The tussle over Bosnia and Herzegovina

Controversial from the outset

Christian Schmidt, formerly Germany’s Parliamentary State Secretary at the Ministry of Defence and subsequently the Minister for Agriculture, was a highly controversial appointment from the outset when he assumed the post of High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina on 1 August 2021. This was partly because he appeared to be too close to Croatian nationalists. In this multi-ethnic country this did little to enhance his standing among either Bosnian Muslims or Bosnian Serbs. Also, it was a break with tradition when he was appointed without Russia’s consent. Previously, it had been customary to ensure that the UN Security Council backed the High Representative so that the role would be conferred international legitimacy. However, against the background of escalating tensions between the West and Russia at the time, Western governments preferred to push through their candidate against Moscow’s wishes, rather than engaging in a search for a joint representative. So this became another factor behind the objections to Schmidt among the Bosnian Serbs and their Republika Srpska, which has been comparatively close to Russia.

The ‘Bonn Powers’

Barely in office, Schmidt proceeded to implement unpopular measures. He was able to make heavy use of what are known as the ‘Bonn Powers’ that flow from the far-reaching authority that had been conferred on the High Representative at an international conference in Bonn in December 1997. Designed to keep the various ethic leaders in check, these powers have enabled him to issue decrees at his own discretion and dismiss individuals from their posts if, in his view, this serves to uphold the 1995 Dayton Agreement. The country of Bosnia and Herzegovina is still based on this arrangement today. It meant, for instance, that Schmidt could issue a decree to impose electoral reform that unilaterally favoured the Croatian nationalist party HDZ. Schmidt announced the measure on 2 October 2022, the day on which elections were being held in Bosnia and Herzegovina. His intervention occurred just under an hour after the polling stations closed, which meant the election outcome was calculated according to criteria that differed quite significantly from those on which voters had thought they were basing their votes (as reported by german-foreign-policy.com [1]).

Schmidt vs Dodik

Schmidt entered into in open confrontation with the Republika Srpska and its president, Milorad Dodik. In office from 2010 to 2018 and again from 2022 to 2025, Dodik has close relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. His policies have been geared towards greater autonomy for the Serbian part of the country, possibly even aiming at complete separation from Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Dayton settlement. One issue, among others, that has sparked conflict is that three of the nine judges on the overall country’s Constitutional Court are appointed by the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg. Dodik opposed this foreign control and called for the Constitutional Court to be run exclusively by judges from the Bosnia-Herzegovina federation and the Republika Srpska.[2] The dispute, which primarily centred on animosity between Dodik and Schmidt, escalated sharply and culminated in Schmidt’s attempt to have Dodik arrested. This move was prevented by Republika Srpska’s armed gendarmes under threat of force. The conflict was not resolved until autumn 2025 – on the initiative of the Trump administration.

Trump clique’s business interests

The Trump administration’s interest in the fractious Bosnia and Herzegovina region is clearly motivated by its own material interests. The country has so far been supplied with natural gas from Russia via the TurkStream pipeline. Washington is pushing for Russian gas to be replaced with US liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is delivered via a terminal on the Croatian island of Krk. A pipeline is now to be built from there to transport the gas on to Bosnia and Herzegovina. The plan is to have the pipeline built by the US firms Bechtel and AAFS Infrastructure and Energy, and the latter is run by a former lawyer of Trump’s, Jesse Binnall, and by Joseph Flynn, the brother of Trump’s former security adviser Michael Flynn.[3] Observers doubt the project makes economic sense for Bosnia and Herzegovina, since the country consumes very little natural gas and, moreover, intends to switch to renewable energy. Dodik, however, appears willing to support the project, at least in the Republika Srpska, into which the pipeline is also due to reach. What is more, the US Embassy has for some time been expressing an interest in raw material deposits in Serb-run areas.

Clan meets clan

Last autumn, the Trump administration struck a deal with Dodik under which he would settle his dispute with Schmidt and, in return, the US would remove him and business associates close to him from US sanctions lists. In February, Dodik was received in Washington by Republican members of Congress and US ‘Secretary of War’ Pete Hegseth. In early April, US President Donald Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., travelled to Banja Luka, the capital of the Republika Srpska, where he began lining up business deals and met in particular for talks with Dodik’s son, Igor Dodik.[4] Relations between the Trump and Dodik clans and the cliques surrounding them have been intensifying. With Dodik’s star rising in Washington, he reportedly expressed a desire for his arch-enemy Schmidt to be sacked.

Washington vs Berlin

Since last year, Schmidt has found himself being systematically sidelined in Sarajevo by the Trump administration. Rumours that he would resign have been circulating for months. On Sunday, Schmidt finally announced that he was stepping down from his post. According to reports, the Trump administration now has a successor in mind who is said to be “easier to manage” from the US perspective.[5] However, if the usual procedure is followed, the candidate would have to be elected by the Peace Implementation Council, which deals with Bosnia and Herzegovina in line with the Dayton Peace Accords. This body comprises fifty-five countries and international organisations, including numerous EU members and the EU itself. So if the pro-US candidate does not secure their votes, it will be difficult for Trump’s people to install him in Sarajevo. That said, Washington may well, at any time, impose new tariffs or exert pressure in other ways, and experience so far shows the EU is often highly accommodating towards US demands. The Austrian diplomat Wolfgang Petritsch, who was himself stationed in Sarajevo as High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina from 1999 to 2002, suggests a rethink of the whole arrangement. He would like to see the post of High Representative abolished after more than thirty years, particularly as the post confers anti-democratic, colonial-style interventionist powers that are bound to face increasing criticism.[6] However, approval for such a move is hardly expected from Berlin or Brussels.

[1], [2] See: Colonial Octroy.

[3] Adelheid Wölfl: Abhängigkeit verschieben: USA wollen russisches Gas in Europa durch eigenes ersetzen. derstandard.at 20.03.2026.

[4] Azem Kurtic: Trump Jr Visits Bosnian Serbs, Spotlighting Republika Srpska’s US Outreach. balkaninsight.com 07.04.2026.

[5], [6] Michael Martens: Christian Schmidt muss Bosnien wohl verlassen. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 11.05.2026.