Zelensky’s ‘victory plan’
President Zelensky visits Germany and pushes for further funding commitments for his plan to achieve ‘victory for Ukraine’. Yet as Kiev comes closer to defeat than ever before, a renewed mass exodus is looming.
BERLIN/KIEV (own report) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrives in Germany today, Friday, for talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The Ukrainian leader claims to have drawn up a plan for a ‘victory for Ukraine’ over Russia. Zelensky has sharply criticised Berlin’s announcement that it will not be providing any further billions in funding beyond the pledges already made to his country. He is likely to urge Scholz to step back from the decision. He also plans to lobby US President Joe Biden for new funds soon. Zelensky is now advancing the idea of a plan for Ukrainian victory. Developments on the ground, however, do not look good for Kiev. The Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region is failing, and the Russian capture of Pokrovsk appears imminent. The city is a logistical hub. Its loss would bring the Ukrainian armed forces much closer to defeat. At the same time, Russia is destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, so the country may be facing another mass exodus. This would deprive the economy of urgently needed workers but also cause growing discontent in EU countries as the war has negative impacts on their populations. Moscow is again saying it is willing to negotiate.
Campaigning for more weapons
The visit to Germany by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was announced at short notice for today, Friday. The trip is part of Kiev’s PR offensive to boost support for more and more deadly weapons. Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umjerov had already met with his German counterpart Boris Pistorius in Berlin on Thursday, having previously held talks on future arms deliveries in Washington. Zelensky is scheduled to take part in a meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (UDCG) at the US Ramstein Air Force Base in the state of Rheinland-Palatinate, and then hold private negotiations with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Frankfurt am Main.[1] The focus will presumably be on the German government’s announcement that it cannot afford to provide any additional funds to Kiev over and above those already pledged.[2] Zelensky announced in advance that he will soon be presenting US President Joe Biden with a plan to secure a ‘victory for Ukraine’ over Russia, for which Washington would, of course, have to provide the necessary funds.[3] A meeting on the fringes of the UN General Assembly is conceivable, since Biden is expected to speak there on 24 September and Zelensky on 25 September.
Before the defeat
In reality, Ukraine is further than ever from the ‘victory’ that Zelensky declares possible. The offensive by the Ukrainian armed forces in the Russian region of Kursk has long since stalled. The aim of forcing a redeployment of Russian troops away from the fighting in eastern Ukraine and thus weakening their onslaught in the Donetsk region has failed. Moscow has ordered units from other parts of the country to defend Kursk, while the Russian troops in Donetsk are continuing to advance on Pokrovsk. The city is considered an important logistical hub for supplying the Ukrainian forces in the east of the country.[4] According to military experts, the capture of the entire Donetsk region is slowly coming within the reach of Russian forces. At the same time, Russian missiles are continuing to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. As the British think-tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) already noted back in June, the targetting shows “impressive accuracy”.[5] RUSI also pointed out in June that, with so many people in Ukraine facing the prospect of only four hours of electricity a day in winter, these attacks would drive even more Ukrainian civilians to flee, primarily to Western Europe.
