Against Refugees, Against Russia
Berlin seeks to gain influence in Chad, which has long been exclusively dominated by Paris, with the objective of stopping the flow of refugees and rolling back Russian influence which is increasing in a growing number of countries of the Sahel.
N’DJAMENA/BERLIN (own report) – Preventive refugee defense and the West’s major power struggle against Russia is inducing the German government to make new efforts to gain influence in Chad. Germany’s Development Minister Svenja Schulze left last Monday for that African country, harboring around 1.2 million refugees – mainly from Sudan. To prevent them from continuing their journey toward Europe, Schulze seeks to provide them with opportunities “for establishing a new livelihood” in Chad. “Chad did not build fences, but showed solidarity with the refugees,” praised the minister. Chad is one of the poorest countries in the world, and its east, where most of the refugees are located, is one of its poorest regions. Berlin is also seeking to gain influence in that country, because the government in N’Djamena – like a large number of other Sahel governments – is beginning to cooperate more closely with Russia. France, the traditionally dominant former colonial power in Chad, is now also facing growing pressure. Germany offers itself as an alternative cooperation partner for N’Djamena – like Hungary, which is expanding its development activities and seeking to send military to that country.
Refugees in Chad
On the one hand, the German government wants to grant Chad a certain amount of attention and development aid because a growing number of refugees are arriving in that country – particularly, but not only, from neighboring Sudan to the east. Estimates currently stand at around 1.2 million refugees, with new Sudanese refugees continuing to cross the country’s eastern border daily. That region is considered one of the poorest in Chad, which, for its part, is one of the poorest nations in the world. According to the CDU-affiliated Konrad Adenauer Foundation, the United Nations has “launched one of the world’s largest aid operations and set up several refugee camps” in the border region with Sudan.[1] They are also attempting to deliver food from there into Sudan, where the war between the official armed forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia has been raging unabated since April 2023, claiming countless civilian lives. The refugees were initially welcomed in Eastern Chad, in spite of the region’s extreme poverty. Because Chadian farmers are now lacking the needed agricultural space and the skyrocketing prices of the scarce food, tensions are beginning to rise.
“No Fences, but Solidarity”
The steadily growing number of refugees and the additional burden of recent months of severe flooding affecting one-tenth of Chad’s population of nearly 20 million people, has given rise in Germany and the EU to the assumption that a growing number of refugees could soon begin to head toward Europe. Germany’s Development Minister Swenja Schulze left for Chad on Monday, to also visit projects that, according to her ministry, indicate “ways … to integrate the refugees” and “for peaceful coexistence between the locals and the newcomers.”[2] “Chad has not built fences, but shows solidarity with the refugees,” Schulze declared, implicitly hinting that the prosperous EU is doing exactly the opposite. Germany will “reinforce support for Chad in its efforts to provide new livelihoods for refugees” so that “the people … can build a new existence for themselves” and “remain” in the country, Schulze continues.[3] In relationship to the size of the country’s population, Chad’s 1.2 million refugees would represent around 5 million refugees in prosperous Germany. The 3.5 million refugees currently in Germany has prompted Berlin to launch a deportation offensive.[4]
New Alternatives
The Chadian government’s new orientation is the second reason motivating the German government to increase activities in Chad. Traditionally, France was Chad’s closest ally, with about 1,000 soldiers still stationed in the country. In exchange for reliable loyalty, three decades of the repressive reign of President Idriss Déby (1991 – 2021) were guaranteed. However, cracks began to surface during the presidency of his son and successor, Mahamat Déby. These were caused by Déby Jr’s waning confidence in French security, but also because non-western countries were increasingly playing a role and offering their services in the Sahel region. For example, Russian mercenaries and military personnel are supporting governments in the neighboring Central African Republic to the south, in Niger, at its western border and in the countries of Mali and Burkina Faso, still further to the west.[5] In eastern neighboring Sudan, it is widely believed that the RSF militia is being supported by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The Emirates and Russia both have considerable influence in Libya, at Chad’s northern border. Other emerging powers, such as Turkey are also involved.
Maison Russe in N’Djamena
This year, the Chadian government has begun to open up to cooperation with Russia. Already in January, President Mahamat Déby traveled to Moscow for talks.[6] In June Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov visited Chad’s capital N’Djamena for a continuation of the talks. In September, a “Maison Russe” (“Russian House”), a Russian cultural center was opened in N’Djamena. Further developments appear uncertain. Paris is doing everything it can to prevent Chad from expelling France’s military from the country, as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger had done earlier. The United States is also trying to secure the presence of its small unit of special forces in N’Djamena.[7] However, it remains unclear if they can succeed. Particularly among young Chadians, France and the other Western powers are hated, while Russia – as an alternative to the neocolonial West – is gaining in popularity. Furthermore, Chad’s government is financially supported by the United Arab Emirates, in exchange for authorization to use the eastern Chadian Amdjarass airbase by the Emirates to supply the Sudanese RSF militia with weapons and munition. In the meantime, there are even talks on supplying Chad’s armed forces with Emirati drones.[8]
Hungary in the Sahel
While France and the USA are seeking to shore up their current influence, Hungary is developing new activities in Chad. Already in November 2023, the Hungarian parliament approved in principle the deployment of up to 200 soldiers to that African country. Since then, Budapest and N’Djamena have been expanding their relations. Hungary has launched a series of development projects in Chad, to enhance, for example, the water supply. It also plans to annually award scholarships to 25 young Chadians to study at Hungarian universities. In September, President Mahamat Déby paid an official visit to Budapest. It was the highly symbolic first trip to Europe, after the Chadian presidential elections in May 2024.[9] Hungary’s President Viktor Orbán explained his country’s unusual activities in Chad with the intention of relocating the defense against refugees to within the Sahel. However, Orbán’s willingness, in principle, to continue cooperation with Russia has unleashed unease in Paris, Berlin and other Western capitals, also regarding Hungary’s presence in Chad. France has achieved that the Hungarian soldiers will be stationed close to the French military base in N’Djamena permitting easy monitoring.[10]
The Third Objective
This explains what is behind Development Minister Schulze’s visit to Chad for talks that last until Thursday. Berlin is counting also on being able to publicly make a clear demarcation between itself and France, the hated former colonial power, and thereby be able to win influence. The reinforcement of German positions in Africa is – in addition to the struggle against refugees and Russia – the third objective.
[1] Ulf Laessing: Sudan-Krise trifft Sahelland Tschad. kas.de 12.11.2024.
[2], [3] Entwicklungsministerin Schulze besucht Tschad, das den vielen Flüchtlingen aus Sudan große Solidarität entgegenbringt. bmz.de.
[4] Flüchtlingszahl in Deutschland steigt auf 3,5 Millionen. tagesschau.de 20.09.2024.
[5] See In Westafrika gegen Russland, In Westafrika gegen Russland (II) and Im Sahel gegen Russland.
[6] See Die deutsche Cold Base in Niger.
[7] Paul Melly: Comment le Tchad exploite la rivalité russo-occidentale à son avantage. bbc.com 07.10.2024.
[8] Ulf Laessing: Sudan-Krise trifft Sahelland Tschad. kas.de 12.11.2024.
[9], [10] Carol Valade: Au Tchad, la Hongrie déploie son aide, avant ses soldats. lemonde.fr 18.10.2024.
