The ‘Europeanisation’ of Transnistria
The decision by Kiev to stop Russian gas supplies through Ukrainian pipelines has triggered a serious energy crisis in Moldova, forcing the seceded de facto republic of Transnistria into closer contact with the EU.
BERLIN/CHIȘINĂU (own report) - Germany and the EU can celebrate an initial victory in their tussle with Russia for influence over the de facto republic of Transnistria, which seceded from the Republic of Moldova in the early 1990s. The factor pushing Transnistria into the arms of Brussels is a desperate energy crisis affecting the region, triggered by the Ukrainian government’s decision to stop the flow of Russian gas westwards through Ukrainian pipelines. Kiev had honoured gas transit agreements until the end of 2024. Hungary, Slovakia and Moldova have been particularly dependent on cheap Russian gas for energy security and this is transited via Ukraine. Kiev also benefited from the arrangement, receiving some 800 million US dollars a year in transit fees. With Transnistria now extremely vulnerable, Germany and the EU under Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s leadership are able to strengthen ties with the de facto republic’s government in Tiraspol. The traditionally dominant Russian influence over the territory is receding due to the war in Ukraine, which has cut it off from Russia. As one Western expert recently argued, Transnistria’s “future lies in Europe”. From Berlin’s point of view, this would represent a success in its efforts to push back Moscow’s influence in south-eastern Europe.
Stopping gas transit
Last year, the Ukrainian government announced that it would finally turn off the taps and end the transit of Russian natural gas through Ukrainian territory. Last year, Kiev was still honouring contractually agreed gas supplies of around 15 billion cubic metre pumped westward from Russia via the Sudzha transit hub and Ukrainian pipelines. This was not done without payment, of course. The Ukrainian treasury collected around 800 million US dollars a year in transit fees, paid by Russian energy companies for the use of the pipelines. Seeking to weaken its adversary by preventing earnings from energy exports, Kiev announced that it would not extend the transit deal, which was concluded in 2019 and covered the period from 2020 to 2024.[1] In the EU, Slovakia and Hungary, whose governments are in favour of positive steps towards a negotiated solution to the Ukraine war, have been adversely affected by the cut-off. And it has been clear from the outset that the Republic of Moldova, located between Romania and Ukraine, would suffer most severely from an energy shortage following Kiev’s ban. Yet Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean responded to the impending crisis in September last year by announcing to his population that gas and electricity prices would not rise.[2] Observers agreed that this was wishful thinking. Things turned out very differently.
Energy crisis
Russian natural gas is, just as Ukraine warned, no longer flowing into the Republic of Moldova. Ukrainian pipelines were cut off on 1 January 2025. With the end of Russian gas transit, the Cuciurgan power plant, which is located in Transnistria, had to cease operations. Until the end of last year, Cuciurgan was not only supplying electricity for Transnistria itself but also meeting around 70 per cent of the electricity needs of the territory run by the Moldovan government in Chișinău, the Moldovan capital.[3] In the de facto republic of Transnistria, the blocking of Russian gas supplies in January led to an unprecedented energy crisis. Factories were shut down, while regular power outages have beleaguered the entire population. Moldova itself has faced huge electricity price hikes, skyrocketing by up to 75 per cent. Heating costs rose by 40 per cent within the first two days of the energy crisis, making a mockery of Prime Minister Recean’s declarations to the contrary.[4] The mayor of the northern Moldovan city of Bălți, Alexandr Petkov from the left-wing Partidul Nostru (Our Party), called on the government in Chișinău to pay compensation to the citizens suffering from what he called the government’s incompetent energy policy, referring to Recean’s failure to find a solution.[5]
Interim solution
The European Commission has now stepped into the breach and provided EU development aid. It is supplying Transnistria with gas free of charge until 10 February, a move that also enables Cuciurgan power plant to resume electricity supplies into Moldova proper.[6] Transnistria’s head of government, Vadim Krasnoselski, has personally thanked European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (CDU) for EU support.[7] In addition, the Ukrainian government has offered to supply coal to both the Republic of Moldova and Transnistria.[8] It is not yet known whether the governments in Chișinău and Tiraspol will take up the Ukrainian offer.
