Upheavals in Syria (III)

Dramatic loss of influence

A fierce struggle between external powers for control of Syria after the fall of Bashar al Assad has already begun. As things stand, the outlook for two states that were major Assad supporters, Russia and Iran, does not look good. The fact that the Iranian embassy in Damascus was attacked, looted and vandalised after Assad’s escape flight from the city epitomises Iran’s sudden loss of influence. There are reports that Tehran is now endeavouring to open up new channels of communication in the Syrian capital in order to secure at least some remnants of influence with the new rulers.[1] The prospects for success appear very uncertain. Russia, for its part, is threatened with the loss of two military bases in Syria – the Hmeimim airbase near Latakia, which it has been using since 2015, and, more importantly, the Tartus naval base, which was established by the Soviet Union back in 1971. It is of key importance to Moscow for its capacity to project power in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East. Russian movements in Tartus are being closely monitored in the West. There were reports on Wednesday that all Russian warships had now left the naval base and were cruising in the Mediterranean.[2] What this means exactly remains unclear.

The ‘Turkification’ of northern Syria

Several states have occupied parts of Syrian territory. They are holding on to them and, in some cases, even seeking to expand the areas under their control. This applies first and foremost to Turkey. Ankara has launched several waves of attack since 2016, conquering parts of northern Syria and consolidating its hold. It is no secret that the occupied areas have, for years, been connected to Turkish infrastructure and Turkish administration. Experts have been talking about a deliberate “Turkification” of the region in 2019.[3] The Syrian National Army (SNA), a coalition of armed groups aligned to and dependent on Turkey, is currently pushing to conquer further parts of northern Syria and drive out the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which are led by Kurdish forces. The SNA is made up of numerous individual militias, some of whom are accused of serious crimes, especially against Kurds.[4] In recent days, the SNA has succeeded in capturing the towns of Tall Rifaat north of Aleppo and Manbij west of the Euphrates.[5] It is currently targeting Kobane, a city east of the Euphrates, which gained international fame when the Kurdish forces successfully defended it against IS.[6] Ankara has been providing the SNA with air support from Turkish fighter jets and drones.

Bombardments without end

Parts of Syria are also occupied by the United States and by Israel. The US has stationed around 900 soldiers at a base in the north-east of the country. It has used the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to deny the Syrian government access to the oil fields that are located there and exploited by the Americans. This forced Damascus to purchase oil from Iran, resulting in enormous economic damage to the country. In recent days, US forces have carried out numerous airstrikes on Syrian targets. On Tuesday it reportedly hit 75 targets, allegedly IS positions.[7] Israel, for its part, has occupied the Golan Heights since 1967. It annexed this part of Syria in 1981 in violation of international law. The United States is the only country to recognise the annexation – a diplomatic move by President Donald Trump on 25 March 2019. IDF forces have now advanced even further into Syrian territory and are now said to be in Qatana, a town just twenty kilometres southwest of Damascus.[8] Israel began airstrikes on targets across Syria – reportedly one to two dozen per day – in advance of the HTS offensive. Since the overthrow of the regime in Damascus these strikes have become massive. Israel had carried out 480 attacks by Tuesday alone, according to its own statements, destroying large parts of the military infrastructure, intelligence buildings and all kinds of other facilities. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared, “We are changing the face of the Middle East.”[9]

‘Group of Friends of Syria’

While Turkey, the United States and Israel are illegally occupying Syrian territory and bombing Syrian targets on an enormous scale without any basis in international law, international efforts are in full swing to pull the jihadists of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), now apparently the strongest force in Syria, firmly into the Western camp.[10] Germany also wants to be a significant player in this endeavour. By Tuesday evening, Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz was already declaring that Germany was ready to “work together with the new rulers” in Syria.[11] On Wednesday, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced an eight-point plan intended to set out the framework for the future development of Syria. Calling for “a peaceful and orderly transfer of power ... to a civilian government with broad legitimacy”, the plan foresees, among other things, the integration of the militias into “a national army” along with “free and democratic elections”.[12] A “new group of friends of Syria” should be established, which would be made up of “Western donor countries” alongside neighbouring states and other Arab countries. Germany’s “pragmatic approach” is to cooperate with the jihadist HTS since it is “de facto the new strong power in Syria”.

Give HTS a chance?

Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, who visited the German troops stationed in Jordan (Al Azraq) and Iraq (Baghdad, Erbil) over the past two days, expressed a similar view. When asked about Germany’s stance towards HTS, Pistorius said, “We must give them a chance to do what is now important and, at the same time, stand ready with other European partners to make our contributions.”[13] He has reasserted, “We as Europeans, as Germany must now see our responsibility to contribute to the stabilisation of the region.”[14] To this end, Pistorius wants to consolidate and possibly expand the German military presence in Syria’s neighbours Jordan and Iraq. With regard to the presence of foreign troops in Iraq, Washington and Baghdad agreed at the end of September to end the multinational Operation Inherent Resolve (an “anti-IS mission”) and replace it with bilateral agreements on military cooperation.[15] Pistorius is now considering this option for Germany. With regard to the airbase near Al Azraq, there is already talk of making the stationing of German military aircraft at the base a long-term arrangement.[16] Indeed, Al Azraq is also considered a potential hub for operations into the African continent and has already been used for an evacuation mission in Sudan.

More on this topic: Upheavals in Syria (I) and Upheavals in Syria (II).

[1] Iran says it is in direct contact with groups in Syria’s new leadership. timesofisrael.com 09.12.2024.

[2] Christiaan Triebert, Riley Mellen: Russian Military and Commercial Activity Halted at Key Syrian Port. nytimes.com 11.12.2024.

[3] See also: Erdoğan in Berlin and Die Invasionsmacht als Partner.

[4] Rayhan Uddin: The Syrian National Army: Rebels, thugs or Turkish proxies? middleeasteye.net 07.12.2024.

[5] Ghazal Golshiri, Marie Jégo: En Syrie, la Turquie veut étendre la zone tampon en repoussant les forces kurdes. lemonde.fr 11.12.2024.

[6] See also: Das Spiel mit dem Terror.

[7] U.S. airstrikes in Syria meant to prevent Islamic State from taking power in leadership void. pbs.org 10.12.2024.

[8] Israel establishes ‘sterile defence zone’ inside Syrian territory as it continues air strikes. middleeasteye.net 10.12.2024.

[9] Mick Krever: Israel strikes Syria 480 times and seizes territory as Netanyahu pledges to change face of the Middle East. edition.cnn.com 11.12.2024.

[10] See also: Upheavals in Syria (II).

[11] Bundeskanzler Scholz telefoniert mit dem französischen Staatspräsidenten Macron. bundesregierung.de 09.12.2024.

[12] Severin Weiland: So will Baerbock den Friedensprozess in Syrien begleiten. spiegel.de 12.12.2024.

[13] “Wir müssen mehr machen”. tagesschau.de 11.12.2024.

[14] Ines Trams: Pistorius wirbt für mehr Einsatz Deutschlands. zdf.de 12.12.2024.

[15] Frank Specht: Pistorius verspricht Hilfe zur Stabilisierung im Nahen Osten. handelsblatt.com 12.12.2024.

[16] Joint Statement Announcing the Timeline for the End of the Military Mission of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in Iraq. state.gov 27.09.2024.