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  • Obsessed with strength

    Trump extends period pledged to end Ukraine war to six months. German politicians oppose a Chinese role in Ukraine reconstruction. Ceasefire brings prospect of Ukrainian ‘hatred’ towards the West.

    KIEV/BERLIN (own report) - Ten days before the inauguration of future US President Donald Trump, the debate about scenarios for ending the war in Ukraine is hotting up. The Biden administration and the majority of European governments have been seeking to drag the war out, not least by supplying ever new weapons and funding Kiev. Trump, who once declared his intention to end the war straight away is now talking about needing up to six months. Meanwhile, popular support for the war is clearly on the decline, both in Ukraine itself and in Western Europe. Surveys show that there are majorities in a number of countries in favour of moving quickly to negotiations. With regard to the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, politicians are increasingly demanding the complete expropriation of Russian central bank assets parked in Europe. Following the West’s anti-Bejing narrative, German politicians are also categorically against accepting Chinese assistance in rebuilding the ravaged economy. Beijing should “definitely not play any role in the reconstruction of Ukraine,” demands Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP), Chairwoman of the Defence Committee in the European Parliament. Meanwhile, some observers expect to see elements in an exhausted post-war Ukraine develop a “hatred” towards the West as they realise NATO countries have not kept their promises to Kiev. Read more

VIDEO-KOLUMNE

War against China

There is a reflex in Europe that is detrimental to China. It is the downside of the respectful awe at China's vastness, its size, its culture, and statehood. By comparison, Europe appears tiny. The comparison mitigates the error of being incomparable. China is greater.

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  • An oligarch for the AfD

    US oligarch Elon Musk steps up endorsement of the AfD. Support for the far right in Europe coming from Trump’s circle since 2018. Key role played by a Hungary-based branch of a US organisation.

    WASHINGTON/BERLIN (own report) - US high-tech oligarch Elon Musk is topping his interventions in support of the AfD election campaign with a live chat with AfD spokesperson Alice Weidel this Thursday. The subject of the discussion, which Musk and the AfD are unanimously promoting, is above all “the AfD’s ideas for getting Germany fit for the future”, a Weidel spokesperson is quoted as saying. Musk has previously openly backed the party, just as he has spoken in support of ultra-right forces in other European countries, including the UK and Italy. The European far right had already enjoyed support from Donald Trump’s circle during Trump’s first presidency. The then US ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, for instance, abandoning all diplomatic reserve, declared in June 2018 that he “absolutely wants to strengthen other conservatives across Europe”. And, again in 2018, Trump’s former ‘chief strategist’ Steve Bannon tried to coordinate larger parties of the far right across Europe and help them achieve greater electoral success. Bannon may have failed back then, but since 2022, the US Republican’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) has become systematically rooted in Europe, linking European far-right forces to the US right via an offshoot based in Hungary. Read more

  • Deep in crisis

    Recession, falling production, rising insolvency: bleak prospects for the German economy in the new year. The damage is aggravated by US rivalry and economic warfare against Russia and China.

    BERLIN (own report) - The German economy has started the new year in a desolate state. The outlook for the near future is not good in view of further setbacks expected from the escalating disputes with the United States and China. Analysing the data, experts estimate that German economic output in 2024 shrank for the second year in a row and expect the downward trend to continue in 2025. This will be a first in the economic history of the Federal Republic of Germany. Investment has seen record declines. And industrial production is estimated to have shrunk by three per cent last year. The only area of growth in the economy is insolvencies. Three major projects worth billions were supposed to secure Germany’s position as a world leader in key future technologies – semiconductors and state-of-the-art batteries, including an Intel chip factory – but have failed. What is more, if US president-elect Donald Trump does impose crippling additional tariffs on imports from Germany after taking office on 20 January, Germany’s export industries will face severe setbacks in their most important market. Despite the dire outlook, Germany and the European Union are still expanding a painful economic war against China. Read more

  • The race for Syria (II)

    With her Damascus trip, Baerbock seeks greater influence on Syria. Meanwhile the new HTS-led regime pursues an Islamist agenda, focuses on cooperation with the Gulf states and rejects confrontation with Russia.

    DAMASCUS/BERLIN (own report) - Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has promised Syria’s new rulers a “new beginning” in bilateral relations. A widening of cooperation is, she says, possible if the new government, installed by the jihadist organisation Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), conducts “a political dialogue involving all ethnic and religious groups” and guarantees women’s rights. Baerbock put forward these conditions on Friday during her first visit to the Syrian capital. The HTS-led government is busy concentrating power in its hands across the country and has begun to set a new political and ideological course. In the education field, for example, non-Islamic content is to be removed from school textbooks and religious expressions such as ‘the damned’ are to be replaced specifically by ‘Jews and Christians’. At the same time, HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa is working closely with old allies Turkey and the Arab Gulf states, hoping now to attract substantial direct investment. The new leaders in Damascus are not prepared to comply with the demands coming from Berlin and the EU that they should close down the Russian military bases immediately. Good relations “with the second most powerful country in the world”, says al-Sharaa, align with Syria’s “strategic interests”. Read more

  • On Europe’s shoulders

    Zelensky has arrived in Brussels for talks. The key topics: shifting Ukraine support onto Europe’s shoulders, including a 40,000-strong European force to monitor a ceasefire.

