LONDON/BERLIN (Own report) - German business circles are vigorously pushing for a successful trade and partnership agreement with Great Britain. German businesses are already registering annual losses in the billions, because the EU has not yet agreed on regulations for its post-Brexit economic relations with the United Kingdom. The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) estimates a slowdown in Germany's economic growth at 0,8 percentage points since the referendum in June 2016. It could reach around 0,6 percentage points in 2021, alone, if no agreement can be reached by the end of this year, according to the DIW. Current estimates predict this year's overall growth to be at 0,7 percent. Nevertheless, Brussels is pushing its luck by insisting that London make contractual adjustments to fit EU norms and standards - a step the British government, having gained independence through the Brexit, strictly rejects. The German financial sector's gains through Brexit have turned out much smaller than had been hoped. Read more

LONDON/BERLIN (Own report) - Following the electoral victory of Britain's Conservatives under Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the German government is now urging a continuation of its close cooperation with that country. Foreign Minister Heiko Maas expressed his hopes that the United Kingdom "remains a close partner." Chancellor Angela Merkel is "looking forward to our continued cooperation, for friendship, and a close partnership between our countries." Berlin needs Great Britain's political and military capabilities for implementing Germany's European global policy projects. The British armed forces are still considered to be the most powerful in Europe and London still has considerable influence on global policy. Political and economic examples show that disregarding Britain's interests can push London into direct rivalry to Berlin. This factor is now all the more important, because Brexit provides the United Kingdom economic and political alternatives to cooperation with the EU. Read more

BERLIN/LONDON/EDINBURGH (Own report) - Berlin's foreign policy is in support of Scottish nationalists, preparing to hold a second referendum to secede from the United Kingdom. Last week, Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of the Scottish regional government and chairperson of the Scottish National Party (SNP), was received in the German capital for confidential talks with representatives of the German foreign policy establishment, including with Michael Roth (SPD), Minister of State in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Officially, the meetings were focused on the Brexit, bitterly opposed by Sturgeon and the Scottish nationalists. However, Sturgeon was, in fact, also pleading for support for her secessionist project and to bring Scotland, as an independent country into the EU. About three years ago, German government representatives had already been in support of this plan. However, a reliable Scottish majority, needed for this project, is nowhere in sight. Read more

BERLIN/LONDON/PARIS (Own report) - Brexit will reduce by one third the EU's share of global capital markets and will shift relations within the EU in France's favor, as was revealed in a recent study on the impact the UK's departure will have on the Union's financial sector. Brexit will therefore reduce the EU's share of global capital market activities to 14 percent - around one third the size of the US and roughly the same as China. France will become number one among the EU-27 - a bit ahead of Germany. The shrinkage can also be attributed to the fact that the EU was unable to induce major banks and other financial institutions, on a large scale, to relocate from London onto the continent. Brussels has tried to use strict regulations, stipulating that financial transactions within the EU may only be conducted by legally independent entities within an EU country. However, the financial sector has limited its relocation onto the continent to only the bare essentials. The anticipated banking boom, for example, in Frankfurt, is not materializing. Read more

BERLIN/LONDON (Own report) - Germany's Minister of the Economy, Peter Altmaier, warns of the consequences a "hard" Brexit would have on Germany, and sees the danger of the loss of "thousands of jobs." Brussels and London must absolutely "prevent the big crash at the last moment," declared Altmaier yesterday. The Federation of German Industries (BDI) had already warned that a hard Brexit could cost Germany a half-percentage point in growth - €17 billion this year alone. For months, think tanks have been pointing out that Germany would be the country most affected on the continent, if the United Kingdom makes an unregulated exit. Germany possibly may have to expect double-digit billions in annual losses. Most recently, the Bertelsmann Foundation assumed that the losses could be broken down to €115 per inhabitant of Germany. Those losses are looming at a time, when the German economy is in danger of slipping into a recession. Berlin and Brussels could prevent a hard Brexit by setting a time limit on the "backstop," however, they are still hoping for a second referendum - and upping the ante. Read more

