A Difficult Ally (II)

Berlin is calling on Washington to take joint action against Beijing by taking German interests into account.

BERLIN/WASHINGTON (Own report) - Berlin is calling on the incoming administration in Washington to take carefully concerted action against Beijing by taking Germany's particular interests into account. "Americans and Europeans" have many common demands on the People's Republic of China, particularly those concerning trade and investments in China, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas declared, and side by side, they must raise them now. A "Transatlantic Working Group" could coordinate a transatlantic policy toward China, which should, for example, include the US vice president, relevant EU representatives and foreign, defense and other ministers of EU member states, according to a proposal drawn up under the co-authorship of German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger. High significance is attached to the competition for global technological leadership. At the same time, Berlin is rejecting some of the US aggressions, including the plans to decouple China from the West: "We do not support every stance and every advance by the government in Washington," the German Defense Minister declared.

The Basis of National Power

Berlin's plans for a concerted transatlantic policy regarding China attach high importance to the competition for global technological leadership. "Technological innovation fuels economic growth and has long been the foundation of national power and global influence," according to a strategy paper, published by a "Transatlantic Task Force" co-chaired by Wolfgang Ischinger, head of the Munich Security Conference. The "Task Force" had been established last December by the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) together with the "Bundeskanzler-Helmut-Schmidt Foundation" (BKHS). (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[1]). China is already the world’s top producer, exporter, and user of wind turbines, solar panels, and batteries. It also accounts for 60 percent of global electric-vehicle sales and is leading in 5G - its technology and the ease of domestic rollout.[2] Its huge domestic market of 1.4 billion people - of whom at least 400 million can be considered middle class with high purchasing power - offers advantages not only for the sale of high-tech-products, but also for the speedy development of artificial intelligence (AI), requiring tremendous amounts of data. In the long run, neither the USA nor the EU would individually be able to prevail in competition with the People's Republic for technological leadership.

"Transatlantic Sovereignty"

The "Transatlantic Task Force" is thus proposing close transatlantic cooperation in advancing the development of state-of-the-art technologies. The EU and the United States have long been "technological rivals" as well as "partners," according to the strategy paper. In the 1960s and 1970s, West European countries worried about U.S. dominance of nascent computer technologies and today decry the rise of the dominant US internet monopolies. One cannot deny that China's spending on research and development is not only catching up but is on track to outpace not only the EU, but the United States as well within this decade. Whereas today, the EU is usually striving for "European sovereignty," the only antidote to the People's Republic's technological leadership would be "transatlantic technological sovereignty" based on close cooperation between the USA and the EU - not only in research, but in the development of AI and 5G as well.[3] The idea is certainly appealing. According to the former German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel, for example, the "lack of an adequate alternative to Huawei," is "incomprehensible."[4] However, the arsenal proposed by the Atlantic Task Force not only includes closer cooperation but also restrictive measures such as limitations on exports to China.

"With a Single Voice"

Beyond cooperation in the further development of modern technology, politicians in Berlin are seeking a joint approach in the attempt to force the People's Republic of China to open up further to western interests. Beijing has long since begun, for example, to loosen the general conditions for foreign investors; however, at a tempo that fits its own development. At the end of October, Foreign Minister Heiko Maas stated in a signed article appearing in the German daily "Die Welt" that "Americans and Europeans" have a shared interest in "fair trade, unrestricted maritime routes, and the security of our data and intellectual property."[5] If the aim is to persuade China to abide by western standards, then the US can also benefit from the EU’s economic influence in the People's Republic, "and if we can speak with a single voice within the World Trade Organization, instead of hitting each other with tariffs, we will be able to set new standards," predicts Maas. Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer recently announced that "concern" is shared over certain Chinese economic activities with other western nations, "including the United States." For example, "currency manipulation," is criticized along with an "aggressive appropriation of intellectual property," "unequal ... investment conditions" and a "state-subsidized distortion of competition."[6] Together, western demands can be imposed on China easier.

