Battle over Syria (IV)

Germany's Specific Role

In an interview with Germany's ARD public television, Syria's President Bashar al Assad acknowledged Germany's role in hosting Syrian refugees. "From a humanitarian point of view" he appreciates the fact that refugees are accepted in Germany, Assad declared during the interview, which was broadcast yesterday evening. He believes, however, that it would be more "humanitarian" and also "less costly to help those people remain in their country." Asked if Germany could play "a specific role in the whole Syrian question," Assad answered that he "hopes" that "especially European countries" - among them Germany "that is supposedly leading the EU politically, not only economically"- could "play a role" in Syria. But that would mean they have to be "independent of the American position," something he does not yet see.[1] The Assad interview was broadcast at a moment, when Berlin is seeking to take on a leading role in the international negotiations to end the war in Syria and if successful, to enhance Germany's influence through Syria's reconstruction. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[2])

Powerful Jihadists

As Berlin seeks to broaden its activities in Syria, a US think tank is sharply criticizing western warfare in that country - also involving the German Bundeswehr within the framework of combating the "Islamic State" (IS/Daesh). According to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) - an affiliate of the military industrial complex, considered very aggressive politically - it is wrong to focus the fight on Daesh and ignore other jihadist organizations, particularly Jabhat al Nusra and similar militias. Western powers have basically spared jihadist militia such as Ahrar al Sham and al Qaeda's affiliate Jabhat al Nusra, considered to be one of the most powerful terrorist militias in Syria. The West has even approved of Saudi and Turkish support for these jihadists, thought capable of overthrowing the Assad government. Only Russia is combating all of the jihadist militias. Indignant for other reasons about Russian warfare in Syria, ISW makes a detailed criticism of the West's approach.

A Rival Caliphate

As noted by ISW, not only Daesh, also Al Nusra is striving to establish a global caliphate - however under al Qaeda's leadership - wherein Syria will be incorporated as an Islamic emirate. To create such an Islamic emirate, the method pursued by Al Nusra is different from that of Daesh. Whereas Daesh seeks to impose its rule from the top, down, Al Nusra seeks initially a predominating position among the Salafi-jihadi movements, to parallel become embedded in the population, to take power from the ground up. For this, Al Nusra is using the war against the Assad government. "It embeds itself within civil and military institutions (of the opposition, editor's note) and begins to transform them," explains the ISW, while gradually shifting "social norms" in the regions under its control "to match those of al Qaeda."[3]

Al Qaeda's Social Control

To expand its effective radius, Al Nusra is selectively cooperating with other Salafi-jihadi militias. The resulting interdependence creates greater tolerance for the presence of the Al Qaeda subsidiary and acceptance for its ideology, writes ISW. In the process, Al Nusra uses the Ahrar al Sham [4] militia as its "primary vehicle" for winning acceptance and influence. Important is the cooperation in alliances with other insurgent groups, for example, with Jaysh al Fatah. Parallel, Al Nusra is striving to establish itself also beyond the military level. It is represented in Sharia courts by legal experts and has teamed up with other Salafist militias to form new organs of Islamic law, which play an important governing function in parts of western Syria. The Al Qaeda subsidiary organizes religious education for children in madrassas and Sharia lessons for adults, while also assuming humanitarian services. These activities are concentrated primarily in the Aleppo and Idlib Provinces, where the group's social control is highest, according to ISW.[5]

Choice of Partners

This has been reflected in media reports from northern Syria. In the meantime, it is "almost impossible" to escape the influence of Al Nusra, as a rebel commander from Azaz, close to the Turkish border, was quoted. The Al Qaeda subsidiary has a high presence in and around Aleppo, as well as in the Idlib Province, where even non-jihadi militias hardly dare attempt their independence.[6] Though this depicts the strength of Al Nusra, it is true only to a limited extent. Recently Syrian insurgents have found it quite easy to avoid the Al Nusra's influence, provided they do not share its Salafi-jihadi objectives. A number of the former insurgents are today fighting alongside the Syrian-Kurdish YPG, not only against Daesh, but also against Al Nusra. This is "a military alliance that transcends ethnic and religious affiliations, where alongside Christians, Arab, and Turkmen militias, ... the Kurdish YPG is also involved," writes a correspondent.[7]

Granting Al Nusra an Open Field

The ISW considers it a serious mistake, for the West to tactically grant Al Nusra an open field. Al Nusra is in direct contact with Ayman al Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's successor, as the leader of Al Qaeda, and reserves itself the future option of making terrorist attacks against western targets. Al Nusra probably "poses the most dangerous threat to the U.S. from al Qaeda in the coming years."[8] To ignore this would be a fatal mistake, because al Nusra is poised to benefit from "Daesh's defeat by moving into territories from which Daesh has been cleared." The western strategy of merely waging war on Daesh and letting Al Nusra fight Assad, could "ensure al Qaeda control over a significant portion of Syria," warns ISW. To prevent this, not only Daesh but also al Nusra and the "non-al Qaeda, non- ISIS Salafi-jihadi base on which both groups draw" must be destroyed.

Reconstruction with Salafists

If the war is ended and reconstruction efforts are successfully initiated in Syria, Berlin - which seeks to be involved in the rebuilding efforts to enhance its influence in that country - would also be confronted with the reinforced Salafi-jihadi organizations, or their influence on the population. This would be the result of the West's failed attempt to use Al Nusra and other jihadi militias to overthrow the Assad government.

More on this topic can be found here: The Radius of Germany's Governance Policy, Battle over Syria (II), and Battle over Syria (III).

[1] English transcript of the Assad interview: sana.sy/en/.
[2] See The Radius of Germany's Governance Policy, Leadership for Syria, Ein Marshallplan für Mittelost and Battle over Syria (II).
[3] Jennifer Cafarella, Harleen Gambhir, Katherine Zimmerman: Jabhat al Nusra and ISIS: Sources of Strength. Institute for the Study of War, February 2016.
[4] See Steinmeier und das Oberlandesgericht.
[5] Jennifer Cafarella, Harleen Gambhir, Katherine Zimmerman: Jabhat al Nusra and ISIS: Sources of Strength. Institute for the Study of War, February 2016.
[6] Christoph Ehrhardt: Nach dem Drehbuch Putins. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 24.02.2016.
[7] Alfred Hackensberger: "Die Waffenlieferungen reichten nur zum Sterben". www.welt.de 20.02.2016.
[8] Jennifer Cafarella, Harleen Gambhir, Katherine Zimmerman: Jabhat al Nusra and ISIS: Sources of Strength. Institute for the Study of War, February 2016.