Transatlantic contradictions
The AfD achieves a national breakthrough: over 20 per cent, the second strongest force in the Bundestag. The far-right party is openly supported by Trump’s team – a dilemma for future Chancellor Merz.
BERLIN/WASHINGTON (own report) - The AfD has become the first party of the extreme right in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany to achieve over 20 per cent in a Bundestag election. It is now the second-strongest parliamentary group in the new parliament. This result confirms that the political balance is shifting to the right – across the EU and also in Germany. Far-right parties have even become the strongest force in some member states. They are the forces behind the prime minister of Italy and a number of ministers in other EU countries, both in the EU and also particularly in Germany. And, for the first time since 1949, extreme right elements are openly supported by members of the US administration. Vice President JD Vance gave his backing to the AfD ten days ago on the fringes of the Munich Security Conference. Elon Musk publicly called for AfD votes on the eve of the election. Friedrich Merz (CDU), who must be regarded as the next German Chancellor, announced to the US media that he intends to do something about Musk’s interference in the German election campaign. He would not, Merz said, rule out confrontations with the Trump administration after assuming power. As for the American side, their sharp economic and political threats against Berlin amount to an attempt to relegate Germany and the EU to the role of fringe players in global politics.
A trend Europe-wide
The most drastic aspect of yesterday’s Bundestag elections is the numerical breakthrough of the Alternative for Germany (AfD). It has become the first extreme right-wing party in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany to receive such a substantial vote. Gaining just over 20 per cent, the party is now the second strongest parliamentary group in the new Bundestag after the CDU/CSU bloc (28.6 per cent). This reflects a shifting balance of power that has been seen in other European countries where the extreme right has also gained significantly in strength. In Austria, the FPÖ, with a 28.9 per cent share, actually became the strongest party in the most recent national election, held on 29 September 2024. In France, the Rassemblement National (RN) also established itself as the strongest party last summer, with 29.3 per cent in the first round and 32.1 per cent in the second. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is the leader of the extreme right-wing Fratelli d'Italia (FdI). In the Netherlands the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV) has become the strongest force in the governing coalition. In Finland, the Finns Party is part of the government, while in Sweden the Sweden Democrats can make or break a minority government. The Fidesz party of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is now also regarded as part of Europe’s extreme right-wing landscape. The stunning electoral success of the AfD forms another component of this trend.
With US support
What is also new is that the far right in Europe is being supported by the US administration and its close supporters. Backing for the AfD’s campaign came, on Saturday, from Elon Musk. After making several prominent statements in favour of the party (german-foreign-policy.com reported [1]), Musk posted on X immediately before the election his pick: “AfD!” He also chose to repost a right-wing activist who demanded, “Let’s make the West great again!”, referencing the expected huge swing to the AfD.”[2] After Vice President JD Vance, in his speech ten days ago at the Munich Security Conference, had called for “firewalls” against the far right to be torn down in Europe, he met in person with AfD leader Alice Weidel for thirty minutes.[3] On Thursday, at this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) of the US Republicans, which has been dominated by forces close to Trump for years, Vance said that “friendship” between states depends “on shared values”. His point was that, with regard to any firewalls to prevent cooperation with the far right, anyone who “silences their own people” does not share the “values” of the Unite States.[4] CPAC showcased various representatives of the European far right. And Steve Bannon, a Trump senior advisor in his first term, attracted media attention with a gesture widely understood to be a Hitler salute.[5]
Banished to a back-seat role
The pressure from the Trump administration for the Berlin political establishment to finally open up to the AfD and let the far right into power has put the CDU-CSU’s candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, in a difficult position. Merz, who chaired of the transatlantic lobby organisation Atlantic Bridge for a decade and headed the supervisory board of the German branch of the BlackRock investment company, is clearly a proven Transatlanticist. Yet he finds himself seeking the office of Federal Chancellor at a time when Washington has begun not only to fiercely attack and severely damage the EU, including Germany at its core, but also to brazenly allocate a back-seat role to Europe in international politics. Europe is being publically downgraded. The new US administration is threatening the EU with severe tariffs, excluding its leaders from talks on ending the war in Ukraine, and menacingly advancing the idea of annexing Greenland, which is an autonomous territory of EU member state Denmark. Added to this is the issue of open interference in the election campaign by Musk and Vance. If Berlin and Brussels acquiesce without any resistance, they are effectively approving their own demotion in global politics by Washington. France’s President Emmanuel Macron is currently trying to look strong and present himself as the spearhead of EU resistance to US dominance.
