Overt or Covert

The trip to Myanmar by the EU Commissioner for Development, Louis Michel, which shortly followed an emergency session of the EU development ministers, is to seek a further opening of that country to personnel of western aid organizations. These are not solely religious and privately run relief organizations, but also governmental associations. In the meantime an agency of the German interior ministry, the Federal Agency for Technical Relief (THW), is on its way to Yangon to insure potable water supply. The THW that seeks to enter the country on a humanitarian ticket, is different from relief organizations. Because it is directly subordinated to state control, it can in no sense be considered non-partisan. It also works in cooperation with the German Bundeswehr (military). It is supposed to take over tasks in Afghanistan that had previously been carried out by soldiers, so that the Bundeswehr can be freed to concentrate on its war fighting effort.[1] Myanmar's opening its borders to western organizations - including the THW - was coerced through threats of military intervention. These threats were again confirmed Monday, May 12, by the International Crisis Group, an influential organization of western policy advisors.[2] With their offensive, Berlin and Brussels are hoping to manifest their right to have access to Myanmar. Subsequent to support for the uprisings last fall, the current agitation is part of a campaign of attrition against Naypyidaw.

Official Visits

This attrition campaign follows decades of cooperation with the military government in Naypyidaw, which was scaled back in the late 1980s. German mercantile and maritime links to the British colony, Burma, were already developed during Kaiser Wilhelm's empire, which in the 19th century became Yangon's second most important commercial partner in Europe. Even after World War I, Germany maintained this status. Following the Second World War, Germany was again able to recuperate its strength lost through the war, at times even becoming Burma's most important non-Asian commercial partner. The military's taking power in 1962 did not hamper this close cooperation. In 1986 the German President Richard von Weizsaecker paid an official visit to the country and his counterpart San Yu was received in Bonn in 1987 with full honors.

Assault Rifles

For decades the close business ties were enhanced by arms deliveries. In 1953, only five years after the country's declaration of independence, German companies were assisting the former British colony in the production of submachine guns and ammunition. In the 1960s - even after the military putsch - German companies provided the country with tens of thousands of assault rifles. Yangon was even authorized by Bonn to produce G3 assault rifles under license. The cooperation included the delivery of facilities for producing explosives as well as a comprehensive modernization of Burmese munitions factories. In May 1988 the Burmese general Ne Win visited Germany and the partner in weapons production, the Fritz Werner Corp. The extensive German-Burmese arms cooperation [3] had one clear objective. Today diplomats readily admit that the objective was to prevent the Communist Party of Burma, which, until the 1970s, was supported by China, from coming to power.

Change of Course

The 1988 sudden West German change of course, in its policy toward Burma, was preceded by far-reaching transformations in the People's Republic of China. Up into the 1970s, Beijing had sought the overthrow of the military government through the Burmese Communist Party. But in the 1980s, the "reformers," around Deng Xiaoping, introduced a policy of cooperation with Burmese military government. That cooperation continues to this day. Due to China's steadily evolving global political significance, Beijing has won substantial influence in Myanmar, even though its government maintains its reserves vis à vis its gigantic neighbor and seeks to avoid becoming too dependent.[4] China's extensive change of course in the 1980s, encompassing also other fields of policy, and obviously pursuing its rise in the global constellation, was followed by a change in western foreign policy. Since the mid 80s, the West was not only supporting anti-Chinese forces within the resurging People's Republic of China, (including Tibet)[5] but also those in Myanmar. The opposition around Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was particularly benefiting. After the military government in 1990, cheated her out of an election victory, she has been the West's main Myanmarian ally ever since.

Pretext, Not Cause

The German government used as a pretext the Burmese military's bloody suppression of violent protests in the summer of 1988. The generals, whose troops were using their G3 assault rifles to shoot down the revolting population, were surprised by the sudden change of course, particularly since Bonn never raised the slightest protest in similar cases of bloody repression of revolts in the 1970s. The German change of course was in step with a corresponding change of course in the USA, even though it remained controversial for a long time in German diplomatic circles. The real cause was the already predictable rivalry with China and the close cooperation beginning to be developed between China and the Burmese military government. Last fall's revolts,[6] - sparked by the International Monetary Fund's price imposition - and the government's current refusal to unconditionally fulfill the demands of western relief organizations, are not the causes, but rather the pretexts for more harsh measures against Myanmar, aimed in reality at the influence of China in the country.

