BERLIN/WASHINGTON (own report) - The AfD has become the first party of the extreme right in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany to achieve over 20 per cent in a Bundestag election. It is now the second-strongest parliamentary group in the new parliament. This result confirms that the political balance is shifting to the right – across the EU and also in Germany. Far-right parties have even become the strongest force in some member states. They are the forces behind the prime minister of Italy and a number of ministers in other EU countries, both in the EU and also particularly in Germany. And, for the first time since 1949, extreme right elements are openly supported by members of the US administration. Vice President JD Vance gave his backing to the AfD ten days ago on the fringes of the Munich Security Conference. Elon Musk publicly called for AfD votes on the eve of the election. Friedrich Merz (CDU), who must be regarded as the next German Chancellor, announced to the US media that he intends to do something about Musk’s interference in the German election campaign. He would not, Merz said, rule out confrontations with the Trump administration after assuming power. As for the American side, their sharp economic and political threats against Berlin amount to an attempt to relegate Germany and the EU to the role of fringe players in global politics. Read more

BERLIN/MUNICH (own report) – Bureaucratic and police interventions to prevent a United Nations representative from speaking on Palestine mark a new low point in Germany’s ongoing suppression of free expression and assembly. In recent days, planned appearances by the UN Special Rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Francesca Albanese, have been cancelled at short notice in both Berlin and Munich under pressure from politicians and state authorities. The pretext for this latest crackdown is a policy of rigorous action against anyone alleged to hold antisemitic views. A replacement venue was found at short notice on Tuesday for Albanese: in the editorial offices of the leftist daily ‘junge Welt’. But the organisers then found themselves under intense surveillance by armed police. Police vehicles surrounded the building and officers forced their way in despite objections by the organisers. This ugly episode took place against a background of growing repression of those demonstrating against war in Gaza. Rallies are being violently dispersed, one formal reason being the language used by speakers: any language other than German or English can lead to arrest. This also goes for anti-Zionist Jewish protesters speaking Hebrew. Moreover, having adopted a controversial catch-all definition of antisemitism, the German government is now effectively curbing academic freedom. Renowned academics have been sharply criticising these policies – in vain. Read more

PARIS/BERLIN (own report) - In response to their exclusion from the Ukraine peace talks by the US, the bigger EU states, EU leaders and the UK came together in Paris on Monday to make a show of closing ranks. The Trump administration announced last Friday that it would negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine with Russia on without anyone else being at the table. The first direct talks are beginning without delay this Tuesday in Saudi Arabia between Foreign Ministers Marco Rubio and Sergei Lavrov. Washington’s decision to exclude the EU has pushed Europe to the sidelines and represents a bitter blow for Berlin and Paris in particular. On the one hand, yesterday’s meeting in Paris was intended to look at possible security guarantees for Kiev. Europe might, for example, put troops on the ground in the hope of gaining leverage and forcing its way back into a Ukraine peace process. The deployment of Germany’s Bundeswehr alongside other European armies is under discussion. On the other hand, European leaders are considering a massive joint arms build-up with the aim of turning the EU into an independent military power – independent, that is, of the United States. However, serious differences continue to exist within the EU. A continuation of the war in Ukraine is still considered by some as an option. Read more

KINSHASA/KIGALI/BERLIN (own report) – The decades-long support for Rwanda from Germany and the EU has increasingly been sparking protests due to the role played by the country in the fighting in eastern Congo. The Rwandan government in Kigali has for decades supported all kinds of militias in the neighbouring Kivu provinces in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Those forces are plundering raw materials on a huge scale and smuggling them into Rwanda. Kigali earns billions from these activities, while enabling militias to fight an ongoing war in eastern Congo. In recent months and weeks the M23 militia, with direct front-line support from the Rwandan army, has conquered large areas of the Kivu provinces. Countless inhabitants are fleeing their homes. Germany has, for a long time, been cooperating closely with Rwanda, a former colony of the German Reich. Berlin has also been considering Rwanda as a possible location for outsourcing asylum procedures to distant parts of the world. Last year, the EU signed an agreement with Kigali for raw material supplies. Observers expect “blood minerals” from the war in eastern Congo to be reaching Europe through this channel. Read more

BERLIN/DAMASCUS/RIYADH (own report) – With German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier on a trip to the Middle East and EU promises to ease sanctions on Syria, Berlin is working to influence the transitional government in Damascus. Steinmeier visited Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Turkey this week for discussions that included developments in Syria. Saudi Arabia and Turkey in particular exert strong influence on the interim president Ahmed al Sharaa. Qatar, whose emir spoke on the phone with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday, is also a key backer. Syria’s interim regime, which has emerged from the long-standing jihadist militia Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), is already facing criticism for creating “informal power structures” and a new “deep state”. At the same time, tensions are rising between the Sunni majority and the Alawite minority. Al-Sharaa is rejecting calls for autonomy from the Kurdish minority in northern Syria. Turkey, meanwhile, has begun military support for Damascus, training and arming the reformed Syrian armed forces. Berlin is keen to cooperate more closely with Ankara. Read more

BERLIN/CHIȘINĂU (own report) - Germany and the EU can celebrate an initial victory in their tussle with Russia for influence over the de facto republic of Transnistria, which seceded from the Republic of Moldova in the early 1990s. The factor pushing Transnistria into the arms of Brussels is a desperate energy crisis affecting the region, triggered by the Ukrainian government’s decision to stop the flow of Russian gas westwards through Ukrainian pipelines. Kiev had honoured gas transit agreements until the end of 2024. Hungary, Slovakia and Moldova have been particularly dependent on cheap Russian gas for energy security and this is transited via Ukraine. Kiev also benefited from the arrangement, receiving some 800 million US dollars a year in transit fees. With Transnistria now extremely vulnerable, Germany and the EU under Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s leadership are able to strengthen ties with the de facto republic’s government in Tiraspol. The traditionally dominant Russian influence over the territory is receding due to the war in Ukraine, which has cut it off from Russia. As one Western expert recently argued, Transnistria’s “future lies in Europe”. From Berlin’s point of view, this would represent a success in its efforts to push back Moscow’s influence in south-eastern Europe. Read more

BERLIN (own report) - The number of politically motivated attacks on refugee centres in Germany reached a new high last year. And the recorded number of attacks on refugees themselves remains stubbornly high. The alarming statistics show that offences committed with an extreme right-wing motivation averaged around one hundred every day in the first eleven months of 2024. This all follows a rapidly rising trend already visible over several years and includes a leap in anti-Muslim offences ranging from insults to assault and damage to property. Racists and far-right elements are encouraged by what happened last week in the German Bundestag. A motion that, only a few years ago, would have only met with the approval of neo-Nazi parties like the NPD was carried by a majority of parliamentarians. This outcome was only made possible by, for the first time, depending on the votes of the hard-right AfD. Since that breakthrough, the AfD has continued to climb in the opinion polls and will now hope for over 20 per cent in the upcoming federal election. Read more