High-risk security guarantees
The West’s ‘coalition of the willing’, including Germany, agrees ‘security guarantees’ for Ukraine, including troop deployments expressly against Russia’s will – risking yet more war.
PARIS/BERLIN/KIEV (own report) – A “coalition of the willing” consisting mainly of European states, including Germany, has agreed on “security guarantees” for Ukraine, including the non-covert deployment of NATO troops on Ukrainian territory. This was announced yesterday, Thursday, by French President Emmanuel Macron after a meeting in Paris with the participation of twenty-six countries. However, not all of them are keen to send troops. In mid-August, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was still giving the impression that he would commit Bundeswehr forces, but he has recently struck a more cautious note. Indeed, Wolfgang Ischinger, former head of the Munich Security Conference, has called the discussion about an official Western military presence in Ukraine an “unnecessary ghost debate”. It would only make sense if Russia agreed to the plan, Ischinger argued. And Moscow has confirmed that this is certainly not the case. Russia says it will continue the war if a negotiated solution cannot be reached. Pushing in the opposite direction, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte says the West shouldn’t care about “what Russia thinks about troops in Ukraine”. Yet NATO deliberately ignored Moscow’s red lines at the end of 2021 and the consequences are well known.
Deploying troops
Yesterday, Thursday, a “coalition of the willing” co-chaired by France and the United Kingdom agreed on “security guarantees” for Ukraine. This initiative was announced by French President Emmanuel Macron following a meeting of more than thirty countries in Paris. Most of the countries attending were European; the gathering also included Canada, Australia and Japan. Some heads of state and government, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, participated via video link. According to Macron, 26 of the countries present committed to participating in a “reassurance force” that would send troops to Ukraine the day after a ceasefire or otherwise to be “present on the ground, at sea or in the air”.[1] To this end, “a military plan” had been developed that was “robust” and intended to protect lines of defence, Macron continued. It is understood that troops from European NATO countries are to be stationed not on the line of contact but far behind it – taking up positions in Kiev, Odessa and elsewhere. US President Trump voiced, in a video conference, his willingness for the US to participate in the “security guarantees”, according to reports from Paris. The French president said that the details would be hammered out in the coming days.
Berlin remains ambivalent
Macron also announced that Germany, Italy and Poland wanted to contribute actively to the “security guarantees”, but admitted that all three had “their own modalities”. It was already clear in the run-up to the conference that Berlin, Rome and Warsaw were quite reluctant to send troops to Ukraine.[2] There had been rather contradictory signals from Berlin. In mid-August, Merz had stated that his government would soon find it necessary to examine whether “decisions requiring a mandate” from the Bundestag might have to be taken.[3] A few days ago, however, he struck a more cautious note, saying he had “considerable reservations” about sending the Bundeswehr into Ukraine. Nevertheless, according to a report in weekly Der Spiegel, the German government is ready to strengthen Ukraine’s air defences and beef up its military hardware by supplying cruise missiles. Berlin is also looking to supply Kiev with materiel for four mechanised infantry brigades – 480 vehicles per year – and to continue its training of Ukrainian forces.[4] Last but not least, there are plans for intensive cooperation between the German and Ukrainian arms industries. Rheinmetall and German drone start-ups are already working very closely with Ukraine (as german-foreign-policy.com reported [5]).
