BERLIN/WASHINGTON (our own report) – American energy experts are warning of a full-scale global energy crisis with prices for crude oil and natural gas skyrocketing. According to the US oil industry, there was enough capacity in the first six months of Washington’s war on Iran to compensate to some extent for the shortfalls caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. On the one hand, various Western states could draw on their strategic reserves; on the other, China has significantly reduced its imports, thereby easing demand pressures. But neither of these steps is likely to be sustainable. So further hikes in oil and gas prices have to be expected. Another critical factor is that Ukraine has managed to severely damage a number of Russian refineries with its drone attacks. This is leading to a diesel shortage: Russia, previously the world’s second-largest exporter, has completely halted diesel exports. While natural gas storage facilities in Germany and the EU are at their lowest levels ever for this time of year, Berlin and Brussels continue to insist on a total phase-out of Russian liquefied natural gas imports by early 2027. Most recent data shows that Russian supplies still account for 19 per cent of the EU’s liquefied natural gas imports. Read more

german-foreign-policy.com spoke to Ulrike Eifler about current developments in the anti-war movement in Europe and the role of trade unions within this movement. Eifler, who works in the Würzburg secretariat of the IG Metall union, has been campaigning for years for trade unions to pursue a resolute peace policy. There have recently been two union-backed anti-war conferences, in Paris (October 2025) and London (June 2026), which in her assessment have already contributed significantly to “building a Europe-wide movement against war”. They have, she says, succeeded in raising awareness within the trade unions of the need to counter war and militarisation. On the one hand, the exorbitant costs of militarisation lead directly to massive cutbacks in social spending; and, on the other, war itself is fundamentally “incompatible” with the progress achieved by the labour movement, not least the right to strike. Indeed, war threatens “the very existence of free trade unions”. As for “job security”, Eifler argues that employment must be “based on civilian peaceful production”, not “on murderous war production”. Looking at the many protests planned for the coming autumn, she warns that these activities against militarisation and social cuts should not be too fragmented. She urges all anti-war forces to pull together in combatting the warmongers. Read more

BRUSSELS/NUUK (our own report) – The European Union is consolidating its position in Greenland in a quiet power struggle with the US. Several European NATO member states, including Germany, have again launched military manoeuvres on the island. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was in Nuuk on Sunday and Monday to announce a funding pledge of 200 million euros, primarily for raw materials and infrastructure projects. Work on new infrastructure is needed to enable Greenland to transport raw materials out of the country. At the same time, a NATO manoeuvre began on Monday in which eleven European NATO member states are rehearsing operations on Greenlandic territory without any involvement whatsoever from American armed forces. The Bundeswehr is participating with military observers and logistical support. European efforts to exert influence include the signing of a new partnership agreement between the EU and Greenland. The background to these developments is the Trump administration’s as yet unrelenting push to annex Greenland. Trump is once again having maps published in which the island is shown as part of the US. Meanwhile a US oil company is now transporting drilling equipment to Greenland without authorisation from Nuuk, Danish autonomous territory’s seat of government. Read more

MAGDEBURG/BUCHAREST/MANCHESTER/GRAZ (our own report) – For the first time in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, a far-right party has secured over 40 per cent of the vote in a state election. In yesterday’s state election in Saxony-Anhalt, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) came first by a wide margin, with 43.8 per cent of the vote. In terms of seats in the Landtag, they have only narrowly missed the majority required to form a single-party government. With 39 out of a total of 83 parliamentary seats, the AfD has fallen just three seats short of an absolute majority. The right-wing surge reflects a trend that can also be observed across Europe: populations in deindustrialised, impoverished and structurally marginalised regions see no prospects for themselves and are turning against the ruling elites. But where there is no strong left-wing alternative commanding credibility amongst the disadvantaged communities, these voters will shift to the right. A clear example is Romania, where the far right dominates the poorer regions beyond the capital Bucharest. In the UK, too, there are plenty of run-down working-class neighbourhoods where people have moved sharply to the far right. Saxony-Anhalt is now following suit. An example of what bucks the trend can be found in Graz, Austria’s second-largest city, with its communist mayor. Read more

MOSCOW/BERLIN/LONDON (our own report) – The debate surrounding the drone attack on Leipzig Airport has once again raised the question of Russia’s red lines with regard to the Ukraine war. In recent years, Moscow has repeatedly warned Western powers not to cross its red lines. Chief among the moves considered unacceptable by the Kremlin is the willingness of Western powers to supply long-range missiles to Ukraine, enabling strikes targets deep into Russian territory. Russia says in this case it reserves the right to respond. Meanwhile, targets in the Russian heartland are being struck by long-range drones of British manufacture. Drones of this type are also being produced in Germany explicitly for export to Kiev. A Russian government adviser recently confirmed that there “sooner or later, there might be not only verbal but maybe some visible reaction from Russia towards the UK.” Cyber-attacks or “semi-military” measures were, he said, quite conceivable. The targets could be chosen asymmetrically. Should it be proven that the perpetrators at Leipzig Airport were actually working for Russian authorities, the incident could then be understood as such a Russian response to its red lines being crossed. And Germany would find itself one step further into war. Read more

