Potential for War
BERLIN/PARIS/BEIJING (Own report) The German chancellor wishes to secure his country's ascent in the UN by promising aid to the People's Republic of China. France supports him in the hopes for Beijing's consideration in return. Paris needs China's agreement in order to bring the fusion reactor ,,Iter"into France (total cost is 10 billion Euro). Berlin depends on China for its ascent in the UN Security Council. The pressure group politics by the dominant European powers are in conflict with the objectives of the US strategy which considers Beijing as a future adversary and intends to prepare for a nuclear war. The transatlantic conflict has been leading to serious conflicts within Germany's party camps and an increase of the existing tension in the foreign office.
In agreement with the EU resolution of December 2004, Chancellor Schröder insisted several weeks ago that the weapons embargo against the People's Republic of China had become obsolete and should be lifted this year. 1)Due to the intense reaction within Germany and abroad, the French president has intervened in the debate and supports Schröder's position after a telephone discussion with the Chinese chief of state. 2)However, this intervention meets with general opposition due to China's violation of ,,human rights"as well as its military build-up against the Chinese province of Taiwan that make it undeserving of European weapons shipments.
Media effective
In spite of the alleged reasons for this impediment, several European states, among them Italy, have supplied weapons to China for several years. The volume is small (in 2004 it amounted to approximately 413 million Euro) but it doubled within a year. 3)Thus the EU finally catches up in the armaments sector with its civilian exports: With annual exports valued at approximately 126 billion Euro, the European Union is China's second most important trade partner. China's domestic events and politics have rarely influenced developing trade relations and, in fact, have been used by German companies for large scale projects of expansion. Thus it is surprising why Berlin, as well as Paris, would act on the EU resolution, already in force for several months, about lifting the weapons embargo.
Upgrade
Both Germany and France have to fear Beijing's disapproval of decisions concerning large-scale projects. The People's Republic of China, a full member of the UN Security Council with the veto power, can prevent the entry of Berlin's representative into the highest UN body. After having suggested the admission of Japan into the UN Security Council, the US hopes for an appropriate vote. This offer had been poisoned due to prior awareness of the decisive protest of the People's Republic of China. 4)Berlin will be indirectly affected by the certain Chinese veto against Japan because the German foreign office requested its UN aspirations in concert with Japan. The only way Berlin can avoid a Chinese refusal is to distance itself from Tokyo and publicly upgrade Beijing, namely through acting on the EU resolution concerning the lifting of the arms embargo.
Expiration of a Term
In addition, Paris hopes that Beijing will reward the media campaign for lifting the embargo. France is applying for the location of the international fusion reactor, ,,Iter,"which could be established in the south of France (near Cadarache) instead of in Japan which, because of the enormous investment of about 10 billion Euro, wants to have the ,,Iter"as well. The states involved with the reactor project will choose the applicants. Those are besides the EU (which endorses France), the USA, Russia, South Korea and China. The People's Republic has left its final decision open but must vote before the end of June since the participants want an agreement at that point. The term which Berlin had determined for its UN campaign expires in June as well. 5)
World War IV
German-French pressure politics collide with the USA's strategic determination to isolate China militarily. Thus the US analyst, John Mearsheimer (University of Chicago) suggests that Washington and Beijing have entered a martial competition which has a ,,considerable potential for war." 6)CIA sources speak of ,,World War IV"which will be fought with nuclear arms and must be won against the People's Republic of China as well. 7)
Devastating
The collision course taken by the European core powers conflicts with US strategies and has amplified the continual tension in the foreign office. Together with the conservative faction of the house, the political leadership (Coalition 90/the Greens) has been urging following of the US-China policy, while the social democratic representatives insist on retention of the national interest policy. The CDU-opposition fear ,,devastating consequences." 8)
1) ,,Freiheit ist mehr als nur Gewerbefreiheit"; Die Zeit 31.03.2005
2) President Hu calls for early lift of EU arms embargo; Xinhuanet 01.04.2005
3) Das Waffenembargo ist schon lange ausgehöhlt; Wiesbadener Kurier 03.04.2005
4) see also Elite of Nations
5) Der Endspurt beginnt; Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 21.03.2005
6) Joseph S. Nye: China rising; The San Diego Union Tribune 02.03.2005
7) Norman Podhoretz: World War IV: How It Started, What It Means, and Why We Have to Win; www.commentarymagazine.com/podhoretz.htm September 2004
8) ,,Der Bundeskanzler wird jeden Respekt in China verlieren". Interview mit Wolfgang Schäuble; Die Welt 02.04.2005
