Warships in the Red Sea

Wave of attacks in the Middle East

The strikes carried out by Yemeni Houthi militias on ships in the Red Sea are part of an extensive wave of attacks by groups cooperating with Iran. They began after the Hamas massacre on 7 October and are primarily aimed at Israeli and US targets. From southern Lebanon, Hezbollah is firing at northern Israel, whose armed forces in turn are targeting Hezbollah positions. Four civilians and eight soldiers have so far been killed on the Israeli side, while over 130 people are reported dead on the Lebanese side, including 17 civilians and 94 Hezbollah fighters.[1] The risk of the situation escalating into an all-out war is considered high. In addition, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria have resumed the shelling of US military bases. According to US figures, 92 attacks were carried out between 17 October and 15 December, around half in Iraq and the other half in Syria.[2] Recently, Iraqi Shiite militias even attacked the US embassy in Baghdad, although the US reports only minor damage and no injuries.[3] US forces are carrying out some counter-attacks in Syria and Iraq, but Washington is discernibly seeking to prevent the skirmishes with Shiite militias from getting out of control.

Washington faced with conflicting objectives

The wider context here is that a rapidly widening new war in the Middle East would, as things stand, tie down US forces across the region on a large scale. Such direct military involvement would occur at a time when Washington actually wants to focus capacities on the Asia-Pacific region so as to strengthen its position in its core power struggle with China. The Biden administration has already allowed itself to be side-tracked from the Asia-Pacific pivot by its support for Ukraine in the war with Russia – a stance now being sharply criticised by a growing number of Republican politicians, including not least presidential hopeful Donald Trump, whose prospects for re-election look good. In the Gaza Strip, too, the United States is faced with a difficult conflict of objectives. On the one hand, Washington cannot refuse to support Israel, by far its most important ally in the region. On the other, Israel’s military onslaught, which is being condemned worldwide, is turning even a partially stable pacification of the Middle East into an increasingly distant prospect. And this greatly reduces Washington’s chances of extracting its own forces in the region in order to pivot more strongly to the Asia-Pacific region. This Monday, US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and US Chief of Staff Charles Q. Brown arrive in Israel to urge greater military restraint.[4]

Rising costs

In this situation, the attacks by the Houthi militias on merchant ships in the Red Sea put the US under further pressure. Massive bombardment of Houthi positions, as demanded by Israel, threaten to further escalate the situation, moving the actors towards a war that could spread right across the region. So far, US forces have largely limited themselves to repelling the Houthi attacks. On Saturday, for example, a US warship was reported to have shot down fourteen approaching drones, while a British warship destroyed another unmanned combat aerial vehicle.[5] Last Friday’s Houthi attacks on two cargo ships have raised the stakes. Following those strikes, several major shipping companies (Maersk, Hamburg-based Hapag-Lloyd and MSC) announced that they would avoid the Red Sea as long as the danger persists. The only alternative is the long voyage around the African continent.[6] The consequences for trade and industry could be very serious. A good ten per cent of all global trade passes through the Red Sea. Longer routes cost time and money. Goods that have to be shipped to buyers via lengthy detours are more expensive and will strain supply chains as primary and upstream products arrive late. Experts warn that there could be a surge in the price of crude oil and liquefied natural gas, which Europe sources from the Persian Gulf for example.[7]

Naval coalition against the Houthis

Washington is now taking a two-pronged approach. On the one hand, according to reports, US forces have already identified possible targets for attacks on the Houthi militias.[8] On the other, the Biden administration is working to assemble a broad naval coalition for deployment in the Red Sea in order to deter the Houthis. The latter move was already being mooted at the beginning of December, and concrete talks with US allies, including Germany, were held a fortnight ago.[9] The German government confirmed on Friday that it is currently considering participation in a multinational naval mission. Apart from the United States and Great Britain, France already has a naval presence in the area. The US is also in talks with the Netherlands on a Dutch role in the intervention. The German Navy is, for its part, considered a favoured candidate for participation on account of its earlier involvement in the EU’s “Atalanta” naval operation to combat pirates off the Horn of Africa. That mission ran from 2008 to 2022. The Germans also ran their own logistics base in Djibouti until 2021, giving the Bundeswehr an in-depth knowledge of this strategically very important maritime region. In concrete terms, interest will centre on Germany’s Sachsen-class frigates with their “special air defence capabilities”. The deployment of aerial reconnaissance is also an option.[10]

Danger of war

The first voices publically calling for the Bundeswehr to join a naval intervention in the Red Sea are coming from German industry and the FDP. Martin Kröger, Chief Executive Officer of the German Shipowners’ Association (VDR), is quoted as saying that it would be “appropriate for Germany to participate in accordance with the situation”.[11] After all, he argues, its navy vessels have already escorted German merchant ships around the Horn of Africa to protect them from pirates – with success. Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, Chairwoman of the Bundestag Defence Committee, is also demanding deployment, saying at the end of last week, “We should be supporting the role of the navy, together with international partners, in protecting the ships.”[12] In her view, it is only “logical for everyone who depends on their goods being transported through the Red Sea to participate.” Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has confirmed that no decision on a possible deployment has yet been taken. If Germany were to participate in the intervention, the Bundeswehr would be directly involved in a conflict that could escalate into open warfare in the Middle East. There is a looming danger of this happening in the coming days, weeks or months, not only around the Red Sea but also on the Israeli-Lebanese border, in Syria and in Iraq.

[1] Israel says it struck Hezbollah sites after attacks from Lebanon. reuters.com 17.12.2023.

[2] Laurence Norman, Sune Engel Rasmussen: Iran Hoped to Profit From Israel-Hamas War, but Big Gains Still Elude It. wsj.com 15.12.2023.

[3] Qassim Abdul-Zahra: A rocket attack targets the US Embassy in Baghdad, causing minor damage but no casualties. apnews.com 08.12.2023.

[4] Willy Lowry: US defence secretary to press Israel on next phase of Gaza war. thenationalnews.com 17.12.2023.

[5] Jill Lawless: US and Britain say their navies shot down 15 attack drones over the Red Sea. apnews.com 16.12.2023.

[6] Jannis Hagmann: Drohen Folgen für den Weltmarkt? taz.de 17.12.2023.

[7] Giorgio Cafiero: Will oil prices rise after Red Sea shipping curbs amid Houthi attacks? aljazeera.com 16.12.2023.

[8] Liam Stack, Mike Ives, Gaya Gupta: Tensions Spilling Over From Gaza to Red Sea Escalate. nytimes.com 16.12.2023.

[9] Peter Baker: U.S. Considers Task Force to Guard Red Sea Ships From Iranian Proxy Forces. nytimes.com 04.12.2023.

[10] Peter Carstens, Christoph Ehrhardt: Eine Seemacht gegen Huthi-Angriffe. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 13.12.2023.

[11] Reeder meiden den Suezkanal. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 18.12.2023.

[12] Strack-Zimmermann will Deutsche Marine im Roten Meer einsetzen. n-tv.de 16.12.2023.