil on the fire for three years” were now gathering in Paris. He suspected that they wanted to “prevent ... an agreement on peace in Ukraine from being reached.”[8] Speaking on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, Ivo Daalder, a former US ambassador to NATO, did indeed take this position. In his view, there should be discussions in Paris on the question of whether the European states would be prepared to continue the war if Ukraine was only offered a bad peace deal.[9]

Humiliation as an opportunity

In fact no really concrete decisions were announced after the Paris meeting on Monday. Further talks are to follow. Other EU members would, said diplomats in the French capital, then be successively included in discussion rounds. Beyond this, the Élysée Palace put forward the notion that the humiliation of European governments by Washington in its decision to exclude them from Ukraine negotiations should, in retrospect, prove to be an “opportunity” – an opportunity to push forward the agenda of those who want to turn the EU into an independent military power.[10] However, the success of such a plan is uncertain in view of ongoing disagreements within the EU.

[1] The participants were Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands, Denmark and the UK.

[2] Andrew E. Kramer: Left Out of Ukraine Talks, Europe Races to Organize a Response. nytimes.com 16.02.2025.

[3] USA wollen Ukrainegespräche mit Russland in Saudi-Arabien führen. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 17.02.2025.

[4] Keir Starmer: Potentially putting Britons in harm’s way is a huge responsibility – but we must be ready to do our bit for Europe. telegraph.co.uk 16.02.2025.

[5] Sigmar Gabriel fordert bei Ukraine-Waffenstillstand Bundeswehreinsatz. n-tv.de 14.02.2025.

[6] Militärexperte: “Das ist der Durchbruch zum großen Krieg”. web.de 15.02.2025.

[7] Catherine Porter, Steven Erlanger: European Leaders Meet in Paris as U.S. Pushes Ahead With Ukraine Plan. nytimes.com 17.02.2025.

[8] “In Paris treffen sich frustrierte Trump-Gegner”. tagesspiegel.de 17.02.2025.

[9] Catherine Porter, Steven Erlanger: European Leaders Meet in Paris as U.S. Pushes Ahead With Ukraine Plan. nytimes.com 17.02.2025.