The Brexit Summit Show

Decisions without Consequences

Berlin assesses the results of the Brussels summit quite positively. The decisions - which were far from conceding the special rights London was demanding - will be largely without consequences, or will facilitate Germany in reaching its objectives. On Cameron's insistence, the summit explicitly reaffirmed the objective of enhancing the EU economy's competiveness. As one journal noted in the run-up to the meeting, Brussels has set this objective "so many times, that one more time would not make a difference."[1] One could also read that the assurance that the UK - which is not a member of the Euro zone - would not suffer negative consequences from decisions taken by the Euro-zone countries is "a confirmation of the way the Euro crisis has been handled." The official concession that the UK does not have to strive for "deepening the Union" - the long-term objective stipulated in European treaties - is but a reaffirmation of the status quo. But, it is not clear, whether this reaffirmation will meet the stipulation of jurisprudence. After all, its wording would be in violation of the legal precedence set by European treaties.

Reduced Child Benefits

To the extent that the summit decisions were not completely without consequences - they do restrict EU foreigners' access to social services - they were explicitly supported by the German government and were even expanded. As was attentively noted in German media, EU Council President, Donald Tusk, sought to transform the restrictions demanded by London into a "de facto 'Lex Cameron'," thereby insuring that they would remain limited to Great Britain. However, this effort was blocked by Chancellor Angela Merkel, because, according to a European Court ruling (Summer 2012), it is not allowed to refuse the entitled child support benefits to the numerous, particularly Eastern and Southeastern European, immigrants, who are working, and paying taxes and social security in Germany. This even applies, if their living standards are insufficient to bring their families to Germany. For years, Berlin has been interested in, at least, adjusting the child support benefits to correspond to the amount of child support allocated in the child's place of residence. Because child support in Eastern and Southeastern Europe is less, the German government had hoped to save up to 200 million Euros annually.[2] A reduction in child support payments is, for obvious reasons, very unpopular among the Eastern and Southeastern European EU member countries, and would require an amendment of EU laws. Britain's threat of leaving the EU has made it possible for Berlin to put through such an amendment - thanks to Prime Minister David Cameron having gone so far out on a limb with this unpopular demand - and do so without tarnishing Berlin's image.

Withhold Wage Subsidies

Germany will not be able to apply the possibility of the state withholding wage subsidies from foreign citizens of other EU member countries, which was put through by Cameron. In Brussels, the option of withholding the payments of immigrants' wage subsidies for up to seven years was accorded only to those EU countries that, immediately following EU expansion, had granted full freedom of movement to the citizens of the new EU member states.[3] Unlike Great Britain, for seven years, Germany has rigorously restricted free circulation, thereby saving, in advance, the government wage subsidies, the United Kingdom has been paying since 2004. According to the Brussels summit agreements, the United Kingdom may now also withhold payments for seven years. However, London must first obtain authorization from the EU Commission and the European Council for its measures, which is why the ultimate application is considered, at least, uncertain. At the national level, Berlin is now even working on withholding welfare payments from unemployed EU foreigners.[4] It has already refused to grant them "Hartz IV" benefits, which was certified by the court last year.[5]

Surplus of 40 Billion

Though Berlin is primarily satisfied with the decisions taken in Brussels, the worry of Britain's eventual exit from the EU has not been banned, also for military reasons. With France, the United Kingdom is currently the only other really significant military power in the EU, as was confirmed by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) - in concurrence with the unanimous view of international military experts.[6] Therefore, Berlin's policy strategists find it absolutely essential that the British Armed Forces be harnessed into a future EU Army.[7] However, there are also alliance policy considerations: The "Brexit" gave the crisis-ridden EU's centrifugal forces a considerable boost.[8] It is particularly important that the export-dependent German economy is exceptionally profiting from Britain's EU membership. Whereas, over the past few years, Germany's share of exports to the Euro zone has been in a steady decline, the proportion of exports to the UK has significantly grown - in 2015, according to Germany's Federal Statistical Office, by approx. 14 percent.[9] The United Kingdom has become Germany's third leading trading partner after the United States and France. In 2014, German companies had accumulated a foreign trade surplus of over 40 billion Euros with the UK. Therefore, after the United States, the UK is contributing more than any other country to Germany's accumulation of prosperity.

The Summit Choreography

Driven by Germany's strong interest in Great Britain remaining an EU member, Berlin found it very important to stage-manage the Brussels Brexit summit. The press has described the basic idea in great detail. In the run-up to the summit, it was often repeated that Prime Minister David Cameron could only successfully promote remaining in the EU, if he can sell the largely ineffectual summit decisions to the British constituency as his great success. It is important that the "summit choreography" give Cameron "the stage, he needs, to be able to plausibly reassure his constituents that he fought like a lion, and was ultimately victorious."[10] "For this, a classical summit stage management is necessary:" with "all-night negotiations, and crisis meetings just before a breakdown, to then - at the crack of dawn - achieve a breakthrough, at the last minute - with Cameron standing there as the glorious winner, who can declare his triumph to his constituents and prove his critics wrong."[11] Similarities to how the summit actually proceeded are unmistakable. According to Berlin, Prime Minister Cameron must now make sure that the majority of the British constituents actually vote in favor of remaining in the EU in the referendum, June 23. The ball is now in the court of London's pro-EU circles.

[1] Werner Mussler: Alle wollen Camerons Erfolg. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 16.02.2016.
[2] 1 Milliarde Euro Kindergeld für Ausländer. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 12.05.2014.
[3] Pressekonferenz von Bundeskanzlerin Merkel am 19. Februar zum Abschluss des Europäischen Rats in Brüssel.
[4] Merkel will Sozialleistungen für EU-Ausländer beschränken. www.zeit.de 07.01.2016.
[5] Arbeitslose EU-Ausländer können meist Sozialhilfe verlangen. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 04.12.2015.
[6] Mark Leonard: The British problem and what it means for Europe. European Council on Foreign Relations Policy Brief, March 2015. See Die Brexit-Debatte.
[7] See German Europe.
[8] See Die Quittung.
[9] Anja Ettel: Warum der Exportrekord kein Grund zum Feiern ist. www.welt.de 09.02.2016.
[10] Die ganze Bühne für Cameron. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 18.02.2016.
[11] Werner Mussler: Alle wollen Camerons Erfolg. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 16.02.2016.