"Not Blind Allegiance"

Of course, Berlin is rejecting some of Washington's aggressions against Beijing, as not being in its interests. This applies particularly to plans for the economic "decoupling" of China from the West, which the German government seeks to avoid, to salvage Germany's business with China.[7] Berlin's Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) warns that - at least - a "partial decoupling from the high-tech sectors" will probably "continued to be pursued," regardless of who wins the U.S. presidential elections. "The anti-China consensus" has "become further entrenched ... on both sides of the political spectrum" in the USA - "within the political elites" and "in sectors of the US population."[8] And the USA "expects the EU and its member countries to adopt the American standpoint on this strategic approach toward China," and "will apply pressure accordingly also under the next administration." Berlin seeks to shield itself from this. "Partnership" does not equate "blind allegiance," warned Mass.[9] "We do not support every stance and advance by the government in Washington" in relationship to China, Defense Minister Kramp-Karrenbauer announced.[10] Ex Minister of Foreign Affairs, Gabriel makes a plea for "cooperation in creating an economic counterweight to China," however, without use of "cold war" language.[11]

Transatlantic Working Group with US Vice President

A joint approach is now discussion regarding China's influence on the African continent, as well as the new Silk Road. For years, Berlin has been attempting to strengthen its position in Africa - regularly without success.[12] Occasionally suggestions have been raised for joining forces with Beijing, to better gain a foothold.[13] Now, Gabriel is calling for "the conception of a transatlantic infrastructure initiative with Africa" - and, at the same time, for an initiative in "the Eurasian realm as a democratic, fair and transparent alternative to China's new 'Silk Road'."[14] The EU seeks to position itself against China in the key regions of the New Silk Road - but has yet to achieve an opening.[15] Similar proposals have come from the Transatlantic Task Force, which is calling for establishing a "Transatlantic Working Group" that would include the US vice president, relevant representatives of the EU and selected EU member states, as well as the respective foreign, defense, economic and finance ministers. It would use intelligence information to plan for China's "economic, political and strategic challenges" - as a basis for concerted, coordinated measures against Beijing.[16]

 

For more information concerning transatlantic relations in the run-up to US elections, see A Difficult Ally (I).

 

[1] See also A Difficult Ally (I).

[2] Together or Alone? Choices and Strategies for Transatlantic Relations for 2021 and Beyond. Washington, October 2020. See also The Race for 5G.

[3] Together or Alone? Choices and Strategies for Transatlantic Relations for 2021 and Beyond. Washington, October 2020.

[4] Emerson: Ex-US-Botschafter in Deutschland, Vorsitzender des American Council on Germany.

Sigmar Gabriel, John B. Emerson: Wir brauchen einander. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 21.10.2020.

[5] Heiko Maas: Es ist Zeit für einen transatlantischen Neuanfang. welt.de 25.10.2020.

[6] AKK: Rede zur Verleihung des Medienpreises. bmvg.de 23.10.2020.

[7] See also Business Rather than Decoupling.

[8] Jenseits der Wahlen. SWP-Aktuell Nr. 82. Berlin, Oktober 2020.

[9] Heiko Maas: Es ist Zeit für einen transatlantischen Neuanfang. welt.de 25.10.2020.

[10] AKK: Rede zur Verleihung des Medienpreises. bmvg.de 23.10.2020.

[11] Sigmar Gabriel, John B. Emerson: Wir brauchen einander. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 21.10.2020.

[12] See also Indefinitely Postponed.

[13] Für mehr Kooperation in der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit - Zentrum für nachhaltige Entwicklung in Peking eröffnet. bmz.de 11.05.2017.

[14] Sigmar Gabriel, John B. Emerson: Wir brauchen einander. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 21.10.2020.

[15] See also The Anti-Silk Road.

[16] Together or Alone? Choices and Strategies for Transatlantic Relations for 2021 and Beyond. Washington, October 2020.


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