“Keep the Ukrainians in the fight”
G7 foreign ministers are looking for options to avert a Ukrainian defeat. Experts believe that Russia can soon break through the frontline.
BERLIN/KIEV (own report) – Ahead of the meeting of G7 foreign ministers, beginning today on the island of Capri, there are frank warnings of a Ukrainian defeat on the battlefield. Alarm is being voiced both in Ukraine and in Western capitals. Kiev is “at great risk” of losing the war in the course of this year, declared a high-ranking British military officer at the weekend. Senior Ukrainian officers had previously warned that the Russian armed forces could soon be able to smash open sections of the front. A Russian advance into large parts of eastern and even central Ukraine is no longer ruled out. Experts criticise the way Western accounts have “talked up the situation in Ukraine from the outset”. The Ukrainian officers complain in particular that the impact of new Western weaponry is frequently overestimated – often based on a traditional bullishness and self-certainty. It is now clear, for example, that the Russian military has learnt how to eliminate Storm Shadow or SCALP cruise missiles, targeting them with a high hit rate. The G7 foreign ministers are now looking at options for preventing a collapse of the Ukrainian front. Foreign Minister Baerbock is proposing a worldwide “mapping of all Patriot systems” to secure faster supplies from third countries.
Russia readying for an offensive
Assessments have emerged over recent weeks that Ukrainian troops will not be able to hold their frontline position much longer. A Russian breakthrough would have far-reaching consequences over the coming weeks and months. The Axel Springer-owned online portal Politico, for instance, quoted high-ranking Ukrainian officers at the beginning of April as saying that the Russian forces would soon be able to “penetrate the front line and crash it in some parts”.[1] At the weekend, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Colonel General Olexander Syrskyi, confirmed that “the situation on the eastern front in recent days has grown considerably more tense.” This was, he said, due to “the significant activisation of offensive action by the enemy following presidential elections in Russia.”[2] Western military officials are also beginning to speak out more candidly. For example, the BBC quoted the former head of the Joint Forces Command, General Richard Barrons, as saying there is a “serious risk” of Ukraine losing the war later this year.[3] Barrons said he could not rule out a major Russian breakthrough along the frontline, resulting in an unstoppable advance into the centre of Ukraine.
Attacks on power stations
In preparing for an offensive, Russian forces have recently carried out large-scale attacks on Ukrainian energy supplies. They are no longer executing limited strikes on substations and transformers, as happened last winter, but destroying whole power plants. Most recently, on the night of 10 to 11 April, the Trypillya thermal power plant, which supplies the Kiev region and beyond, was wiped out. Shortly before, the Smiyiv plant, supplying energy to the Kharkiv region, had met the same fate. According to official figures, 80 per cent of Ukraine’s power plants are now no longer operational. Whereas, last winter, it was possible to fix or replaced substations and transformers, the reconstruction of power plants will take years.[4] Experts from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) believe that the strategy behind the attacks is partly in retaliation for the long-range Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. It also flows from a Russian objective to force the Zelensky government into a choice between “either supplying the arms industry or the population”, since both simultaneously is now hardly possible.[5] Shortfalls in arms production will weaken Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against a possibly imminent Russian advance.
“Talked up from the outset”
In view of the looming Russian offensive, some military experts have sharply criticised the West’s over-confident assessments of the war in Ukraine to date. One such critic is Markus Reisner, an officer in the Austrian Armed Forces who teaches at the Theresia Military Academy in Vienna and has become a familiar source of expertise. The analyst now says, "We have been talking up the situation in Ukraine from the outset.”[6] In his view, “the resources that have flowed into the country from outside” have always been “insufficient for a war of attrition” – and a situation that “has existed since around April 2022.” Moreover, he finds that too many illusions have been created about the poor state of the Russian armed forces. The media had, for example, focused heavily on a few blunders, such as the use of private mobile phones by Russian military personnel that enabled a deadly Ukrainian strike on a facility containing large Russian troop numbers. The impression was created in the West of a Russian “trend” towards recklessness and incompetence, even though the case was actually “an isolated incident”. “We picked out one event and drew from it general conclusions about the state of the Russian army,” argues Reisner. Being “so naive”, he concludes, has resulted in miscalculations about the fighting power of Russia’s armed forces.
The hyping of Western weapons
According to the Ukrainian officers interviewed by Politico, Western commentators have frequently overestimated the impact of new supplies of weapons. The media, including the German media, has tended to assert game-changing effectiveness, for instance placing great hopes in cruise missiles. “We used Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles (supplied by Britain and France) successfully,” says one Ukrainian officer, “but just a short time.”[7] The Russian military quickly investigated their mode of action and found ways of stopping them. They were soon rendered largely harmless. Reisner reports that the Russian armed forces are now able to “bring down a good fifty per cent of Ukrainian missiles with electronic jamming systems,” while “half of the remainder are then shot down by their air defence system.”[8] Although the Ukrainian armed forces do manage “a spectacular hit here and there”, this damage is not enough “to make the enemy buckle”. “The Russians,” the Ukrainian officers point out, “are always studying. They don’t give us a second chance.”[9] One should not believe “the hype that they are just sending troops into the meat grinder,” he added, “They do that, too, ... but they learn and refine.”
Mapping patriot systems
The war in Ukraine is firmly on the agenda of the G7 foreign ministers meeting that begins today, Wednesday, on the Italian island of Capri. Seeking to avert a Ukrainian defeat, politicians are considering options, not least support to bolster Ukraine’s air defences. The German Defence Ministry had already announced last Saturday that it would be providing another Patriot air defence system from the Bundeswehr’s own stocks. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock will urge the G7 summit to discuss a Europe-wide or even worldwide “mapping of all Patriot systems”. She wants to encourage those countries that possess such systems to hand them over “quickly” to Kiev.[10] Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg are also expected to attend the meeting. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has been quoted as saying that a favourable peace agreement will not be achieved if Ukraine cannot prevent a defeat. The task was still, he said, to get Russia “out of Ukraine”.[11] Just how this is to be achieved remains unclear. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron has previously put it like this: “The best thing we can do this year is to keep the Ukrainians in this fight.”[12] The West is still going for broke.
[1] Jamie Dettmer: Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing. politico.eu 03.04.2024.
[2] Tom Balmforth: Ukraine’s army chief says eastern front under intense Russian assault. reuters.com 13.04.2024.
[3] Frank Gardner: Ukraine could face defeat in 2024. Here’s how that might look. bbc.co.uk 14.04.2024.
[4], [5] Christian Mölling, András Rácz: Warum Russland die Energieversorgung zerstört. zdf.de 11.04.2024.
[6] Hauke Friederichs, Maxim Kireev: „Wir haben uns die Lage in der Ukraine schöngeredet“. zeit.de 15.04.2024.
[7] Jamie Dettmer: Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing. politico.eu 03.04.2024.
[8] Hauke Friederichs, Maxim Kireev: „Wir haben uns die Lage in der Ukraine schöngeredet“. zeit.de 15.04.2024.
[9] Jamie Dettmer: Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing. politico.eu 03.04.2024.
[10] Trotz knapper Bestände: Deutschland liefert weiteres Patriot-System an Ukraine. berliner-zeitung.de 13.04.2024.
[11] Crispian Balmer, Angelo Amante: Wars to dominate G7 talks as foreign ministers seek path to peace. ca.news.yahoo.com 15.04.2024.
[12] Mark Landler: Cameron, on U.S. Trip, Takes a Risk and Meets With Trump. nytimes.com 09.04.2024.
