Military Republic of Germany

“The most Powerful Army in Europe”

“Strengthening the Bundeswehr” has absolute priority in all the German government's activities. It is “number one on our agenda,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz confirmed in his government policy statement last Wednesday. The German government intends to “provide all financial resources” needed by the armed forces “to become the strongest conventional army in Europe.”[1] “Our friends and our partners are virtually demanding it,” Merz claimed. In addition, the government intends to transform Germany into “a powerhouse of growth that the world will look upon in admiration.” This is also necessary in terms of foreign policy, explained Merz: “Germany's formative power in the world stands and falls with our economic strength.” Berlin also intends to “take initiatives” aimed at ensuring that “Europe lives up to its claim and importance in the world.” “Today, Europe is looking at us, at Germany,” Merz continued: “Europe has expectations of us.” The Chancellor conceded that “the government’s decisions” – such as the clear prioritization of the military – will “shape the lives of our children and our grandchildren”. Indeed, they are likely to have a profound impact on the Federal Republic of Germany.

Germany in the “Leading Role”

Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul defined the scope and aim of the arms build-up on the sidelines of a meeting with his NATO counterparts in Antalya last Thursday. In reference to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's objective of making it mandatory for member states to set their military spending at five percent of their national Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Wadephul explained: “This has the German government’s full support.” Germany is “willing and able” to increase military spending to around two and a half times its current spending on the armed forces.[2] The funds should be divided up, with 3.5 percent being allocated directly to the Bundeswehr and 1.5 percent to military infrastructure. With a five percent GDP share, militarization is actually relegating the previously largest budget item for labor and social affairs, from which particularly pensions and social benefits are paid, to second place. At the current GDP level, €150 billion (rather than the current €52 bil.) would be allocated to the military budget and another €65 billion to military infrastructure.[3] Berlin is “ready to assume a leadership role in Europe, to be a role model and to call on others to follow us”, explained Wadephul in Antalya.[4]

The Way is Clear

The plan confirmed by Merz and Wadephul to upgrade the Bundeswehr to become the strongest conventional armed forces in Europe and take on the leadership role among the European NATO countries, could, financially, be a success. Until now, the armies of France and – beyond the EU – Great Britain, were considered more powerful than the Bundeswehr. However, it is highly doubtful that these two countries will be able to increase their military budgets comparably to Germany’s. Berlin can now take on any amount of debt to cover its arms buildup, due to a resolution to this effect passed by the Bundestag, whereas, this appears hardly possible particularly for France. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that French debts will account for 116.3 percent of its GDP in 2025 – an amount, which, if excessively increased, threatens to plunge that country into a new debt crisis similar to the euro crisis one and a half decades ago. Paris is therefore blocked from engaging in a debt-financed arms buildup à la Germany, and is likely to fall behind Berlin in its future procurement of war material.[5] The UK has a similar predicament with debts estimated at 103.9 percent (IMF) of its GDP. This would clear the way for Germany to become the strongest military power in Europe.

The Military-Industrial Complex

The unprecedented arms buildup announced last week by the German government could not only make Germany the strongest conventional military power in Europe. There is also the threat of a considerable shift in the internal balance of power in the German economy. Until now the automotive industry has by far been the largest and most powerful sector in the Federal Republic of Germany, followed by mechanical engineering and chemicals. According to a recent analysis by the Deutsche Bank Research, the automotive industry accounts for 5 % of the GDP, while the arms industry only for a mere 0.2% of the GDP.[6] However, the automotive industry is shrinking. The Deutsche Bank Research calculates its decline in production at 31 percent from 2011 to 2024, tabulating the capacity use of large Volkswagen plants at only 25% (Osnabrück) or 35% (Dresden), and Ford at 30% (Saarlouis). It proposes that the process of automotive plants being taken over by defense plants – a process that has long-since been in progress – be accelerated. This would speed up the procurement of new capacities and the conversion to assembly line production of war material. The weight and political influence of the arms industry would increase as the weight of the automotive industry decreases.

“Collective Martyrdom”

Moreover, Germany is facing a massive militarization of society. On the one hand, this will involve the commissioning of currently primarily civilian social sectors for future wartime tasks. For example, pressure is mounting on hospitals, not to improve the inadequate care of the population, but rather to prepare for possible warfare, with an expected approximate 1,000 injured soldiers daily – according to unofficial estimates. (German-foreign-policy.com reported.[7]) On the other hand, pressure is also mounting on the civilian population to individually take security measures to protect themselves in the case of an armed conflict. The population must ”become more resilient” as quickly as possible, is regularly admonished, for example, by stocking up on emergency supplies.[8] There are also Increasing, calls for readiness to sacrifice one’s own life. “All outstanding cultural achievements” depend on the ”willingness of individuals and groups to make sacrifices” according to the influential Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) recently. “The spirit of collective martyrdom” is “the cardinal resource of every military defense” and must therefore, be promoted.[9] According to a recent opinion poll, 50 percent of the population, in the meantime, favor making Germany “combat-ready,” with only 31 percent are opposed. However, currently only 29% are prepared to “take up arms to defend Germany,” as opposed to 54% being against.[10]

For more information: NATO’s Five-Percent Target.

[1] Regierungserklärung von Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz zur neuen Bundesregierung vor dem Deutschen Bundestag am 14. Mai 2025 in Berlin.

[2] Thomas Gutschker: Deutschland will die NATO anführen. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 16.05.2025.

[3] See NATO’s Five-Percent Target

[4] Thomas Gutschker: Deutschland will die NATO anführen. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 16.05.2025.

[5] See Verbündete Rivalen.

[6] Germany’s shrinking auto industry may be key to defence ramp up. dbresearch.com 31.03.2025. See also) Konversion rückwärts.

[7] See Zivilisten im Krieg (I).

[8] See Zivilisten im Krieg (II) and „Krieg geht alle an“.

[9] Hauke Friederichs: „Die Bevölkerung in Deutschland muss resilienter werden“. zeit.de 12.05.2025.

[10] Hermann Binkert: Wie die Deutschen ticken: Ja zur Kriegstauglichkeit, nein zum Kämpfen. theeuropean.de 18.05.2025.