Regulatory Power in the Arc of Crisis

"Assuming Leadership"

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier's recent initiatives to halt the battle for Aleppo must be seen in the context of Berlin's efforts to systematically enhance its influence in the Middle East. Over the past few months, the German government has repeatedly confirmed its intentions to expand its global political activities. As it is proclaimed in the Bundeswehr's new "White Paper," Germany is "prepared to become involved early, resolutely and substantially as a driving force in the international debate, to assume leadership," as well as "actively help shape the global order."[1] In his article in the US "Foreign Affairs" magazine's June edition, Steinmeier ascribed a "global role" to Germany declaring it a "central player" in world politics.[2] In a joint strategy paper, Steinmeier and his French counterpart Jean-Marc Ayrault, declared that the EU is not only pursuing a role as an actor within its "direct neighborhood," but also on "a global scale."[3] To live up to its openly declared claim to German-European leadership, Berlin will have to succeed in assuming the role of a leading regulatory power in the crises and wars around Europe - often referred to as the "arc of crisis."[4] This is also the intention behind the so-called Minsk format in the Ukraine conflict, of which the USA is not a party. The German government is trying to enhance its role in the Libyan war through leading positions in the UN framework, but is far from achieving major influence.

Steinmeier's Diplomatic Offensive

The same applies to the war in Syria. It is generally believed that the USA and Russia hold the keys to its resolution. With an initiative for humanitarian aid for Aleppo's population, Foreign Minister Steinmeier is seeking diplomatically to take the offensive. Berlin is in negotiations with Washington, Moscow and the UN on how to obtain "humanitarian access" to this embattled northern Syrian city, the German Foreign Ministry explained on Sunday.[5] If necessary, "the option of airdrops, particularly of medical products" should be a consideration. This type of operation has been already tested in the Syrian city of Deir ez-Zor. During his talks on Monday in Yekaterinburg, with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, Steinmeier again called for a ceasefire in Aleppo - to no avail. Steinmeier subsequently declared that it is a "positive sign" that "the USA and Russia are negotiating humanitarian Actions for Aleppo" [6] - an admission that Germany is far from winning significant influence in the Syrian war. Previously, he had proposed close cooperation with Moscow to Lavrov, once an end to the war in Syria is achieved. "When the time comes to reconstruct Syria, particularly Germany and Russia should work hand in hand."[7] This attempt to lure Russian concessions during the battle for Aleppo did not work, at least, not for the time being.

Useful Jihadis

Once again, the battle for Aleppo shows how NATO countries and their closest Middle East allies are reinforcing the Jihadis for geopolitical reasons. In late July, it seemed as if, with the encirclement of Aleppo's eastern districts, the Syrian government troops and their allied Iranian and Lebanese militias would possibly be able to win a decisive military victory. Taking the city would have particularly been a major setback for the jihadi militias holed up in Aleppo, forcing them into rural areas of Northern Syria, signifying a serious strategic setback. In early August, several militias, including the al Qaeda branch, Jabhat al Nusra - renamed Jabhat Fath al-Sham - launched a counteroffensive with the objective of breaking out of the encirclement. "But the effectiveness of the rebels' counteroffensive depends on the level of support their backers are willing to supply," explained the Middle East expert, Nashashibi.[8] A bit later, observers noted that, as could be seen in numerous online videos, the partial success of the jihadis' attack was "rendered possible by their new weapons, particularly Grad rocket launchers and anti-tank missiles,"[9] which could not have been delivered other than via NATO partner, Turkey. As Nashashibi also explains, the Jabhat Fath al-Sham militia's official split from al Qaeda - though this had not meant a change of course - facilitated its Saudi backers' reinforcing support for the organization. Recently problems arose, because Saudi Arabia is engaged in armed conflict with al Qaeda in Yemen.[10] Jabhat Fath al-Sham's new strength is also an indication that Saudi deliveries now flowing to the jihadis is more voluminous. Berlin, as has repeatedly been the case throughout the Syrian war (german-foreign-policy.com reported [11]) has raised no objections. The jihadis' arms build up, which, because of terrorist attacks is so strongly fought by Europe and North America, weakens Assad, the adversary, when carried out in Syria.

