BERLIN/WASHINGTON/HAVANA (our own report) – The German government is ignoring the United States’ ongoing total blockade of Cuba along with further efforts by the Trump administration to subjugate the whole of Latin America. Bonn says it is seeking “transatlantic common ground”. An international solidarity flotilla arrived in Havana at the weekend and Spain, an EU member state, is sending more aid supplies to the Caribbean nation. Germany, on the other hand, remains silent and says it hopes for “partnership” with the US. Meanwhile, Trump is demanding the overthrow of Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel and boasts that he will soon be able to rule the country as he chooses. A US blockade of the island has, of course, been in place for over six decades and has long damaged its development. But the current fuel blockade has escalated the hardship by creating dramatic supply shortages. On Cuba, Trump has actually said that, “I think I can do whatever I want with it.” As regards the wider strategy for Latin America, Washington has founded a new regional military alliance, the Shield of the Americas, which comprises only far-right governments. It is ostensibly directed against drug cartels but the agenda is to curb China’s influence. In Colombia and Brazil, two countries that are not run by “Trumpistas”, the US has been interfering in upcoming elections – in each case promoting far-right candidates. Read more

BERLIN/KABUL/ISLAMABAD (own report) – The German government is deporting Afghans to Kabul in defiance of warnings about the dire human rights situation they will face. It is also ignoring the recurring flare-ups in military hostilities between Afghanistan and Pakistan. At the end of February, Berlin pushed ahead with its third deportation flight. The direct flight to the Afghan capital and was arranged after months of negotiations between German authorities and the Taliban. The negotiating process began with the diplomatic accreditation of two Taliban officials. They were appointed to the Afghan Consulate General in Bonn last October. This was immediately followed by two German officials visiting Kabul. At the same time, the German government is moving forward with its plan to end, “as far as possible”, the acceptance of refugees who served as Afghan local staff, primarily with the Bundeswehr. As for deportations, the most recent took place on the very day that the conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan escalated into war. The Pakistani Air Force attacked targets in Kabul and elsewhere. Islamabad accuses Afghanistan of deploying terrorist groups against Pakistan and claims that India is weaponising the Afghan Taliban as proxies in the long-running conflict between the two countries. Read more

BERLIN/PARIS/TEHRAN (our report) – The first voices are being heard in Berlin for German participation in a Strait of Hormuz naval mission as demanded by US President Trump. It is “imperative”, claims CDU defence policy expert Thomas Röwekamp, to “militarily defend” freedom of navigation in the narrow waters off southern Iran. And this imperative means that “a German contribution is necessary”. Such a decision would run counter to the German government’s current stance. The ruling Christian Democratic-Social Democrat coalition has initially ruled out any German involvement in potential operations by Western forces in the Strait of Hormuz. Experts are pointing out that up to twelve warships would be required to escort a convoy of five to ten tankers through the narrow sea passage. Even such a strong naval presence would offer no guarantee of safety. Iranian forces could attack from very close range. An alternative strategy would involve a US invasion of the Iranian coast. ‘Boots on the ground’ would, however, once again embroil US ground troops in a protracted Middle Eastern war. As energy and fertilizer prices soar, France is meanwhile seeking to forge a naval coalition, including Arab states, to intervene in securing the Strait of Hormuz – but only for a time when the fighting has subsided. Paris, like other Western governments, is refusing to be sucked into the immediate hot war. Read more

BUDAPEST/BERLIN (own report) – The parliamentary elections in Hungary, scheduled for April, have become increasingly caught up in a transatlantic power struggle. While the EU, and Germany in particular, are pushing for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to be replaced, he is backed by the United States. In Brussels, Orbán is considered an obstacle to key strategic projects of the European Union. His stance on the Ukraine war is especially significant because he is blocking Ukraine’s fast-track accession to the EU. Brussels and Berlin are now placing their hopes in the opposition TISZA (Respect and Freedom) party. The pro-Brussels party is led by Péter Magyar on a platform of seeking to stabilise Hungary’s turbulent relationship with the EU and receive frozen funds. However, Magyar was himself a politician in Orbán’s Fidesz party and has often been described by observers as a “younger Orbán” who will not readily comply with every demand that comes from Brussels. Washington, on the other hand, is demonstratively backing Orbán. From an American perspective, the Hungarian strongman advances key elements of its National Security Strategy in Europe, which includes strengthening the far right. This tension has turned the election into a question of Hungary’s core foreign policy orientation with voters choosing between Brussels and Washington. Read more

WASHINGTON/BERLIN (own report) – Politicians from the AfD and other far-right parties in Europe have been busy networking with the US House of Representatives at a conference currently being held in Washington. The conference, entitled ‘Alliance of Sovereign Nations’ and billed as “a kind of anti-Davos”, was initiated by Republican Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna. Luna has been forging close ties with the AfD since last autumn. She is also supporting an attempted political asylum claim by a German activist who has close ties to the AfD and paints herself as a victim of state persecution in Germany. Meanwhile, an undersecretary at the US State Department has the task of campaigning against the alleged undermining of freedom of expression for right-wingers in Europe. One particular target of Sarah Rogers’ efforts in Europe is the European Union’s Digital Services Act (DSA). The DSA is a thorn in the side of American tech oligarchs such as Elon Musk. Rogers has also built contacts with AfD politicians. There are reports that she is distributing US State Department funds to organisations in Europe close to Trump. Recently, the department even welcomed for talks a figurehead of the far-right British hooligan scene who has multiple convictions. Read more

