War Options

Chokepoints

As chancellery minister de Maizière announced at a BND symposium, German espionage will reinforce its commitment to the monitoring of the world-wide infrastructure for the transport of energy resources. The Federal Intelligence Service is directly subordinated to de Maizière. Above all, the chancellery minister attaches great significance to the "observation and analysis of the so-called Chokepoints"; this refers to straits, through which oil tankers must sail.[1] De Maizière explicitly named the entrance to the Persian Gulf ("Straits of Hormuz"), through which nearly 30 per cent of the world's oil transports pass, as well as the straits of Malacca in Southeast Asia. More than three quarters of the Chinese and Japanese oil imports are transported through the Straits of Malacca. The "domestic oil infrastructure" is also endangered: "For the intelligence services this results in wide-ranging fields of operation in prevention and intelligence." This also includes "information from enterprises in the energy sector".

Particularly Concerned

According to de Maizière, the security of the global transportation infrastructure becomes more significant, since, with increasing international competition, German dependence on imports of oil and natural gas will increase. For German oil needs, says de Maizière, particularly the Middle East is "for a long time to come, indispensable". Iran and Saudi Arabia are the most important oil production states in this area, that are organized within the OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries). As the chancellery minister assumes, Germany and the EU will "be particularly affected", by the expected rise in OPEC power, since "the USA and China have already secured a large part of the present increase in oil production from the non-OPEC states for themselves - particularly in Sub-Sahara Africa and in Central Asia".[2] According to de Maizière, extensive oil and gas deposits "right at Europe's front door" are, at present, being bought up by their global competitors, for example in Libya and Norway (by the USA) and also soon, possibly, in northwest Siberia (by the People's Republic of China). The chancellery minister's analysis draws fault lines for future alliances and war scenarios.

Comprehensive Strategy

The question of resources is currently the focus of numerous government initiatives at the national and international level, aimed at securing German energy supply for the coming decades. With a series of "energy summits", which began last April, which convened at the negotiation table top representatives of both the German government and business associations, Berlin is seeking to establish a "comprehensive energy-policy strategy", that is to be announced in the second half of 2007.[3] By then the results of the G8 - Summit meeting can be incorporated. The summit, under German presidency, will take place next summer in the German coastal city, Heiligendamm and will focus its main emphasis on questions of energy efficiency and security of resources. In preparation of the G8-Summit, a few days ago, the Foreign Ministry held a conference. Together with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (CDU) and the EastWest Institute in New York, the conference (topic: "Global Resources Security") tested international acceptability of Germany-oriented energy concepts. In Berlin, several ministries, various blue-ribbon working groups and numerous government advisors are dealing with this theme, extending it to include the supply of other industrial raw materials for Germany. Additionally a "Comprehensive Raw Materials Economic Strategy" is to be announced in March 2007.[4]

No Holds Barred

An "Energy Plan of Action" will be incorporated into the government's "Comprehensive Energy-Policy Strategy", which awaits adoption at the EU summit, under German council presidency, in the spring of 2007. Here "answers" to the "growing world-wide (...) energy demands" as well as to "the increasing instability in particular regions of the world are to be given", demands Joachim Wuermeling, Undersecretary of State, in charge of energy, at the Ministry for Economic Affairs. With the term "instability," Wuermeling is referring to wars and civil wars, resulting from rivalry between foreign interests in numerous resources-rich states (in the Middle East, Sudan, the Congo etc.).[5] In "defense of European energy interests in the world," Brussels must, in the future, "speak with a single voice", admonishes Berlin's undersecretary of state. According to Wuermeling, the EU needs a "constant formation" and must be able to fight "with no holds barred".[6] This circumlocution announces a further focusing of German energy policy on the European core states - with Germany as the leading nation.[7]

Critical raw materials

Following the announcement, that the German secret service is to focus more on the monitoring of the global energy infrastructure, more announcements are expected, in the coming weeks, in reference to military activities assigned to questions of German energy supply. Germany has "an elementary interest" in "a system of open world trade and free transportation routes", according to the draft of a Bundeswehr "White Book", in which the German energy policy is described as the most distinguished duty of national defense. The military authors recommend in the future that this "is to be applied, in particular to the regions, in which critical raw materials and energy resources are acquired".[8] The "White Book" text and parallel overt and covert foreign policy activities, confirm the cross-the-board determination to keep war options, at all times, open to insure German energy supplies.

[1], [2] "Unsere Energieversorgung ist keineswegs gesichert"; Rede des Kanzleramtsministers Thomas de Maizière bei einem Symposium des Bundesnachrichtendienstes (BND), 12.10.2006
[3] see also Energie für Deutschland (I)
[4] see also Krieg um Rohstoffe
[5] Noch 100 Tage: Das BMWi vor der deutschen Ratspräsidentschaft. Rede von Staatssekretär Dr. Joachim Wuermeling anlässlich der Vortragsreihe "EU-Countdown: In 100 Tagen zur EU-Ratspräsidentschaft"; Berlin 21.09.2006
[6] Wuermeling: Im globalen Kampf um Energiequellen muss EU härtere Bandagen anlegen; Pressemitteilung des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie 22.09.2006
[7] see also Die Großen Drei
[8] Armee soll Ölversorgung sichern; Handelsblatt 17.05.2006