Corporal Punishment and Executions

Recently, a report by Amnesty International exposed the consequences this cooperation with the Jihadis - delivered via NATO partner, Turkey, and close allies, such as Saudi Arabia - has had. The human rights organization's report documents the methods Jabhat al Nusra/Jabhat Fath al-Sham and also other militias - armed by countries such as the USA, Great Britain, or France - are using to secure their power. The militias have established Supreme Judicial Councils in the districts of Aleppo and the adjacent rural areas under their control. According to the report, these councils pass judgment in accordance with a particularly harsh interpretation of Shari'a Law. Corporal punishment such as stoning, amputation and flogging are permitted, however, for the time being, not being widely imposed, given the war situation in Syria and to avoid unnecessary unrest among the populations.[12] According to the report, homosexuals and women accused of adultery have been executed. One woman's execution was documented on video. The Assistant Director of the Supreme Judicial Council confirmed to Amnesty International: "Death sentences are carried out in the detention centre according to Shari’a principles." According to Amnesty International, the same applies in areas under the rule of Jabhat Fath al-Sham and Ahrar al-Sham in the Idleb governate.

Torture and Murder

The militia imposes its rule using the most brutal measures also in other areas. Members of the Kurdish minority are regularly abducted, held in illegal detention centers, and threatened. Approximately 800 civilians were killed during the Fatah Halab militia alliance's indiscriminate shelling of Aleppo's majority Kurdish district Sheikh Maqsoud, between February and April 2016. Lawyers and journalists, critical of the ruling militias, are regularly abducted. According to Amnesty International, 367 journalists and media activists were abducted by armed groups in Aleppo and Idleb governorates between early 2012 and June 2016. Amnesty International, however, fears that the true scale of abductions may be higher than the number of cases reported to local monitors and Amnesty International due to fear of reprisals against victims and their families. Various militias commit torture. “I heard and read about the government security forces’ torture techniques," a torture victim told Amnesty International. "I thought I would be safe from that now that I am living in an opposition-held area. I was wrong. I was subjected to the same torture techniques but at the hands of Jabhat al-Nusra.”[13] Protests against the militia's rule are also repressed with brute force. The militia's opponents must expect to be killed as actual or alleged spies, or as actual or alleged partisans of the Assad government. This has been confirmed by the Jabhat al Shamiya militia, which, according to Amnesty International, has been supported by NATO countries and their allies. These allegations have also been raised against other militias, supplied weapons either by - or with the consent of - NATO countries. For Berlin, this is merely of secondary importance. After all, the militias are the most reliable combatants against the Assad government and, therefore, are of decisive strategic value.

[1] See Deutschlands globaler Horizont (I).
[2] See Auf Weltmachtniveau.
[3] See The European War Union.
[4] See The Wars of the Near Future (I).
[5] Außenminister Steinmeier zur Lage in Syrien. www.auswaertiges-amt.de 14.08.2016.
[6] Lawrow weist Steinmeier ab. www.handelsblatt.com 15.08.2016.
[7] Rede von Außenminister Frank-Walter Steinmeier an der Ural Federal University Jekaterinburg. 15.08.2016.
[8] Syria war: Rebels vow to intensify offensive in Aleppo. www.aljazeera.com 03.08.2016.
[9] Inga Rogg: Wie es zum Erfolg der Rebellen in Aleppo kam. www.nzz.ch 14.08.2016.
[10] Sharif Nashashibi: The ramifications of the Nusra's split from al-Qaeda. www.aljazeera.com 07.08.2016.
[11] See Vom Nutzen des Jihad (I), In Alliance with Al Qaeda and Das Al Qaida-Emirat.
[12], [13] Amnesty International: "Torture was my punishment". Abductions, torture and summary killings under armed group rule in Aleppo and Idleb, Syria. London, July 2016.