Olympic Protest

The demands include everything from a wide ranging open door policy toward the West to the overthrow of the present government. As "The Irrawaddy", the US financed daily of the Myanmarian opposition in exile, recently wrote, "the tropical cyclone Nargis was not only a natural disaster; it could also signal political upheaval."[7] Myanmarian exile circles, using the occasion of the Olympic Games in Beijing, are currently linking their demands to the campaign against China, to completely isolate Myanmar. Besides calling for a boycott of the Olympic Games, the opposition reminds that the opening date of the Olympics, August 8,[8] also marks the 20 anniversary of the suppression of the 1988 uprising. The Myanmarian opposition plans new protests around this anniversary.

Air Strikes

It is not yet clear, how far the West would like to escalate the conflict. Berlin does not exclude a military intervention during the distribution of relief supplies. And air strikes against Myanmarian targets are being discussed in the United States. An influential commentator from the neo-con establishment in Washington is contemplating "military measures, overt or convert, against the regime's infrastructure" - starting with "limited" actions.[9] A US warship is en route to Myanmar - supposedly carrying relief supplies.

Conflagration

These barely covert plans for a putsch are provoking astonishment among Myanmar experts. In spite of all of their criticism of the military regime - they agree that the country with its numerous secessionist conflicts would face complete collapse in case of Naypyidaw's disempowerment. Several regions of the country would be threatened with an immediate outbreak of gruesome civil war. Though very critical of the regime, even the Heinrich Boell Foundation (affiliated to the German Green Party) writes: "At present, there is no politically organized, civilian alternative to the military regime that could assume power in the event of a coup."[10] But, to oust its Chinese rival, Berlin continues with its escalation - risking a conflagration in Southeast Asia.

[1] see also Paramilitary
[2] Gareth Evans: Facing Up to Our Responsibilities; The Guardian 12.05.2008. See also In The Shadow of Catastrophe (III)
[3] Roman Deckert: "Stark und Schnell": Deutsche Waffen in Birma; BITS Kleinwaffen-Newsletter November 2007
[4] China no sure bet on Myanmar; Asia Times 08.11.2007
[5] Tibetische Sezessionisten wurden bereits in den 1950er und 1960er Jahren mit Millionenbeträgen durch die CIA gefördert, mussten jedoch in den 1970er Jahren zurückstecken, als Washington direkte Beziehungen zu Beijing aufnahm. Seit den 1980er Jahren erhalten sie wieder westliche Unterstützung, unter anderem aus der Bundesrepublik. See also Operations Against China and À la Südtirol
[6] see also Prestigious and Mit langem Atem
[7] "Nicht nur eine Naturkatastrophe"; Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 06.05.2008. "The Irrawaddy" erhält Mittel des National Endowment for Democracy (NED), der zahlreiche Umstürze und Umsturzversuche in Osteuropa und Zentralasien finanziert hat.
[8] Die Zahl 8 gilt in China als Glückszahl. Viele Chinesen halten es etwa für erstrebenswert, eine Telefonnummer mit der Endzahl 8 zu haben. Die Terminierung der Olympia-Eröffnungsfeier auf den 8. August (8.8.08) entspricht dieser Symbolik.
[9] William Kristol: Talk Is Cheap. Couldn't the U.S. Do More to Pressure Burma's Junta?; The Washington Post 07.10.2007
[10] Myanmar/Burma - Wege aus der Sackgasse? www.boell.de/alt/de/05_world/5318.html. See also: "Für einen Umsturz fehlen die politischen Strukturen". Birma-Experte Will im Interview; www.tagesschau.de/ausland/birma44.html. Uta Gärtner: Verhärtete Fronten; junge Welt 01.11.2007.