Energy, Terror, Migration
BERLIN/PARIS/LONDON/ROM (Own report) - The European policy declaration of the German Chancellor, announced to be made public next week, is to initiate a modified version of the unsuccessful campaign for a EU constitution and create the image for Berlin as "the pacesetter of the continent". Government circles are circulating this line to foreign media. In EU politics the "susceptibilities of hesitant partners" can no longer be taken into consideration, is to be heard from Chancellor's Office in Berlin. These insinuations are directed at France, whose government is considered incapable of keeping abreast of EU expansion and master its domestic security. The findings of studies carried out by Berlin are also skeptical about the ability of British EU allies to prevail. The government in Italy is threatened with its possible suspension from the EU group, should Rome oppose the German concept. Already two weeks ago, government circles had made known that, during the German EU council presidency, in the first half of next year, Angela Merkel was "determined" to give the complex around a constitution treaty "a last political chance." The circulation of these announcements are destined to prepare the other nations for a more rigorous approach taken in the economic and political competition among the core states of the EU.
The upcoming government declaration of the chancellor is intended as the inauguration of an imposed debate on the constitution, which will be continued in Austria on May 27 and 28 during a special meeting of the EU foreign ministers. The Austrian government, which currently presides over the EU council, has, in agreement with Berlin, again placed the draft constitution on the agenda, although the document has been rejected with referenda in France and the Netherlands.[1] For the subsequent EU summit, in June, a "re-evaluation" is scheduled.[2] Together with Finland, which succeeds Austria in the council presidency in July, the German government will push strongly for the ratification of the document, during the second half of the year, as well as, during the German presidency of the council (from January to June 2007), announced the German Foreign Minister, Steinmeier, after discussions with his Finnish colleague, Tuomioja.[3] The conflict is focused upon the draft constitution, because it is seen as an indicator for the disposition of the weaker EU member states for subordination under the respectively next stronger member state and aids Berlin in building up a subsequent leadership advantage.
The French Elite
An impediment to German plans is the French presidential elections. They are scheduled for June 2007, and therefore fall within the period of German council presidency, an overlapping, that Berlin has no intention of taking into consideration. Chancellor Merkel appears "determined" to impose the clinching debate on the draft constitution, even if it means the "paralysis of the French partner." Two weeks ago German government circles made known that: "Germany, as the largest member nation" must live up to its paramount importance inside the EU and be "capable of such an approach".[4] Berlin government advisors recommend that Paris adapt itself to its inferior role: "[T]he French elite" has only the opportunity of being in attendance, as an observer to "the EU integration process debate that has been determined by others".[5]
Media Campaign
In Berlin it is seen as uncertainty, how British opposition forces can be brought to agree to the draft constitution and the intended modifications. Government advisors in the German capital consider it conceivable, in principle, that a massive PR campaign could produce successful results. German EU strategists question whether the British proponents of the constitution have "the necessary media outlets at their disposal, to successfully broadcast their message".[6] In an itemization compiled by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), the "EU friendly" newspapers (according to SWP: Financial Times, Independent, Guardian and Mirror) have a total circulation of approximately 2.75 million and are therefore clearly inferior to the "rather EU skeptical" journals (according to SWP: Times, Telegraph, Express, Mail and Sun) with a total circulation of approximately 8.2 million. Berlin sees a positive balance in the programs of the BBC. The German researchers also calculate the potential of the British internet users to be "EU friendly".
Reorientation
Whereas the SWP still threatens the non-ratifying states with suspension from the EU, the Bertelsmann Foundation considers a "strategic re-orientation" of EU policy. The uncertainties surrounding the draft constitution was on the agenda of a meeting of the "Europe Strategy Group" held in Berlin, at the end of April, to which this German corporation foundation had invited leading EU policy personnel from all major EU states. The former EU Commissioner, Mario Monti, debated with the Special Advisor of the President of the European Commission, Loukas Tsoulakis, on the possibilities for the consolidation of EU responsibilities ("future of integration"), aspired to by Berlin.[7] Joseph Fischer (former German Foreign Minister), Denis MacShane (former British European Minister), Bernard Spitz (former advisor to the French Prime Minister) were among the other speakers, as well as, several active politicians at the determinant policy-making level (General Director of the EU General Secretariat, Klaus Gretschmann, the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the EU Parliament, Elmar Brok, Undersecretary of State in Berlin's Interior Ministry, August Hanning).
Bridging
As Werner Weidenfeld (Bertelsmann Foundation) judged after the conference, "only through an explicitly closer coordination of the domestic and foreign policy dimension" will it be possible to further consolidate the EU. This is referring to a constitutional configuration that uses a threat scenario ("grand project"), to get the European public opinion to accept the EU expansion objectives. Appropriate components with community-building attractiveness could focus on references to "energy, terror, migration", was suggested at the Bertelsmann Foundation after the conclusion of the conference. According to this view, the growing demand on material resources will render acceptable the basic belligerence of the current draft constitution. The labels "terror" and "migration" used to describe the consequences of neo-liberal EU policy, are deemed as suitable for frightening the European electorate. The avowed goal is to furnish a platform for promoting a common identity, to bridge the social contradictions, domestically and the contradictions between EU member states.
Friendly Advice
That the contradictions are serious, can be seen by recent threats directed at the new Italian government. Even before the social-democratic/neo-liberal alliance, headed by the former EU Commission President, Romano Prodi was officially inaugurated in office, the Financial Times published the advice, that Rome will have to leave the Euro-zone, if it does not economically discipline itself.[8] The author of this friendly advice is the German economics journalist, Wolfgang Muenchau.
[1] see also Zusammenbruch, Am Boden, Aussitzen and Expelled from Class
[2] Österreich will EU-Verfassung retten; Kurier 26.04.2006
[3] Deutschland und Finnland stellen sich hinter EU-Verfassung; AP 12.04.2006
[4] Merkel will Initiative für EU-Verfassung starten; Die Welt 18.04.2006
[5], [6] Die Ratifikationsverfahren zum EU-Verfassungsvertrag. Wege aus der Krise II; Diskussionspapier der Forschungsgruppe EU-Integration der Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, April 2006
[7] Strategiegruppe Europa diskutiert zentrale Zukunftsfragen des Kontinents. Teilnehmer aus 14 Ländern erörtern strategische Neuorientierung; Pressemitteilung der Bertelsmann-Stiftung 28.04.2006
[8] "Voto: l'Italia rischia l'uscita dall'euro"; Corriere della Sera 18.04.2006
