From Kosovo to Lithuania
Bundestag has again extended the Bundeswehr mission in Kosovo. Bombing Yugoslavia in 1999 was a milestone in the remilitarisation of German power politics – now focused on Eastern Europe.
BERLIN/PRISTINA (own report) – Germany will continue its military presence in Kosovo for another year. This was decided by the Bundestag yesterday, Thursday. The Bundeswehr has now been stationed in Kosovo for 26 years. Its declared aim is to stabilise the region. Recent years have, however, seen the situation on the ground repeatedly escalate into violent clashes. Kosovo’s breakaway from Serbia was forced through by a NATO bombing campaign, with active German participation. Since the NATO’s 1999 war on Yugoslavia and the subsequent session, Kosovo is still only recognised by less than half of the UN member states. Germany not only remains an occupying power in Kosovo but has progressively expanded its military influence around Eastern Europe as part of a geostrategic power struggle against Russia. Germany’s participation in the 1999 attack on Yugoslavia without a UN mandate was a decisive step on Berlin’s road to putting German forces back into Eastern Europe and remilitarising German power politics. Berlin is now establishing its first permanent military base abroad – in Lithuania, an area where Germany once waged its war of annihilation against the Soviet Union. Read more
Joining the arms race in India
Germany’s Rheinmetall and Diehl Defence cooperate with Reliance Defence Ltd. to make precision-guided ammunition in India. Accusations abound of preferential treatment by Prime Minister Modi.
BERLIN/NEW DELHI (own report) – Rheinmetall and Diehl Defence have signed a contract with India’s Reliance Defence Limited for the production in India of precision-guided munitions, explosives and propellants. The background story is not only India’s wish to diversify military supply chains but also Berlin’s attempt to dissuade India from future arms cooperation with Russia. Germany has been expanding its military cooperation with India. This was recently seen in joint naval and air force manoeuvres. However, when it comes to large-scale procurement in India, German arms companies lag far behind their Western competitors from the US and France. The French are already supplying Rafale fighter jets, while the Americans intend to supply F-35s. The race for a bigger piece of the cake in India’s growing defence market has been hotting up since the recent military conflict between India and Pakistan. India is now seeking to move quickly in acquiring the latest high-tech weapon systems, including fighter jets. Rheinmetall’s partner Reliance Defence Ltd. has been topping the list of Indian companies securing international arms contracts. Accusations abound that the Reliance Group has received preferential treatment from Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Read more
Dirty work (II)
Responding to the US attack on Iran, Berlin again approves a violation of international law. Israeli strikes had already put an end to ongoing talks. Has the future of diplomacy been blighted?
BERLIN/WASHINGTON/TEHRAN (own report) – The US has joined Israel’s war of aggression on Iran. And by approving US strikes, the German government has endorsed a second violation of international law within ten days. “Our aim continues to be to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon,” reads a joint statement issued by Germany, France and the United Kingdom yesterday, Sunday. It demands that Tehran should immediately engage in talks leading to an agreement that addresses all concerns associated with its nuclear programme. Yet Iran had already been in the midst of negotiations with the United States until those talks were stopped by Israel’s attacks. On top of this, a negotiating process with the three largest Western European states was also wrecked by the US bombing raids. In fact, the assaults by Israel and by the US have not only violated and further undermined international law but have also discredited diplomacy in general. They have seriously damaged the future of diplomatic efforts worldwide. Moreover, Israel’s pursuit of “decapitation”, the elimination of an adversary’s military and political leaders through targeted assassinations, only worsens what is becoming common practice in warfare. As for the use of violence to enforced denuclearisation, experts now believe Iran will want to accelerate its push for nuclear armament as the only way to prevent such attacks in future. Read more
Attack on neutrality
In Ireland, protests are growing against the government’s efforts to abolish the Triple Lock, an instrument to secure the country’s neutrality: EU militarisation now extending to Dublin.
