Indecisive (II)

Berlin seeks to exploit the Armenian government’s efforts to sever its traditionally close ties with Russia to strengthen German positions. The rivalry affects energy policy, the military and the intelligence services.

Aug

2024

YEREVAN/BERLIN (Own report) – The German government is seeking to exploit the Armenian government’s efforts to sever the country’s decades-long alliance with Russia to strengthen Germany’s position in that Caucasus republic. Berlin is thus increasing the German contribution to the European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA), a monitoring mission at the border with Azerbaijan. Whereas France is actively promoting Armenia’s rapprochement with the EU, the German government is still relatively restrained: Germany’s alliance with Azerbaijan and Turkey – two authoritarian states that have been engaged in a bitter conflict with Armenia for decades – is an obstacle to a stronger German commitment to the country’s direct integration into the EU. The power struggle between the West and Russia is unfolding on various levels in Armenia – from the intelligence services to energy policy. Yerevan is also seeking to reduce Russia’s military presence in the country. According to experts, however, for Armenia, to completely change sides is unrealistic. At best, it could be a question of diversification. Iran is also benefitting from this situation.

Old and New Cooperation Partners

According to a survey by the International Republican Institute (IRI), affiliated with the US Republicans, nearly half of Armenia’s population considers France to be its most important ally on political and security issues, whereas a majority of the population sees Iran as the major partner in the field of economic cooperation.[1] The survey clearly shows Russia’s loss of prestige, Armenia’s long-standing political, military and economic ally. In February, the Armenian government of neoliberal politician Nikol Pashinyan announced that it would freeze its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). This was followed, in June, by the announcement that the Caucasian country was leaving the CSTO.[2] While Armenia’s CSTO membership could soon end, the acting foreign minister hinted that his country could seek accession to the EU.[3] The German press: cheered: “Turning away from Moscow, towards Brussels”.[4]

Berlin Vacillates

Unlike the French government, the German government is not positioning itself openly in favor of Armenia’s rapprochement with the EU and other Western organizations. For Germany, its relations with neighboring countries Azerbaijan and Turkey, which are hostile to Yerevan, seem far too important. Germany is nevertheless participating in the European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA), a monitoring mission at the Armenian border with Azerbaijan. EUMA is headed by a German federal police officer – the former president of the Stuttgart Federal Police Headquarters.[5] Last March, the German government even decided to expand the German EUMA contingent.[6] Due to its long-standing cooperation with the petro-dictatorship of Azerbaijan and in view of Armenia’s - albeit slow - opening towards Germany, the German government can present itself as a mediator in the South Caucasus conflict: In the spring of this year, trilateral talks between German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (The Greens) and representatives of Armenia and Azerbaijan took place at the Villa Borsig in Berlin.[7]

Raw Materials

In its recently published study, the Heinrich-Böll Foundation, affiliated with Baerbock’s Green Party, analyzed the current mining situation Armenia. According to this study, the Caucasian republic is “rich in a variety of […] resources, such as iron, copper, molybdenum, lead, zinc, gold, silver, antimony, and aluminum, as well as in scarce and scattered metals enclosed therein, such as rhenium, selenium, tellurium, cadmium, indium, helium, thallium, and bismuth”.[8] For decades, the Zangezur Copper Molybdenum (ZCMC) in southern Armenia, the country’s largest private employer and major taxpayer, has been owned by the Karlsruhe-based company Cronimet.[9] To this day, the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) maintains a Memorandum of Understanding with Armenian partners, even though no activity is currently being undertaken within the framework of this agreement. If rapprochement continues between Armenia and the EU, German mining companies can rely on many years of experience and cooperation formats with Armenia.

Military rivalry

With EUMA, the EU has, for the first time, been directly engaged in Armenia in terms of security policy. Two weeks ago, the European Council also approved a €10 million support measure for the Armenian armed forces for the first time.[10] However, Russia, for decades Armenia’s established cooperation partner, still has troops stationed in the country. According to an assessment made back in 2021, at the time, there were around 4,500 Russian border guard troops stationed in Armenia.[11] The Border guards are protecting Armenia’s borders to Turkey and Iran, as well as areas of its capital Yerevan’s airport. In March of this year, the Armenian government asked Moscow to withdraw the Russian border troops from Yerevan’s airport.[12] In May the Russian government agreed to withdraw some of the Russian troops from that Caucasus country.[13] However, the Russian 102^nd military base in Gyumri in northern Armenia will remain for the time being. Although Prime Minister Pashinyan declared in October 2023 that he saw “no advantage” in continuing to host Russian military bases,[14] the current lease contract for the base expires only in 2044.[15]

Change of Course by the Intelligence Services

Nevertheless, the government of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is working on a long term loosening of the country’s close ties that the police, military and intelligence services have to Moscow. In 2023, the head of state created a new intelligence service, to replace the foreign intelligence department of the old intelligence service. It is headed by a female, former human rights ombudsman; she is the first Armenian head of intelligence services without ties to Russia.[16]