BERLIN (own report) – Europe is currently the strongest driver of arms expenditure worldwide – and Germany the biggest driver of military procurement in Europe. This development is charted in a recent analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based think-tank. The IISS report shows that, last year, Europe increased its military spending by 12.6 per cent. Germany, for its part, ramped up its military budget by a massive 18 per cent. The average global increase was 2.5 per cent. Consequently, Europe now accounts for 21 per cent of all military spending worldwide. If Berlin increases its defence budget to 150 billion euros in 2029 as planned, Germany alone would account for almost six per cent of arms expenditure, while having just one per cent of the world’s population. The IISS notes a strong procurement trend: European countries are increasingly having their armaments produced by domestic manufacturers as they seek to avoid dependency on US defence contractors. Exceptions to Europeanisation of arms supplies are products from the military aerospace industry, such as American F-35 fighter jets, although these are, of course, particularly expensive procurements. Economic experts have noted that the aim of creating a big arms industry that would generate an economic boom is destined to fail. A sustainable economic future would require much higher investment in education. However, this sector remains dramatically underfunded. Read more

WASHINGTON/TEL AVIV/BERLIN (own report) – The US and Israel are once again receiving the backing of the German government in their second war of aggression against Iran within nine months. The US-Israeli attack on Iran is clearly in breach of international law. Yet German Chancellor Friedrich Merz could only announce yesterday, Sunday, that he didn’t wish to make an “evaluation of the position under international law” regarding the war. “Now,” he said, “is not the time to lecture our partners and allies.” In contrast, he called on Iran to “immediately cease these indiscriminate attacks”. The Iranian regime may be called “murderous” but, in this conflict, is merely exercising its legitimate right to self-defence by launching missile strikes on US military bases and on Israel. By approving and backing the deadly attacks by the US and Israel in violation of international law, while rejecting Iran’s right to self-defence in accordance with the same international law, Merz has again contributed to the gradual colllapse of any legal process. Indeed, he is supporting for a US administration that in any case declares it doesn’t even recognise international law any more. The scrapping of legal norms goes hand in hand with the normalisation of decapitation strikes and bad-faith talks as a method of warfare. Once again, the first air strikes targeted Iran’s religious, governmenal and military leaders, while the US was still engaged in negotiations with Iran and pretended to be making progress. This behaviour is open to imitation by anyone waging wars in future. Read more

BERLIN/KIEV (own report) – Four years after Russian tanks entered Ukraine, demands by Germany and other European states are still preventing a negotiated end to the fighting. An article jointly penned by the foreign ministers of Germany, France and Poland argues that Ukraine can only achieve a “lasting and just” peace “from a position of strength”. However, a “position of strength” is not in sight for Kiev, so if it is to be achieved the war must grind on. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is convinced that the fighting will “only end when one of the two sides is exhausted”. In Ukraine itself, 40 per cent of the population now supports relinquishing the Donbas in exchange for Western security guarantees and a quick end to the war. The European Union, however, has been hardening its position. As a consequence, a negotiated solution looks increasingly unlikely. A recent discussion paper by EU Foreign Affairs Representative Kaja Kallas contains several demands on Moscow that would only be enforceable if Russia agreed to an almost unconditional surrender. The demand for a complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine is a case in point. Read more

BERLIN/BEIJING (own report) – Germany hopes to deepen its “comprehensive strategic partnership” with China and expand economic ties with the People’s Republic. This statement of intent has emerged from the talks held yesterday in Beijing between German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. What is more, relations between China and the EU as a whole may soon be improved again. The trigger for initiating rapprochement between Berlin and Beijing is the Trump administration’s continued economic attacks on Germany and the EU. They are forcing the German government to cooperate more closely with third countries, both economically and politically, if Germany is to avoid being permanently squeezed by the United States. Despite all the rivalries, Germany cannot avoid closer cooperation with the economic powerhouse China. Merz said in Beijing that he hoped economic differences would be resolved in future “through open dialogue with each other”. A major problem for Germany is its large and growing trade deficit with China. Another problem is that German businesses have to contend with strong Chinese competition in third markets. Read more

BERLIN/PARIS/WARSAW (own report) – German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul says France should pursue austerity, including more welfare cuts, in order to shift significant resources into rearmament. “Unfortunately,” Wadephul says, the French government’s “efforts” to reallocate money to the military budget have been “insufficient”: Paris is “called upon” to change course. The background to this incidence of open interference in France’s domestic affairs is a growing unease registered in several European countries over Germany’s huge military build-up, brazenly intended to turn the Federal Republic into a “military superpower” in just a few years, as a recent article in the US journal Foreign Affairs notes. Warnings could be heard from Paris back in the autumn: if Germany succeeded in becoming a military power, it would be “extremely dominant” within the European Union. And Wolfgang Ischinger, the head of the Munich Security Conference, confirmed only recently that he sensed, in conversations in France and Poland, that “old reservations are resurfacing” as policy circles express “concerns about German dominance”. EU diplomats are already diagnosing a “tectonic shift” on the continent. In France, the first public warnings about a “German Europe” are being voiced. Read more