The United Front against China

Pacific Skies

The Luftwaffe will be joining with the air forces of France and Spain in this year’s “Indo-Pacific deployment”, which is planned as a round-the-world operation. As far as is known so far, the “Pacific Skies deployment” is set to comprise around fifty aircraft, 32 of which will be provided by Germany’s Luftwaffe. According to the air force chief, Lieutenant General Ingo Gerhartz, war exercises are initially scheduled in Alaska, followed by further drills in Japan before the air fleet will be split up again.[1] Gerhartz says that part of this fleet will then take part in the Exercise Pitch Black in Australia, a major multinational war exercise for which a German squadron was already deployed back in 2022. Pitch Black is part of regular exercises in which Australia prepares for a possible war against China or other potential adversaries.[2] Another part of the fleet involved in Pacific Skies is to move on to Hawaii and take part in RIMPAC 2024, a large-scale US manoeuvre in which the Bundeswehr has again been participating since 2016. German units engaged in RIMPAC have previously rehearsed the “liberation” of an island, playing out a scenario in which the island was held by a militia called Draco. Draco, which means dragon, is generally regarded as a symbol for China.[3] In the final component of Pacific Skies, the German air force is scheduled to join a manoeuvre in India for the first time.[4]

Pacific Waves

The navy is also planning an active role in the “Indo-Pacific deployment”, which again involves a round-the-world operation, designated “Pacific Waves”. While an earlier Asia-Pacific voyage, which the frigate “Bayern” undertook from August 2021 to February 2022, was limited to the deployment of a single warship, this year two warships are to set sail across the world’s oceans: the frigate “Baden-Württemberg” and the supply and combat support ship “Frankfurt am Main”. The “Baden-Württemberg”, which belongs to the F125 class, is the most modern vessel type in the Bundesmarine [5] and capable of cruising in distant waters for up to two years if properly supplied. It specialises in combating piracy and in counterinsurgency operations in coastal areas, but lacks certain capabilities such as air defence. This is why the Bundeswehr decided to dispatch the older F124-class frigate “Hessen” to the Red Sea to repel Houthi drones and missiles instead of an F125 naval asset.[6] If tensions in the Asia-Pacific region were to escalate into open warfare, the “Baden-Württemberg” would be an easy target for the Chinese anti-ship missiles, considered by experts to be extremely effective.

Naval manoeuvres and influencing

The route to be taken by the Pacific Waves flotilla is only known in outline. The naval ships will presumably enter the Pacific Ocean through the Panama Canal and initially set course for Hawaii. This is where they will support the air force units taking part in RIMPAC 2024. According to Vice Admiral and Naval Inspector Jan Christian Kaack, the next stops will be Japan, Singapore and probably Australia. Germany has been cooperating militarily with these US allies for many years. The latest information indicates further ports of call in Malaysia and Indonesia.[7] The German Navy lists five key objectives for the Pacific Waves deployment: committing to “freedom of navigation”; participating in the US-led measures to monitor compliance with the UN embargo on North Korea; joining the German-French naval task force DEFRAM, as part of the European Union’s maritime presence in the western Indian Ocean; taking part in naval exercises with regional partners; and cultivating military diplomacy through port visits in order to strengthen international relations. Parallel to the Pacific Waves programme there will be aircraft carriers from France (the Charles de Gaulle) and Italy (the Cavour) sailing in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.[8]

Not a question of either/or

The Bundeswehr is intensifying its military activities in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, while at the same time still expanding troop presence and manoeuvres in Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. Air Force Inspector Gerhartz spells out this more muscular approach: Germany’s intervention priorities are not “a question of either/or” but a “a statement of both-and”.[9] In other words, while Berlin conjures up the future scenario of Germany joining a war against Russia, it in no way rules out a parallel involvement in a possible war with China.

The First Island Chain

The danger of such a war in the East has been steadily growing. The United States is intensifying efforts to forge a solid alliance against China, with Japan, the Philippines and even the south-eastern Chinese island of Taiwan as links in the so-called First Island Chain of countries and territories. This is a containment strategy that dates back to the Cold War and would make the People's Republic vulnerable to attacks on a broad front. The power that controls the chain, now the United States, can encircle the Chinese navy along the Chinese coast and deny its freedom of movement. Washington has recently moved to boost its presence on the Philippines and create a powerful naval, army and air force base. This significantly increases the military squeeze on China (german-foreign-policy.com reported [10]). The conflict between Beijing and Manila over a reef in the South China Sea known as the Second Thomas Shoal currently threatens to exacerbate tensions. Recent reports show that Manila brusquely rejected offers from the Chinese government to negotiate a peaceful settlement to the conflict. This stance is presumably politically coordinated with Washington.[11]

Alliances and manoeuvres

Just last week, the United States significantly intensified its military alliances in the Pacific. Firstly, US President Joe Biden received Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the White House in order to advance not only economic and technological but also military cooperation. Australia, in particular, will also be involved in the joint activities of the respective armed forces.[12] Biden then brought Kishida and the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, together with him for a trilateral summit. A focus of the meeting was again closer military cooperation. Biden and Kishida pledged economic and technological support for Marcos. It was mentioned on the sidelines of the talks that the US, Japan, the Philippines and Australia had only recently conducted joint war exercises in the South China Sea. Further manoeuvres are to follow. The New York Times spoke explicitly of the creation of a “united front against China”.[13] This year’s Indo-Pacific deployment shows that the German armed forces are now joining this front.

[1] Helena Legarda: The Bundeswehr Returns to the Indo-Pacific. ip-quarterly.com 20.03.2024.

[2] See also: Die zweite Front der Bundeswehr.

[3] See also: War Games in the Pacific.

[4] Pacific Skies/Pacific Waves: Auftakt zum Indo-Pacific Deployment 2024. bundeswehr.de 22.03.2024.

[5] Alex Luck: German Navy Chief Talks Indo-Pacific Deployment, Round The World-Sail. navalnews.com 05.02.2024.

[6] See also: Gaining war experience.

[7] Pacific Skies/Pacific Waves: Auftakt zum Indo-Pacific Deployment 2024. bundeswehr.de 22.03.2024.

[8] Alex Luck: German Navy Chief Talks Indo-Pacific Deployment, Round The World-Sail. navalnews.com 05.02.2024.

[9] Pacific Skies/Pacific Waves: Auftakt zum Indo-Pacific Deployment 2024. bundeswehr.de 22.03.2024.

[10] See also: Spiel mit dem Feuer.

[11] Franco Jose C. Baroña: PH ignored China’s proposals on sea row. manilatimes.net 11.03.2024.

[12] Peter Baker, Michael D. Shear: Biden and Kishida Agree to Tighten Military and Economic Ties to Counter China. nytimes.com 10.04.2024.

[13] Michael D. Shear: Biden Aims to Project United Front Against China at White House Summit. nytimes.com 11.04.2024.