Energy Competition

The current Armenian government is working to minimize its ties to Moscow in the energy sector, as well. Talks have been engaged with representatives from the United States about the construction of new nuclear reactors in this Caucasus republic.[17] Until now, its most important source of electricity is the Mezamor nuclear power plant, the sole nuclear power plant in the entire Caucasus region. It is currently being run with Russian assistance and covers around a third of Armenia’s electricity needs. In December of last year, representatives of Armenia and Russia signed a contract to modernize and extend Metsamor’s lifespan to 2036.[18] Berlin and Brussels are cooperating otherwise: With Western help, among other things, the Caucasus republic will be plugged into the EU network via a cable under the Black Sea, and thereby freed from its dependence on Russia.[19]

Maneuvers

The situation is similar in the military field. In late July, a relatively small force of Armenian and US soldiers exercised during the binational “Eagle Partner” “interoperability” in “peacekeeping and stability operations.”[20] Armenia cooperating with Western militaries is nothing new: Armenian soldiers have served – or are serving – under German command as part of NATO’s KFOR and ISAF missions. In addition, following the war of the illegal aggression against Iraq, soldiers from the Caucasus country were stationed under Polish command in Iraq.

Other powers

After police officers from the EU – Germans included – were stationed in the Caucasus republic within the EUMA mission, the recently deceased Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi met Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan in Tehran and criticized the “presence of outside forces” in the region.[21] A waning of Russian influence in the country does not inevitably mean a strengthening of Western influence: Alongside Iran’s traditional influence, the People’s Republic of China’s influence in the Caucasus country has also been growing over the past decade.[22] India’s influence, as well, is increasing in Armenia.[23]

“Diversify, not Replace”

Even though the current Armenian government is currently trying to reduce its dependence on Russia and expand its relations with a number of Western countries – Germany included – a clear change of blocs seems currently unrealistic. “A country like Armenia can ill afford to abandon an existing security architecture without alternatives. And such alternatives simply do not exist,” stated Arman Grigoryan recently, a former advisor to the first Armenian president Levon Ter-Petrosyan (in office from 1991 to 1998).[24] Recently, an Armenian expert was quoted in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung as saying that the Armenian government is not interested in “replacing Russia”, but merely in diversifying its foreign relations.[25]

[1] Public Opinion Survey: Residents of Armenia | December 2023. iri.org 11.03.2024.

[2] Armenien will von Russland geführtes Militärbündnis verlassen. berliner-zeitung.de 12.06.2024.

[3] Armenien erwägt Beitritt zur EU. deutschlandfunk.de 13.03.2024.

[4] Friedrich Schmidt: Weg von Moskau, hin zu Brüssel. faz.net 18.03.2024.

[5] Dr. Markus Ritter, Head of Mission of the European Union Mission in Armenia. eeas.eu 17.02.2023.

[6] Mehr Polizistinnen und Polizisten für EU-Mission in Armenien. bundesregierung.de 27.03.2024.

[7] Erklärungen des Auswärtigen Amts in der Regierungspressekonferenz vom 01.03.2024. auswaertiges-amt.de 01.03.2024.

[8] Artur Grigoryan/Tehmineh Yenoqyan: Critical raw materials in Armenia, in: The Raw Materials Situation in Neighboring European Countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Georgia, Armenia, E-Paper der Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung, Juli 2024.

[10] Europäische Friedensfazilität: Rat nimmt erstmals Unterstützungsmaßnahme zugunsten der armenischen Streitkräfte an. consilium.europa.eu 22.07.2024.

[11] Hovhannes Nazaretyan: Russia’s Increasing Military Presence in Armenia. evnreport.com 04.03.2021.

[12] Armenia Officially Asks Moscow To Remove Russian Border Troops From Yerevan Airport. rferl.org 06.03.2024.

[13] Putin stimmt Teilabzug russischer Truppen aus Armenien zu. sueddeutsche.de 09.05.2024.

[14] Armenia sees no advantage in keeping Russian military bases – PM to WSJ. reuters.com 25.10.2023.

[15] Joshua Kucera: The Russian Military Base In Armenia At The Eye Of A Geopolitical Storm. rferl.org 24.03.2024.

[16] Thomas de Waal: Armenia Navigates a Path Away From Russia. carnegieendowment.org 11.07.2024.

[17] Onnik James Krikorian: Armenia Looks West to Reduce Nuclear Energy Dependency on Russia. jamestown.org 22.07.2024.

[18] Lilit Shahverdyan: Russia to revamp Armenia’s nuclear power plant. eurasianet.org 21.12.2023.

[19] Thomas de Waal: Armenia Navigates a Path Away From Russia. carnegieendowment.org 11.07.2024.

[20] Ani Avetisyan: Russia rages over US military exercise in Armenia. eurasianet.org 19.07.2024.

[21] Vali Kaleji: Iran’s Paradoxical Expectations for Political Developments in Armenia. jamestown.org 17.07.2024.

[22] Gayane Asryan: Soft power: China’s spheres of influence in Armenia. Analysis and human stories. jam-news.net 25.02.2024.

[23] See also Zwischen den Stühlen.

[24] Thomas de Waal: Armenia Navigates a Path Away From Russia. carnegieendowment.org 11.07.2024.

[25] Friedrich Schmidt: Kreml warnt Armenien vor „ukrainischem Weg”. faz.net 25.07.2024.