A new refugee movement
This is likely to lead to new difficulties for Ukraine and its Western supporters on several levels. For one thing, the prospect of “another large refugee movement” caused considerable concern at a meeting of EU foreign ministers last week.[6] There is already a growing resentment among the societies of European countries about Ukrainian refugees. Earlier this year, some German politicians began calling for the cancellation of the full social security benefits being given to Ukrainians who had fled the war.[7] Similar demands have, for some time, been voiced in Ireland.[8] In Poland, surveys show that 95 per cent of residents believe that support for Ukrainian refugees should be reduced, while only 17 per cent – compared to 37 per cent a year earlier – are in favour of the long-term settlement of Ukrainians in Poland. 61 per cent say they are clearly in favour of refugees returning to their country of origin immediately after war has ended.[9] In the Netherlands, the proportion of people who, in principle, oppose the policy of accepting Ukrainian refugees rose from just 11 per cent in February 2022 to 23 per cent in February 2024.[10]
Consequences for generations
If popular discontent continues to swell in the EU, including in Germany, further serious problems will soon be looming, especially for Ukraine itself. There is already a shortage of labour because countless men have been conscripted into the armed forces and well over a million women, most of them well-educated, have fled to the EU. Although there has been some success in getting women to fill posts previously taken by men, the number of women available is reportedly far from sufficient.[11] Should a large number of Ukrainian civilians flee to the west in the coming autumn or winter due to the inadequate energy and water supplies, the labour shortage would become even more accute. An demographers are already predicting a desolate situation for the period after the end of the war. After all, the birth rate has plummeted due to the war and high, ever-growing numbers of young men are dying at the front. So it is completely unclear how Ukrainian society, which has already lost ten million people through fighting, flight and loss of territory, will find a path to adequate development. Experts warn of “consequences for generations”[12]
Willingness to negotiate?
Zelenskyi, despite the prospect of new military and social disasters for Ukraine, rejects negotiations on an end to the war and favours a ‘victory’ over Russia that is hard to envisage. Meanwhile Russia's President, Vladimir Putin, once again declared his readiness for such negotiations yesterday, Thursday. Speaking on the fringes of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Putin said talks could begin at any time. The basis could be the provisional agreement that both sides reached in Istanbul at the end of March 2022 before Kiev rejected it - not least due to Western pressure.[13] The Russian president named China, Brazil and India as possible mediators.[14] The now resigned Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba had visited the People's Republic only recently, in July, for talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. [15] Last Tuesday, China called for support for a peace plan that Bejing had previously developed together with Brazil. The appeal for constructive diplomacy followed a meeting with representatives from Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia, which had a strong focus on ending the war in Ukraine.[16] Only in the West has support for a ceasefire still failed to materialise – a stance that is shared not least by Germany.
[1] Ukrainischer Präsident will mehr Waffen: Scholz und Selenskyj treffen sich offenbar am Freitag in Frankfurt. tagesspiegel.de 05.09.2024.
[2] See also: Kursk and the consequences.
[3] Selenskyj will Russland zum Frieden zwingen. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 28.09.2024.
[4] Sébastian Seibt: Why Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has failed to distract Russia from Donbas push. france24.com 04.09.2024.
[5] Sam Cranny-Evans: Bracing for the Hardest Winter: Protecting Ukraine’s Energy Infrastructure. rusi.org 24.06.2024.
[6] Thomas Gutschker: Ukrainischer Optimismus trifft auf europäische Skepsis. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 30.08.2024.
[7] „Unmut in der Bevölkerung“: Union will Bürgergeld für Ukraine-Flüchtlinge streichen. focus.de 18.04.2024.
[8] Ireland mulling cuts in support for asylum seekers, Ukrainian refugees. reuters.com 13.05.2024.
[9] Martin Fornusek: Polish attitudes towards Ukrainian refugees deteriorating, survey shows. kyivindependent.com 19.06.2024.
[10] Solidarity with Ukraine: more urgent than ever. dorcas.org 23.02.2024.
[11] Constant Méheut: War Is Draining Ukraine’s Male-Dominated Work Force. Enter the Women. nytimes.com 20.08.2024.
[12] Massimo Diana: Amid Russian aggression, Ukraine is also facing a demographic crisis. aljazeera.com 11.07.2024. See also „Europa ist im Krieg”.
[13] China, India and Brazil could mediate Russia-Ukraine talks, Russia’s Putin says. reuters.com 05.09.2024. See also Kein Wille zum Waffenstillstand.
[14] Zoya Sheftalovich: Putin says China, Brazil or India could act as intermediaries in Ukraine peace talks. politico.eu 05.09.2024.
[15] See also Diplomatie statt Waffen.
[16] Huizhong Wu: China calls for more support for its Ukraine peace plan created with Brazil. apnews.com 27.08.2024.