BERLIN/LONDON/PARIS/ROME (Own report) - London's government crisis escalated yesterday under the pressure of Berlin and the EU’s unaccomplishable Brexit requirements. Prime Minster Theresa May has barely survived a vote of confidence, which was ultimately triggered by the so-called backstop. Brussels insists on a regulation, which could indefinitely subjugate Great Britain to a customs union, without an option for a unilateral withdrawal and erect a trade border between two areas of the United Kingdom. These provisions are in Germany's interests, but they will plunge Great Britain into chaos. The current government crisis in France is largely due to the austerity programs imposed by Berlin on Paris - while refusing to make any concessions at the EU level. In France and Great Britain, the extreme right is profiting, like in Italy, where Berlin’s drastic austerity dictates, have already crushed the traditional political establishment. Read more

LONDON/BRUSSELS/BERLIN (Own report) - The EU's heads of states and governments were again unable to make progress in the Brexit negotiations last Wednesday, provoking strong criticism from the German business community. Their only proposal was to prolong the transitional period another year, which is out of the question for London, because this would cost the UK additional billions of pounds. The EU is "too inflexible" in the Brexit negotiations, criticized the head economist of Commerzbank. It is a "stickler for principles," even though it has itself "stretched the rules to the point of becoming unrecognizable" - such as those of the currency union. Commentaries assume that Brussels seeks to set a deterrent example. The EU sees itself "too unattractive," to be able to prevent other countries from leaving by other means. At the same time, Brussels is running the risk of the Brexit negotiations collapsing, which would cause serious losses, particularly to German industry. Experts do not rule out German export losses in the double-digit billions. Read more

LONDON/FRANKFURT ON THE MAIN (Own report) - Berlin seeks the relocation of numerous banks from London to Frankfurt on the Main and the promotion of the Hessian metropolis to Europe's strongest banking center. With five and a half months left until the ultimate British exit from the EU, this has still to materialize. Initially, the German financial sector had hoped that with the Brexit, financial institutes located in London would relocate a large number - up to 5-digits - of their employees to Frankfurt. In fact, recent studies have disclosed that only 630 financial jobs have left London for the continent. Although Frankfurt has risen to the rank of the tenth global finance market, it lags insurmountably far behind London. According to insiders, the attempt to compel other financial institutions to move to the continent is linked to the EU's refusal to take precautions for cross-border financial affairs, against the possibility of a "hard" Brexit. Brussels is taking a risk of losing dozens of trillions of euros and jeopardizing Europe's financial stability. Read more

LONDON/BERLIN (Own report) - The German government still has no evidence to substantiate serious allegations it used to justify its participation in the mass expulsion of Russian diplomats from several western countries. In its response to a parliamentary interpellation, the government admits it has no findings of its own on the Salisbury nerve gas attack other than the alleged evidence presented by the British government. At the same time, the "arguments" that have been presented so far to suggest Russian guilt are loosing their credibility. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), for example, had to contradict the claim of its director general that up to a half-cup of novichok was used in Salisbury. The assumption that only Russia could have produced the neurotoxin has been refuted, since it became known that Germany had also been in possession of the agent. These unproven allegations show, more than anything else, an unrestrained willingness to escalate the power struggle with Moscow. Read more

LONDON/BERLIN/BRUSSELS (Own report) - Fierce power struggles over EU foreign policy orientation and leadership accompany western threats against Russia following the Salisbury poison assassination attempt. With its accusations of Russia, London has succeeded in imposing "a united western foreign policy approach under British leadership," a leading German daily has noted. Great Britain has become the "West's new front-line state." After leaving the EU, the UK is presently setting course for its ensuing European policy, by focusing not only on a military treaty with France, but also another with Poland, aimed against Russia. Berlin is maneuvering: On the one hand, it is closing ranks against Moscow and, on the other, it is not willing to cede leadership of EU foreign policy. "Good and close collaboration between Russia and Germany" is very "important," the German president declared, thus marking a first counterpoint to British policy. Read more