KASSEL/COLOGNE (our own report) – Some two hundred gatherings took place yesterday, Tuesday, to mark the start of the Second World War. They serve as a starting signal for the protests against militarisation and war planned this autumn. Protest events of all kinds have been announced in numerous other European countries, including Germany, until the end of the year. They are all directed against the continent-wide massive arms build-up and the dismantling of social welfare systems directly linked to it. People in Germany are increasingly alarmed by concrete preparations for war. Anti-militarisation mobilisations will include school strikes, actions by dockworkers and large-scale demonstrations. Yesterday, Tuesday, a week of action against the unchecked escalation of weapons production began in Cologne under the slogan ‘Disarm Rheinmetall’, aimed at curbing Germany’s largest arms manufacturer. The militarisation drive is reshaping the Federal Republic, as seen for instance in last week’s announcement by Rheinmetall of its plans for the city of Kassel. Working in cooperation with the Hesse state government, Rheinmetall said it would be turning the Kassel region into a ‘Defence Hub North Hesse’. Until now, Kassel has been largely known as a peaceful museum city that hosts the ‘documenta’ art exhibitions. Read more

BERLIN (own report) – Protests are growing against the draft bill, approved by the federal government, to expand the powers of Germany’s intelligence agencies. Information security experts, medical associations, journalists, and opposition politicians are voicing strong criticism. The government aims to considerably broaden the scope of action for the German intelligence agencies through a new law. This includes facilitating the agencies overall access to IT-systems, extend data storage periods, and automatically evaluate data. Intelligence agencies will also be permitted to conduct so-called online searches in the future. The fact that, for the first time since the end of German fascism, the intelligence agencies are once again being authorized to carry out so-called operational measures is a decisive new development. In the name of countering so-called hybrid attacks, Berlin is continuing to blur the lines between the work of the police, the intelligence services and the military, and is increasingly erasing the distinction between external enemies and internal critics. The new intelligence services law is another step on the Federal Republic’s path toward so-called strategic autonomy – military and geopolitical independence from other nations, particularly the United States. Read more

BRUSSELS/WASHINGTON/BERLIN (our own report) – NATO is preparing for a nuclear build-up in Europe. The alliance is even considering the stationing of nuclear weapons near Russia’s borders. As reported at the end of last week, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte does not rule out the deployment of additional US nuclear weapons on the European continent. According to experts, new American nuclear bombs have already been sent covertly to the UK. Countries close to or on the border with Russia, including Finland and Lithuania, are being discussed as potential sites. Lithuania is already revising its constitution to make this legally possible. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently signalled his approval of this move. Rutte publicly admits that the plan is rather “delicate” in view of the threat posed by “nuclear-armed Russia”. The US has already replaced the bombs stored at Büchel with the new B61-12 variant. This weapon is supposed to be suited to a so-called “tactical” deployment, which can only mean lowering the threshold for commencement of a nuclear war. The infrastructure work taking place at Büchel is required to modernise US nuclear capabilities and will cost the German government billions. At the same time, France is also strengthening its own nuclear capabilities in a move coordinated with Germany. Read more

BERLIN/ROME (our own report) – The takeover battle for Commerzbank has been decided. Following its successful bid, Italy’s UniCredit has secured just under half of the voting rights and will now be in a position to take control of the supervisory board and executive board of Germany’s second-largest private-sector bank at the 2027 annual general meeting. Not having sufficient resources of its own, UniCredit was supported in this move by a network of international financial institutions, including Japan’s Nomura, France’s BNP Paribas and several US banks. This not only brings to an end a power struggle lasting almost two years between the major banks from Germany and Italy; the takeover also reflects an ongoing process of consolidation across the European banking sector. Whilst Italy’s UniCredit is positioning itself as a powerful new European banking group, Germany is increasingly on the back foot. Commerzbank is a key lender to the German Mittelstand, the country’s once thriving small and medium-sized enterprises. This cornerstone of the Frankfurt financial hub is now coming under foreign control. The conflict highlights a contradiction between European integration of the financial sector and the interests of nation states. The latter seek to retain some control over the centres of their economic decision-making. Read more

PARIS/BERLIN (our own report) – Germany and France have conducted their first concrete exercises to trial cooperation on potential French nuclear weapons deployments. On Friday the Franco-German Defence and Security Council held a meeting at Nörvenich Air Base, south-west of Cologne. The occasion was used for joint exercises in which two Mirage fighter jets from France’s nuclear forces and two German Eurofighters performed coordinated flight operations, including aerial refuelling. The deployment of German military personnel as observers on a French nuclear manoeuvre is planned for this autumn. The underlying military doctrine, called by the French ‘forward deterrence’ (‘dissuasion avancée’), was introduced by President Emmanuel Macron and publicly unveiled on 2 March. It provides for the sharing of procedures and practices with other European states, including Germany. However, participating European states are excluded from taking part in decision-making regarding the actual use of nuclear weapons, or in the planning of any nuclear strike operations. Here, Paris retains sole command, which is why Berlin had long declined to participate. Domestically, discussions are still ongoing in Germany about an exclusively ‘German bomb’. Read more