‘Absolutely unacceptable’
Immediately before the Paris meeting of the ‘coalition of the willing,’ Russia had reiterated its willingness in principle to negotiate a peaceful solution to the Ukraine conflict. However, the deployment of troops from NATO countries would be “absolutely unacceptable” to Moscow, confirmed Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry: “Russia has no intention of discussing foreign intervention in Ukraine, which would be fundamentally unacceptable and would undermine any form of security.” She said, “Security guarantees” that included such measures would guarantee only one thing – “a danger to the European continent”.[6] The background to Moscow’s position is its war aim of making Ukraine a neutral state. Russia wants to avoid a strategic threat from NATO. Neutrality would be incompatible with the stationing of NATO forces from Europe in Ukraine, in close proximity to Moscow. If a negotiated solution proves impossible, Russia will “solve its problems militarily,” announced President Vladimir Putin, pointing out that Russian forces are currently “on the offensive” across the board.[7] Ukraine is, by the same token, increasingly on the defensive militarily. Kiev recently allowed the recruitment of men over the age of sixty – a sign that confirms the glaring shortage of soldiers.[8]
‘A phantom debate’
Wolfgang Ischinger, formerly a high-ranking diplomat in the German Foreign Office and now President of the Board of Trustees of the Munich Security Conference, recently warned that Russia would not agree to the deployment of military units from NATO countries. It would therefore be unhelpful to commit prematurely to “security guarantees” involving such a deployment. Ischinger called the ideas for a post-ceasefire deployment of European troops in Ukraine an “unnecessary ghost debate”. Moscow would ultimately reject such a measure, he reasoned, and it would therefore only help to continue and widen the war.[9] It is unclear whether a major attack by Russian troops in Ukraine yesterday, Thursday, should be understood as a warning shot. Two employees of a Danish non-governmental organisation who were clearing mines in the Chernihiv Oblast were killed in the attack, while three others were injured. According to the authorities in Chernihiv, the strike was precisely targeted.[10] Western soldiers could face a similar threat if they were deployed to Ukraine without any agreement from Moscow.
‘Not for them to decide’?
Nevertheless, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said yesterday, Thursday, that there was no need to take account of Russia’s opposition to the deployment of troops from NATO countries in Ukraine. It was not up to Russia to “decide” whether Western countries sent military forces to Ukraine. Speaking at a conference in Prague, Rutte asked, “Why are we interested in what Russia thinks about troops in Ukraine?”, adding, “It's not their business to decide.”[11] The view that Western countries can implement their plans in and with Ukraine without having to take Russia’s interests or Moscow’s “red lines” into account is not new. This approach has led to devastating consequences in the past. As Rutte’s predecessor Jens Stoltenberg told members of the European Parliament in September 2023, in autumn 2021 Putin had made it clear to NATO, in writing, that Russia could not accept Ukraine’s accession to the military alliance. It was clearly a Russian precondition for its refraining from an invasion. Convinced that it was not Moscow’s place to extract concessions from NATO, Stoltenberg reported, “Of course we didn’t accept this.”[12] The consequences are well known.
More on this topic: Kein Waffenstillstand mit Russland and Negotiations in Istanbul.
[1] Vingt-six pays s’engagent à être présents “sur le sol, en mer ou dans les airs” pour garantir la sécurité de l’Ukraine, annonce Emmanuel Macron. lemonde.fr 04.09.2025.
[2] Emmanuel Macron : “Les Etats-Unis ont été très clairs sur leur volonté de faire partie des garanties de sécurité”. lemonde.fr 04.09.2025.
[3] Thomas Gutschker: Von der Leyen, Merz und die Bodentruppen. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 05.09.2025.
[4] Markus Becker, Matthias Gebauer, Paul-Anton Krüger: Berlin bietet der Ukraine Sicherheitsgarantien an. spiegel.de 04.09.2025.
[5] Ssee also: Rüstungsknotenpunkt Ukraine (II).
[6] Moscou rejette toute intervention étrangère en Ukraine. lemonde.fr 04.09.2025.
[7] La Russie atteindra ses objectifs “militairement” si les négociations échouent, dit Vladimir Poutine. lemonde.fr 04.09.2025.
[8] Richard Connor: Ukraine: Zelenskyy to allow over-60s enlist in military. dw.com 29.07.2025.
[9] Peter Carstens, Mona Jaeger: Nur mal rein hypothetisch. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 21.08.2025.
[10] Deux démineurs du Conseil danois pour les réfugiés tués par un bombardement russe près de Tchernihiv. lemonde.fr 04.09.2025.
[11] Il n’appartient pas à la Russie de “décider” s‘il doit y avoir des troupes étrangères en Ukraine en cas d’accord de paix, estime le chef de l’OTAN. lemonde.fr 04.09.2025.
[12] Opening remarks by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the joint meeting of the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET) and the Subcommittee on Security and Defence (SEDE) followed by an exchange of views with Members of the European Parliament. nato.int 07.09.2023.