Consequences open
At the end of January, Merz had a motion on inward migration passed in the Bundestag with the help of the AfD. This had never happened before and signifies the dismantling of the widely heralded cordon sanitaire against the far right.[6] The CDU leader has, on other hand, only recently declared several times that he would rule out a coalition with the AfD, something Trump’s team is trying to enable. He also announced in the conservative Wall Street Journal that, should he become chancellor, he would not put up with the Trump administration’s economic and political attacks. He would also respond to Musk’s interference in the German election campaign, which could, Merz said, be done “politically” or “legally”. Merz pointed out that although the EU runs a large trade surplus in goods with the United States, the US conversely generates a trade surplus in services with Europe. Potentially, Brussels could engage in the upcoming transatlantic economic war by attacking the US service sector. In particular, it would affect the major US tech companies, including Musk’s platform X.[7] When asked whether Berlin and Brussels could even target Tesla, Musk’s e-car company with is “gigafactory” at Grünheide near Berlin, Merz told the Wall Street Journal that he was, “deliberately leaving the consequences open for now.” He added that he would not make any decisions on a possible escalation of the transatlantic rivalry until after the German election.
Exemplary democratic procedure?
The Bundestag election was once again overshadowed by irregularities. The last election, on 26 September 2021, had already been problematic. In Berlin, voting had to be repeated in more than a fifth of the capital’s constituencies because the correct ballot papers and polling booths were missing. It was also found that ineligible voters, including minors, were able to cast a vote.[8] Prior to this year’s election, the German authorities were unable to send many citizens living abroad the voting documents needed to participate in time. Despite its self-proclaimed role as a model of fair democratic procedure, the Federal Republic – unlike other countries – does not consider it essential to enable voting at its diplomatic missions around the world. So, in many cases, the responsible authorities delayed sending out the voting documents, leaving roughly 213,000 Germans without a vote – the papers arriving either too late or not at all. The constitutional law expert Ulrich Battis was quoted as saying that “thousands, if not tens of thousands” were affected and that the poor preparation amounted to “a clear impairment of the high principle of the universality” of the electoral process.[9] This should be borne in mind the next time the German government lectures a foreign state about its real or alleged electoral irregularities.
[1] See also: An oligarch for the AfD, Ein Oligarch für die AfD (II) and Die transatlantische extreme Rechte (II).
[2] Conor Murray: Elon Musk Boosts Germany’s Far-Right AfD Party Again Ahead Of Sunday’s Election. forbes.com 22.02.2025.
[3] See also: Die transatlantische extreme Rechte (III).
[4] Michael Gold: JD Vance, at CPAC, Defends His Munich Speech and Trump’s Policy Barrage. nytimes.com 20.02.2025.
[5] Charles Homans, Emma Bubola, Michael Gold: Bannon Salute at Right-Wing Event Sparks Outcry, Even on French Right. nytimes.com 21.02.2025.
[6] See also: Far-right flying high.
[7] Bertrand Benoit: Musk Will Face Consequences for Meddling in German Politics, Warns Likely Leader. wsj.com 13.02.2025.
[8] Was die Neuwahl in Berlin bedeutet. zdf.de 10.02.2024.
[9] Bleiben viele Deutsche im Ausland diesmal außen vor? tagesschau.de 21.02.2025.