    BERLIN/PARIS/KIEV (own report) - Talks began yesterday, Wednesday, in Brussels on shifting Ukraine support away from the United States to the countries of Europe. The background to this scenario is US President-elect Donald Trump’s call for a swift end to the fighting between Russia and Ukraine. Trump says the burden of the war and its consequences should be borne primarily by Europe. One proposal is for the European states to provide a military force of some 40,000 soldiers for deployment in a future demilitarised zone. The buffer zone would be along the demarcation line between Ukrainian and Russian-occupied territories once a ceasefire has been concluded. The plan was discussed yesterday, 18 December, by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in talks with various politicians, including above all French President Emmanuel Macron. Macron has been advancing similar ideas for some time. Talks will continue this Thursday. Meanwhile, the Russian armed forces are advancing faster than at any time since the end of February 2022, while Ukrainian military personnel are deserting in ever greater numbers. Some estimates put the figure at more than 200,000 soldiers so far. Read more

  • Upheavals in Syria (III)

    Berlin calls for a strong German role in Syria. Baerbock proposes a ‘Group of Friends of Syria’ including Western powers but excluding Russia and Iran. Cooperation sought with HTS jihadists.

    DAMASCUS/BERLIN (own report) – The German government is pushing for a strong German role in moves to reset foreign relations with Syria. It has announced closer cooperation with the jihadists of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS). German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock explains that since HTS is “de facto the new strong power in Syria”, Berlin should cooperate with them as part of a “pragmatic approach”. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius chimes in, “We as Europeans, as Germany” must now “see our responsibility to contribute to the stabilisation of the region.” The German government has chosen to play an active part in the fierce struggle between external powers for control over Syria – a struggle which has been ramped up with the fall of Damascus. Two NATO states and one of Germany’s closest allies are among those seeking to control developments in Syria. They have occupied parts of Syria in violation of international law and continue to strike at targets across the country in the wake of Assad’s collapse. These actors are Turkey, the US and Israel. Syria is again becoming a pawn in the hands of external powers from the Western world. Their overriding goal is to disempower their rivals – Russia and Iran. Read more

  • Upheavals in Syria (II)

    Scholz declares his willingness to cooperate with ‘the new rulers’ in Syria. In Idlib, where they have ruled for years, women cannot vote, Christians have no civil rights, while torture and disappearances are widespread.

    DAMASCUS/BERLIN (own report) - German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron have declared that they are “ready” to work together with “the new rulers” in Syria. Both emphasised this stance in a telephone call on Monday evening. Cooperation should, they agreed, be “on the basis of fundamental human rights and the protection of ethnic and religious minorities”. Abu Muhammad al Julani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), a jihadist organisation that rules the governorate of Idlib, is generally regarded as the new “strong man in Syria”. Only selected males have the right to vote in Idlib, women do not. Christians have limited rights, while Alawites and Druze are considered apostates from Islam and are persecuted. Torture is common and dozens of cases of “disappeared” persons have been documented. Journalists critical of HTS have been murdered by HTS militants. Children are told to follow the “path to martyrdom”. The previous prime minister in Idlib has now been appointed prime minister of the Syrian transitional government. Despite the chaotic situation, some German politicians are urging rapid deportations to Syria. Read more

  • Upheavals in Syria (I)

    Sanctions imposed by Germany and the EU have contributed to the fall of Bashar al Assad. Jihadist militia Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) can thank Europe for its breakthrough to power in Damascus.

    DAMASCUS/BERLIN (own report) - With their sanctions against Syria, Germany and the EU have contributed to the fall of Syrian President Bashar al Assad and the triumph of the jihadist militia Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS). The fact that the HTS offensive could lead to the capture of Damascus in just eleven days had several causes. There was widespread corruption in the Syrian armed forces, and they were in part infiltrated by opposition activists. The internal corrosion meant that the army melted away when the HTS launched its military campaign. State corruption and general discontent among the population were, however, fuelled by Western sanctions, with really drastic consequences. Syrians faced a massive increase in poverty and hunger. As early as 2019, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) warned that the sanctions ultimately amounted to a “scorched earth policy that indiscriminately and arbitrarily punishes ordinary Syrians”. A beneficiary of the widespread discontent has been the HTS. The Islamist militant group, which was able to establish a repressive regime in the Idlib governorate based on a harsh interpretation of Sharia law, is now taking power in Damascus. Read more