"Probable Escalation"

German and international political advisors unanimously anticipate a renewed flare-up of combat between the country's former civil war adversaries during and after the Congolese presidential runoffs. At least 23 persons were killed already in August, in combat in the Congolese capital. EU troops including units of the Bundeswehr had intervened.[1] "Following the run-offs, renewed violent confrontation between the loser and the winner can be considered probable," judges Berlin's German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).[2] The German Institute of Global and Area Studies (IAK), in Hamburg, also sees "an escalation after the second round" as "probable."[3] In its latest "Africa Briefing" The International Crisis Group (ICG) draws the same conclusion.[4] The organization anticipates unrest around November 19, at the latest. This is when the final results of the presidential elections will be made known.

Unrest

According to the ICG analysis, the expected unrest could entangle the European units, stationed in Central Africa, in ambiguous combat situations between Congolese regular troops, heavily armed private militias and protesting civilians. The organization reports that already during the disturbances in August, the official security forces of the Democratic Republic the Congo took sides with various adversaries. With his 5,000 to 6,000 presidential guard troops stationed in Kinshasa, President Joseph Kabila has under his command the stronger private military force. But Vice-President Jean Pierre Bemba has been increasingly successful in fomenting street protests. Already on September 18, EU troops had a confrontation with violence-prone youth gangs, after Bembas private television stations had been destroyed by fire. It is said, that his faction is preparing for mass upheaval in Kinshasa, if he is defeated at the polls.[5] Which side the western intervention forces will take, will depend, in the long run, on the assertiveness of the Congolese rivals and on their respective assurances concerning access to resources.

Inevitable

Renewed combat is also anticipated in the east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. There the militia leader, Laurent Nkunda, wanted for war crimes by the UN, is systematically expanding his influence. Nkunda, a long-standing supporter of the Rwandan president, has been increasing his influence particularly in the province North Kivu, which borders on the former German colony, Rwanda. In the German Press one reads that "Northern Kivu is like a ripe fruit, waiting to fall into the hands of the new rebels."[6] Nkunda, in the meantime, is also recruiting in the Ituri Province, bordering to the north. In the past week, fourteen people were killed there, in ongoing military combat. From his troops is heard that "power in Kinshasa" is the objective. The elections have "failed," the militia leader recently said, in an exclusive interview with a German daily "the Crash is inevitable."[7]

War Financiers

Over the past few years, Nkunda, a guarantor of Rwandan influence in the Eastern Congo, could use the compound of a German-controlled enterprise, as an area of retreat and a base of operations.[8] This area is the premises of the Somikivu Company, that, on an unclarified legal basis, is working an Eastern Congolese mine and is under a trust control contract with the German Government. (german-foreign-policy.com has reported in detail [9]). Somikivu and the former managing director of the company, Karl-Heinz Albers, have been accused of having financed, for years, pro-Rwandan rebel militias, in the Eastern Congo, and to have, therefore, prolonged Africa's bloodiest conflict. This scandal, which receives little attention in Germany, has, in the meantime, been investigated by a committee of the British parliament and has caused controversy in Austria, where the Treibacher Corp., an enterprise owned by the German billionaire, August von Finck, has brought a lawsuit against anyone pointing to business contacts between representatives of his firm and Karl-Heinz Albers. The parliamentarians in Vienna are demanding, in the meantime, that the Austrian National Council investigate these serious accusations made against Treibacher and the German billionaire, Finck.[10]

Intra-European competition

While the situation in the Congo worsens, Berlin is using the stationing of its German paratroopers in nearby Gabon, to weaken the, as yet, unquestioned French hegemony in this Central African oil producing nation. The country's "orientation toward France" makes profitable activity of German companies more difficult. According to the Foreign Ministry, Paris secures its interests in its former colony "through old-established French enterprises (...), flanked by French advisors in the administration." Their quantity is being "continuously reduced," observed the foreign ministry.[11] The Bundeswehr is reporting a precautious reorientation toward Germany. According to the Bundeswehr, Gabon "wishes" a cooperation between both countries' army medical services and is considering a cooperation "for the duration of contingency and, if necessary, beyond."[12] This gives the impression that Berlin has succeeded in penetrating an exclusive sphere of influence of its competitors in Paris. Up to now, the security policy of the government in Libreville has been determined "within the framework of a defense agreement through cooperation with France," reports the Foreign Ministry.[13]

Please read also: War Resources (I), Kriegsressourcen (II), War Resources (III), Begrüßt und fortgeschrieben, They are ready, Interview mit Dr. Helmut Strizek, The Sun is Red Over the Congo, We Will Burn Some..., Ein doppeltes Spiel, Tödliche Gewalt: Exzessiv, Ergänzungsraum, Negerjagd, Evakuiert and Positive Stimmung

[1] see also Evakuiert
[2] DR Kongo: Etappensieg; SWP-Aktuell 43, September 2006
[3] Wahlen im Kongo: Das Ende einer langen Transition?; GIGA Focus Afrika Nr. 9/2006
[4], [5] International Crisis Group: Africa Briefing No. 42, Nairobi/Brussels 02.10.2006
[6], [7] Der Rebell auf dem Sprung; tageszeitung 23.09.2006
[8] see also They are ready and We Will Burn Some...
[9] see also War Resources (I), Kriegsressourcen (II) and War Resources (III)
[10] Großkonzern klagt Werkstatt-Aktivisten!; www.werkstatt.or.at
[11] Gabun; Länder- und Reiseinformationen des Auswärtigen Amts
[12] Deutsche Soldaten zu Gast im Militärkrankenhaus in Gabun; Bundeswehr-Pressestelle Gabun 04.09.2006
[13] Gabun; Länder- und Reiseinformationen des Auswärtigen Amts