On Europe’s shoulders

‘High-intensity fighting’

Russia’s armed forces are currently continuing their offensive in Ukraine at a rapid pace. From September to November of this year alone, they managed to conquer territory far in excess of 1,500 square kilometres, as reported last week. A further 500 to 750 square kilometres could well be added by the end of the year.[1] Russian troops have not advanced at such a speed since the very first phase of the war, in late February 2022. A huge problem for the Ukrainian armed forces is, admits their commander-in-chief Olexander Syrskyi, Russia’s clear numerical superiority. “The intensity of the fighting is very high,” confirmed Syrskyi in an interview with the French daily Le Monde on Tuesday, “The situation is very tense along the entire 1,130 kilometres of the front line.”[2] He adds that, “The most difficult situation” is now at Kurakhove and Pokrovsk.[3] If Pokrovsk, a logistics hub of great importance for the Ukrainian defence, were to fall it would represent a major defeat for Kiev. Russia is on the verge of a breakthrough in that area.

More and more deserters

Moreover, the Ukrainian armed forces are not only continuing to suffer high losses through death or injury but also increasingly through desertion. Since the beginning of the war, the Ukrainian authorities have instigated proceedings against more than 100,000 people for desertion. But the actual number of deserters is thought to be significantly higher, with some experts speaking of some 200,000 or more.[4] At the beginning of the week it was reported that, of the approximately 2,000 soldiers in the 155th Mechanised Brigade, almost one thousand had deserted shortly before their planned entry into the war.[5] The 155th, which was only formed last summer and initially underwent extensive training in France from August to November, was well equipped by Paris with a large number of armoured vehicles and eighteen Caesar howitzers. Since the United States and NATO have been pushing for the recruitment age to be lowered from 25 to 18, more and more young men are reportedly deciding to go abroad to train or study. Ukrainian MP Olexandra Ustinova has warned that the measure will be met with determined resistance in the population: “If we want to lose our future generation, yes, this is the right step.”[6]

Along the demarcation line

Meanwhile, the debate about a possible end to the fighting continues in light of US President-elect Donald Trump’s statements that he intends to stop the war. What is so far known is that, on 7 December, Trump discussed the outlines of a future approach with Macron and Zelensky during Trump’s visit to Paris at the ceremony to reopen Notre Dame Cathedral.[7] The countries of Europe should, in the new scenario, take on the main burden of supporting Ukraine. And once a ceasefire has been agreed, Europe is to provide troops to oversee activities in an otherwise demilitarised zone along the demarcation line between the warring parties. France had already put out the feelers in this direction in November in consultation with the UK. Paris hopes to coordinate such moves with Poland and the Baltic and Nordic states. Macron and Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk discussed the plans on 12 December.[8] Macron’s idea is to station a force of around 40,000 soldiers along the demarcation line.[9] While German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was not directly involved in any of the talks, his advisor Jens Plötner did meet with Trump’s designated National Security Advisor Mike Waltz in Washington on 12 December on Berlin’s own initiative to discuss the next steps in the Ukraine war.[10]

Against the will of the majority

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock recently held out the prospect of German participation in a multinational force to monitor compliance with the ceasefire on the Russian-Ukrainian demarcation line.[11] This is still being discussed. Hawkish CDU foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter has recently spoken out in favour of deploying German troops [12] despite the fact that such a move would be against the will of a clear majority of the German population. A recent survey shows that only 32 per cent are in favour of deploying the Bundeswehr to oversee a ceasefire in Ukraine, whereas 55 per cent explicitly reject the idea.[13] Attitudes on this question correlate with party preference, but there is no enthusiasm across the political spectrum. Not only are voters of the Left Party (67 per cent), the BSW (76 per cent) and the AfD (77 per cent) overwhelmingly against deployment, but even most CDU/CSU voters (53 per cent) reject such plans. As for SPD voters, 44 per cent are against and 40 per cent are in favour of Bundeswehr deployment. Among FDP voters, 46 per cent are in favour while 42 per cent are against. Only the Greens, with a 56 per cent pro-interventionist majority, have an absolute majority in favour of deploying the Bundeswehr in Ukraine.

Talks in Brussels

Ukrainian President Zelensky travelled to Brussels yesterday, Wednesday, to press ahead with plans for a stronger shift in Ukraine support to the European states, and to discuss the already mentioned option of stationing a European force of around 40,000 soldiers along the Russian-Ukrainian demarcation line. Zelensky met with his French counterpart Macron and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, among others.[14] In an interview yesterday, Zelensky also openly admitted that Ukraine does not have sufficient military strength to recapture its lost territories.[15]

NATO’s Ukraine Command

Indeed, a first step to shift Ukraine support more strongly onto European shoulders has already been taken with the announcement on Tuesday that coordination of military aid for the Ukrainian armed forces has been transferred from the United States to NATO, which means in part to its European members. It is to this end that the Western military alliance has put into operation a new command centre called NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU). The centre is located at the Clay Barracks in Wiesbaden. Since this is in fact the location of the headquarters of the US Army Europe and Africa (USAREUR-AF), the choice indicates that the Americans will remain closely in touch with any support measures for Kiev.[16] However, the new framework does offer greater scope for initiative by – and greater obligations on – the European NATO member states, including Germany in particular.

[1] Constant Méheut: Russian Troops Advance to Within 3 Miles of Key Ukrainian Transit Hub. nytimes.com 12.12.2024.s

[2] Rémy Ourdan: Le commandant en chef de l’armée ukrainienne, le general Oleksandr Syrsky, dresse le bilan d’une année de ‘combats intenses’. lemonde.fr 17.12.2024.

[3] Ukraine says Russia used North Korea troops for ‘intensive offensive’ in Kursk region. france24.com 17.12.2024.

[4] Samya Kullab, Volodymyr Yurchuk: Desertion threatens to starve Ukraine’s forces at a crucial time in its war with Russia. apnews.com 29.11.2024.

[5] Marc Bennetts: Teenagers plan to flee as Kyiv faces pressure to call up the young. thetimes.com 05.12.2024.

[6] Stefan Korshak: High-Profile French-Trained Ukrainian Brigade Loses Commander Days Before Going to Combat Line. kyivpost.com 16.12.2024.

[7] Laurence Norman, Jane Lytvynenko, Stacy Meichtry: Trump to Europe: Overseeing a Ukraine Cease-Fire Would Be Your Job. wsj.com 13.12.2024.

[8] Stefan Locke, Michaela Wiegel, Matthias Wyssuwa: Nichts über uns hinweg. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 13.12.2024.