BERLIN/WASHINGTON/TEHRAN (our own report) – The naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz announced by US President Trump has met with approval in Berlin. Steps by the United States were “long overdue” when it came to depriving Iran of any “use” of the strait and any revenues that Tehran can gain by exerting control, said CDU foreign policy expert Norbert Röttgen yesterday, Sunday. Trump had just declared that the US Navy would prevent all ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The move to a naval blockade emerged from the breakdown of negotiations to resolve the conflict between Washington and Tehran. The US broke off talks by the United States over the weekend because Iran was not prepared accept “a deal”, i.e. to comply fully with US demands. The American air force would, Trump had already threatened, target bridges and power stations. He would bomb the country “back to the Stone Age”. The meeting in Islamabad took place under the shadow of Trump’s apocalyptic threat that “Iran’s civilisation will die”. The language sparked dismay and revulsion worldwide. Yet Trump’s stance met with a certain degree of understanding within the German government. Trump again issued an ultimatum on Sunday that without a deal his forces would “finish off the little that is left of Iran”. Read more

BERLIN/PARIS/TEHRAN (our report) – The first voices are being heard in Berlin for German participation in a Strait of Hormuz naval mission as demanded by US President Trump. It is “imperative”, claims CDU defence policy expert Thomas Röwekamp, to “militarily defend” freedom of navigation in the narrow waters off southern Iran. And this imperative means that “a German contribution is necessary”. Such a decision would run counter to the German government’s current stance. The ruling Christian Democratic-Social Democrat coalition has initially ruled out any German involvement in potential operations by Western forces in the Strait of Hormuz. Experts are pointing out that up to twelve warships would be required to escort a convoy of five to ten tankers through the narrow sea passage. Even such a strong naval presence would offer no guarantee of safety. Iranian forces could attack from very close range. An alternative strategy would involve a US invasion of the Iranian coast. ‘Boots on the ground’ would, however, once again embroil US ground troops in a protracted Middle Eastern war. As energy and fertilizer prices soar, France is meanwhile seeking to forge a naval coalition, including Arab states, to intervene in securing the Strait of Hormuz – but only for a time when the fighting has subsided. Paris, like other Western governments, is refusing to be sucked into the immediate hot war. Read more

WASHINGTON/TEL AVIV/BERLIN (own report) – The US and Israel are once again receiving the backing of the German government in their second war of aggression against Iran within nine months. The US-Israeli attack on Iran is clearly in breach of international law. Yet German Chancellor Friedrich Merz could only announce yesterday, Sunday, that he didn’t wish to make an “evaluation of the position under international law” regarding the war. “Now,” he said, “is not the time to lecture our partners and allies.” In contrast, he called on Iran to “immediately cease these indiscriminate attacks”. The Iranian regime may be called “murderous” but, in this conflict, is merely exercising its legitimate right to self-defence by launching missile strikes on US military bases and on Israel. By approving and backing the deadly attacks by the US and Israel in violation of international law, while rejecting Iran’s right to self-defence in accordance with the same international law, Merz has again contributed to the gradual colllapse of any legal process. Indeed, he is supporting for a US administration that in any case declares it doesn’t even recognise international law any more. The scrapping of legal norms goes hand in hand with the normalisation of decapitation strikes and bad-faith talks as a method of warfare. Once again, the first air strikes targeted Iran’s religious, governmenal and military leaders, while the US was still engaged in negotiations with Iran and pretended to be making progress. This behaviour is open to imitation by anyone waging wars in future. Read more

BERLIN/WASHINGTON/TEHRAN (own report) – The US has joined Israel’s war of aggression on Iran. And by approving US strikes, the German government has endorsed a second violation of international law within ten days. “Our aim continues to be to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon,” reads a joint statement issued by Germany, France and the United Kingdom yesterday, Sunday. It demands that Tehran should immediately engage in talks leading to an agreement that addresses all concerns associated with its nuclear programme. Yet Iran had already been in the midst of negotiations with the United States until those talks were stopped by Israel’s attacks. On top of this, a negotiating process with the three largest Western European states was also wrecked by the US bombing raids. In fact, the assaults by Israel and by the US have not only violated and further undermined international law but have also discredited diplomacy in general. They have seriously damaged the future of diplomatic efforts worldwide. Moreover, Israel’s pursuit of “decapitation”, the elimination of an adversary’s military and political leaders through targeted assassinations, only worsens what is becoming common practice in warfare. As for the use of violence to enforced denuclearisation, experts now believe Iran will want to accelerate its push for nuclear armament as the only way to prevent such attacks in future. Read more