‘Future in Europe’
With direct contacts between the de facto government in Tiraspol and the European Commission, the process of bringing Transnistria into the EU’s orbit is moving ahead. An author from the Green party-affiliated Heinrich Böll Foundation had already called for such a “Europeanisation” scenario back in 2010.[9] In December 2015, Transnistrian officials themselves announced that their de facto republic would join the so-called Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) established between the Republic of Moldova and the EU. That step has been taken. EU officials were sent to the territory to oversee the introduction of a sales tax. The government in Tiraspol had abolished VAT a decade and a half earlier on the grounds that it would only worsen poverty in the population.[10] In 2017, six months after taking office, Transnistrian President Krasnoselski travelled to the EU for the first official visit. The Transnistrian presidential office has been publishing its press releases in English since 2019.[11] Transnistria’s “future lies in Europe”, wrote British Transnistria expert Thomas de Waal recently. Many Transnistrians already have EU citizenship as a result of lax passport issuing practices by EU member Romania.[12]
Neutral in the Ukraine war
The background to current efforts to push for “Europeanisation” of Transnistria is the war in Ukraine. The Transnistrian government remains neutral in this war and has neither alienated the Ukrainian government nor allowed the Russian army to use Transnistrian territory for military operations.[13] The de facto government in Tiraspol even initially distanced itself from its Russian ally through diplomatic manoeuvres.[14] A few months after the start of the Ukraine war, the German ambassador to the Republic of Moldova, Margret Uebber, visited Transnistria and met the foreign minister and the president for official talks.[15] The “Europeanisation” of Transnistria, long hoped for in Berlin, is now taking shape.
[1] Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti: Moldova is the real loser from the end of Russian gas transit through Ukraine. atlanticcouncil.org 10.01.2025.
[2] Речан: Молдаване в этом сезоне не будут платить более высокие тарифы на свет и газ. point.md 11.09.2024.
[3] Thomas de Waal: Moldova’s Gas Crisis Is Europe’s Headache. carnegieendowment.org 16.01.2025.
[4] Николай Пахольницкий: Веерные отключения в Приднестровье и взлет тарифов на Правом берегу. Главное об энергокризисе в Молдове на 3 января. newsmaker.md 03.01.2025.
[5] Primarul municipiului Bălți a cerut guvernului compensarea prejudiciilor aduse orașului din cauza politicii incompetente în domeniul energetic. noi.md 04.01.2025.
[6] Thomas de Waal: Moldova’s Gas Crisis Is Europe’s Headache. carnegieendowment.org 16.01.2025.
[7] Amăgit de Putin, separatistul Krasnoselski mulțumește Uniunii Europene pentru că a scos Transnistria din beznă. Cetățenii din stânga Nistrului au ieșit în stradă să sărbătorească. ziarulnational.md 01.02.2025.
[8] Gavin Blackburn: Kyiv says it can supply Moldova with coal as gas transit agreement with Russia ends. euronews.com 26.01.2025.
[9] See: Ein Testlauf für Eurasien.
[10] See: Die Schwarzmeermacht EU.
[11] David X. Noack: Transnistria’s Diplomacy During the First 15 Months of the Russian War. defactostates.ut.ee 20.07.2023.
[12] Thomas de Waal: Moldova’s Gas Crisis Is Europe’s Headache. carnegieendowment.org 16.01.2025.
[13], [14] David X. Noack: Transnistria’s Diplomacy During the First 15 Months of the Russian War. defactostates.ut.ee 20.07.2023.
[15] Vitaly Ignatiev Meets with Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Germany. mid.gospmr.org 15.12.2022. Vadim Krasnoselsky Received the German Ambassador. mid.gospmr.org 14.12.2022.