DUBLIN/BRUSSELS (own report) – Ireland has seen major demonstrations against a de facto abolition of the country’s longstanding neutrality in favour of militarisation within the EU framework. On Saturday, around a thousand people took to the streets in Dublin to demonstrate against the government’s planned abolition of the ‘Triple Lock’. The Triple Lock is a constitutional mechanism that requires any mission involving more than twelve Irish soldiers to have been approved by a UN Security Council or UN General Assembly resolution. This arrangement is intended to help preserve the country’s historic neutrality. Ireland’s neutrality is deeply rooted in the country’s history under British colonial rule. The rejection of involvement in wars in foreign countries – especially alongside the United Kingdom – is “a core element of poplar Irish national sentiment,” explains Anthony Coughlan, professor emeritus at Trinity College Dublin and spokesperson for the National Platform EU Research and Information Centre, in an interview with german-foreign-policy.com. The government’s attempt to make it possible to break the tradition of neutrality by removing the Triple Lock is seen in part as a consequence of Irish elites becoming integrated in the EU establishment. Read more
A right to wage wars of aggression?
Berlin approves Israel’s military assault on Iran. Yet legal experts make clear: it’s a violation of international law, as is the killing of Iranian nuclear scientists. Berlin has tolerated similar crimes – as in the ‘war on terror’ pretext.
BERLIN/TEL AVIV/TEHRAN (own report) – The German government approves Israel’s current war of aggression against Iran, which is clearly in violation of international law. No criticism can be heard from Berlin over the targeted assassination of civilian scientists. On Friday, Chancellor Friedrich Merz categorically stated, “We reaffirm that Israel has the right to defend its existence and the safety of its citizens.” As numerous judgements by renowned international law experts have shown, a “preventive” strike such as Israel’s attack on Iran is only permissible if it really prevents an imminent and overwhelming attack that cannot be averted by any other means. This was not the case here. Indeed, Iran was engaged in talks with the United States over its nuclear programme. Nor can the targeted killing of Iranian scientists be justified under international law, as a US legal expert has confirmed. German governments of various stripes, whether a ‘grand coalition’, an SPD-Greens coalition or a CDU/CSU-FDP coalition, have typically chosen to cover up crimes committed by close allies. The CIA’s abduction of terror suspects to torture dungeons and US drone killings around the world under Obama are cases in point. Read more
Piracy in the Baltic (II)
NATO countries around the Baltic Sea step up hostilities against oil tankers in Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ – in violation of international law. Germany is setting a precedent; Russia is now countering.
BERLIN/TALLINN/COPENHAGEN (own report) – Illegal maritime operations by Germany and other NATO countries bordering the Baltic Sea are directed at oil tankers transporting Russian oil. The actions against Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ threaten to escalate tensions in the Baltic. A Baltic Sea summit of NATO allies, held in January, has emboldened several countries with Baltic coasts, including Germany, to find pretexts for detaining tankers coming from Russian ports and even confiscating them and their cargo. Berlin is currently engaged in such an audacious test case. The German authorities assisted and then detained a tanker carrying Russian oil in January. It was then officially confiscated in March. The vessel’s owner has filed a lawsuit against the seizure and the case is now the subject of legal proceedings. Other NATO countries around the Baltic are also acting to hinder Russia’s so-called ‘shadow fleet’. They have regularly done so in a maritime area between 12 and 200 nautical miles off their coasts. This marks the ‘exclusive economic zone’ (EEZ) in which access to foreign ships is not legally permitted. Such actions are tantamount to piracy. Russia is beginning to counter these measures. Indeed, it is threatening to use force to ensure the peaceful passage of tankers carrying its oil. A foreign minister from a NATO state has voiced the alliance’s dislike of legal constraints: “We have a problem with the law.” Read more
‘Meet force with force’
Policy advisors in Berlin are urging a tougher EU response to Trump’s tariff offensive. The message: escalate, take risks and act as a global power.