BERLIN/TEHRAN/TEL AVIV (own report) - The EU and several G7 states are preparing new sanctions against Iran, partly in response to German pressure. This move follows Iran’s attack on Israel last weekend. The missile and drone bombardment was the first time Iran has directly targeted Israeli territory, although the two states have been engaged in violent clashes for many years. Since 2013, and increasingly since 2017, Israel has been hitting Iranian positions in Syria. Since 7 October 2023 the Israelis have focused on targeted assassinations of Iranian commanders, killing almost a dozen by the end of March alone. The airstrike on an Iranian consulate building in Damascus on 1 April killed seven Iranian commanders, some of them high-ranking. It marks “an unprecedented escalation” by Tel Aviv, notes the London-based think-tank Chatham House. It could yet prove to be “the spark that ignites the Middle East”. In response, the West has taken no action against Israel for, not least, violating the Vienna Convention on diplomatic sites. Iran’s retaliatory strikes – a choreographed show of strength communicated in advance – immediately triggered Western punishment. The double standards once again on display have given rise to some fierce criticism from the wider international community. Read more

BERLIN/TEL AVIV/TEHERAN (Own report) – EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s remarks during her trip to Israel last Friday comes under sharp criticism within the EU. Von der Leyen stressed Israel’s right to self-defense, but did not mention its obligation to comply with international law in operations in the Gaza Strip. This corresponds to Berlin’s official position, but torpedoes EU decisions. Her stance weighs heavily: Israel’s cutting Gaza off from water, energy and food is in violation of international law, as is the fact that countless civilians are falling victim to its bombardments. EU politicians warn that von der Leyen is once again exposing the Union to accusations of applying double standards in the Global South. This comes while the Gaza war risks spreading to other countries in the region. Iran is in the process of coordinating anti-Israel forces, for example in Lebanon. Israeli intelligence officials regret having once supported assassination and sabotage operations on Iranian territory: These acts had driven both countries into their current confrontation. Read more

RIYADH/TEHRAN/BEIJING (Own report) – With China gaining influence at the Persian Gulf through its successful mediation in the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran is not only calling into question US domination, but also Germany's position in that region. Beijing has achieved initial success in bringing about rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran. Both are now intending to resume diplomatic relations and are negotiating far-reaching cooperation. It they succeed, US efforts at establishing a sort of Arab NATO against Iran, are about to fail. For decades, the Federal Republic of Germany has also been benefitting from US domination in the Middle East, as it could always procure crude oil and natural gas from the region, whenever needed and engage in profitable business deals. Most recently, a former Siemens CEO temporarily served as economic advisor to Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, the actual ruler of the country. It is uncertain whether the receptiveness to Berlin's interests in the Middle East will continue despite the loss of U.S. influence. The close alliance between Saudi Arabia and the United States has been in a crisis for some time. Read more

BERLIN/TEHRAN/ABU DHABI (Own report) - The incoming German government should intensify its efforts to gain influence at the Persian Gulf, thereby assuring that the EU can be "an actor" in the "global contest" for obtaining regional power. This demand is raised by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) in its current position paper, due to the power vacuum that is developing from the US focus on its power struggle against China, and therefore withdrawing from the Middle East. The People's Republic of China, on the other hand, is strengthening its position, not only in Iran, with which it had concluded a 25-year "strategic partnership" last March and is seeking means for circumventing US sanctions, but in Arab Gulf countries as well. Beijing, for example, is also expanding its activities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and in Saudi Arabia - and is supplying them with 5G technology from the Huawei corporation, that Washington is so fiercely opposing. Appeals to Berlin and Brussels to strengthen the EU's position in the region, have so far been in vain. The DGAP warns that in light of the global "rebalancing of power, " raising the question of whose order will prevail. Read more

BERLIN/TEHRAN/BEIJING (Own report) - Berlin and the EU could permanently lose out on political influence and substantial business deals in Iran, due to new agreements between Iran and China, on the one hand, and to the ongoing US blockade of Tehran on the other. The People's Republic of China has not only been able to somewhat maintain its Iranian oil imports despite US sanctions, and, since the beginning of the year, also register a significant increase. Over the weekend, Beijing even concluded a comprehensive cooperation agreement with Tehran, which provides for huge investments and could, in the long run, procure a long-term dominant economic influence for China in Iran. Germany's attempt to sidestep US sanctions in favor of German business with Iran has failed, with no perspective for relaunching its traditionally lucrative economic activities in that country. Experts complain that the Biden administration is even blocking necessary humanitarian imports of food and Covid-19 vaccines. Read more

BERLIN/WASHINGTON/TEHERAN (Own report) - The German government is pushing for a quick return to the nuclear deal with Iran once designated US President Joe Biden takes office. Already months ago, Biden had declared his willingness to do so. German companies are hoping for lucrative business opportunities, which would also help them to weather the Corona crisis. However, obstacles persist in Washington, such as the presumed continued Republican majority in the US Senate and a new wave of sanctions initiated by outgoing President Donald Trump. Thus, supplementary, coercive measures, independent of the nuclear deal, would, in fact, be imposed on Iran's entire oil sector. Biden is raising the demand - supported also by Berlin - that Iran refrain from seeking regional influence and limit its missile program massively. Teheran is unwilling to comply and - given its experience in dealings with the West - prefers a "look east" policy. Read more