BERLIN/BRUSSELS/WASHINGTON (own report) – In the face of the Trump administration’s escalating tariff offensive, foreign policy advisors and economic experts in Berlin are urging significantly tougher countermeasures by the EU. While US tariffs on steel and aluminium imports are set to double this Wednesday, Brussels continues to limit itself to threats without actually implementing the counter-tariffs. This is completely inadequate, according to foreign and economic policy researchers at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). In order to put a stop to the US trade warfare it is, they say, necessary to “meet force with force”. The situation demands not only the implementation of counter-tariffs but also export restrictions on vital products. For example, the United States depends heavily on Dutch-made lithography equipment used in semiconductor production. The EU must, they say, even take the risk of causing widespread instability on the financial markets. This may be the only scenario that can make the Trump administration back down. These calls for a more aggressive response go hand in hand with ambitious long-term demands: the EU should assume the role of an independent global power. Read more
Negotiations in Istanbul
The resumption of the ceasefire talks in Istanbul once again raises the question whether the war could have ended as early as 2022. Foreign Minister Wadephul warns against overestimating Russia's armed forces.
BERLIN/KIEV/MOSCOW (Own report) – Negotiations between Moscow and Kiev on ending the war in Ukraine resumed in Istanbul on Monday, with the exchange of memoranda. Their analysis would be the next step before continuing the negotiations. In the meantime, the exchange of prisoners between Russia and Ukraine is already gaining momentum. Following resumption of the Istanbul negotiations, a close examination of the ceasefire talks in Istanbul in the spring of 2022 has so far been suppressed by leading media with the categorical assertion that Russia demanded, at the time, an unacceptable capitulation from Ukraine. Detailed analyses also by Western experts prove the contrary; they again raise the question of why the West did not support or even torpedoed those peace efforts. Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul's assertion that Russia's “war machine” should not be overestimated also raises questions. The claim that Russia's armed forces will soon be strong enough to attack NATO countries serves to legitimize the current arms build-up. Read more
Euro versus dollar
ECB President Lagarde believes the euro could play a ‘greater international role’ at the expense of a weakening dollar. EU Commission President von der Leyen calls for ‘European independence’ from US.
BERLIN/BRUSSELS (own report) – Thanks to the recent weakness of the US dollar the euro could “play a greater international role” as it gains importance in the global financial system. This view is being advanced by Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB). As Lagarde stated last week, the US dollar’s share of global currency reserves has fallen to 58 per cent, the lowest since 1994. In the current weakness of the dollar she sees as an opportunity for the euro. Bewildered by Donald Trump’s economic policies, both private investors and governments may be motivated to keep their reserves in euros. However, the Eurozone would still need, said Lagarde, a “solid and credible geopolitical foundation” for this enhanced role – a foundation cemented with strong military capabilities. She went on to say that the European Union would finally have to create the long-promised single capital market and gain greater effectiveness by widening the scope of majority decision-making. Parallel to Lagarde’s ambitious plans for Europe’s economy, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is advocating “European independence” from the United States as the next “major European project”. This, again, would mean “a leading role in the global economy of tomorrow”. Read more
A New Era
Berlin celebrates the formal commissioning of the Lithuanian Brigade with a military roll call. Merz and Pistorius seize the opportunity of the first permanent German military base in Eastern Europe to accuse Russia of revisionism.
BERLIN/VILNIUS (own report) – On May 22, Germany celebrated the formal commissioning of its Lithuanian Brigade, with a ceremonial military roll call in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius. On paper, this brigade has existed as a Bundeswehr unit since April 1. Berlin intends to station a total of 5,000 soldiers in Lithuania by 2027. Germany’s Minister of Defense, Boris Pistorius had announced intensive maneuvers for next year. The German government additionally plans to integrate the German commanded NATO multinational battlegroup into the Lithuanian Brigade and thereby into the Bundeswehr command structure. In his speech in Vilnius, Merz reiterated that Germany will do everything to become the strongest military power in Europe. In the Lithuanian capital, both the German chancellor and the minister of defense accused Russia of aggressive revisionism – of all things, during the military roll call commissioning the Bundeswehr’s first permanent foreign base, on territory that had once been the Soviet Union – and in the immediate vicinity of Russia’s border. Read more