Germany's Contribution to the Bomb

Efficiency Instead of Mass

With the modernization of their nuclear arsenals, the nine nuclear weapon-possessing states are currently preparing for future conflicts, as the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) confirmed in its analysis published Monday. According to SPIRI, the total number of nuclear warheads around the world, which, in the mid 1980s peaked at nearly 70.000 has decreased from 15 395 in early 2016 to 14 935 in early 2017 - particularly a result of the New START Treaty between the USA and Russia. This should not hide the fact that at the same time billions are being invested to develop and produce modern nuclear arms, SIPRI warns. The USA plans to spend $400 billion for its nuclear arms program over the period 2017-26. By some estimates, the USA will spend up to $1 trillion in the next three decades for this program. In any case, the total number of nuclear warheads worldwide should not be overestimated, SPIRI notes, because only 4,150 of them are currently operational,[1] while the rest is held in reserve, and some of them are considered dispensable by the two major nuclear powers.[2]

Lower the Threshold

Within the framework of the comprehensive US modernization program, the development of an upgraded version of the B61 nuclear bomb is particularly significant for Germany. Currently, there are several versions of the B61, of which some are compatible with long-range bombers and some, with shorter-range fighter jets. Washington has decided to develop a new nuclear bomb compatible with all aircraft. The new model, the B61-12, has already passed initial tests.[3] This new bomb will not only be adapted to state-of-the-art technique, but will have a much higher precision. According to the Federation of American Scientists, the B61-12 will have a circular error probability (CEP) of 30 meters plus, instead of the 100 meters plus of the current B61 versions. The B61-12 also generates less radioactive fallout, making it a more "useable" weapon.[4] Indeed, the illusion of more accuracy with significantly less radioactive fallout could lower the threshold for using the B61-12 bomb.

B61-12 in the Eifel

If the B61-12 is to replace the previous B61 model, it could equally be assumed that this would also apply to the 20 B61 bombs currently stockpiled - in the framework of the so-called nuclear sharing - at the Büchel Airbase in the Eifel, which can be delivered with German PA-200 Tornados. Experts have confirmed that the B61-12 is also compatible with the tornados. According to recent data, by 2019 - 2020 these new bombs should be produced and begin gradually to replace the old B61 bombs - also in Büchel.

The Fighter Jet of the Future

What remains uncertain is what consequences the continuation of nuclear sharing will have on the German Air Force's future planning. The fleet of tornados has shrunk considerably; Of the 357 tornados furnished between 1981 and 1992, only 83 are reportedly still in service. Airbus has begun to draw up a successor model, which should correspond to modern war scenario needs and, for example, be able to fly satellite-controlled accompanied by individual - or swarms of - drones. It could possibly not only replace the tornado, but the Eurofighter as well, it is speculated. However, problems remain in the question of nuclear armament. If the Airbus successor jet fighter model is to be certified for B61-12s, to comply with nuclear sharing, "all of the secrets of the aircraft must be made available to the US."[5] From the standpoint of strategists, seeking Germany's independent role as a global power, this would represent a setback, even for the Eurofighter, which is uncertified to deliver US bombs. At present, there appears to be no solution on the horizon.

Key Customer, USA

The conversion of the US nuclear forces to bombs having possibly a lowered inhibition threshold for use, could also affect Germany's nuclear industry - or more precisely the German-Netherlands-British Uranium Enrichment Company (URENCO) and its German subsidiary, the Gronau uranium enrichment facility. Its key customer is the United States of America, which in 2016, had purchased 440 tons of enriched uranium in Gronau to run its nuclear reactors.[6] Business with he USA is considered very promising, because, the USA has not had its own enrichment facility since 2013, because it is unprofitable. Although a growing number of voices within the US establishment have been urgently calling for plans to construct, if necessary, government facilities, because US laws - in principle - do not allow foreign products to be used in essential arms production sectors, no decision, however, has been taken.[7] This is one of the reasons why, in May, the government-owned Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) commissioned URENCO's US subsidiary to supply an additional two - the Watts Bar and the Sequoyah - TVA nuclear power plants. The contract volume was at US $500 million.[8]

"Supply Operations"

The deal is controversial because the Watts Bar power plant produces, as a by-product, Tritium, which is indispensable for the US stocks of nuclear weapons. Tritium reinforces the impact of warheads, but, because of its 12 year half-life span, must continuously be renewed. It has been reported that the German URENCO Gronau subsidiary had some time ago already indirectly made deliveries to Watts Bar.[9] However, the currently envisaged direct delivery would be in direct violation of URENCO regulations, prohibiting any use of URENCO products for military purposes. US experts have recently pointed out that some exporting countries will not sell low-enriched uranium for tritium production to Watts Bar, because agreements in place limit use solely for peaceful purposes.[10] URENCO does not share these objections. The German government is represented on URENCO's Board of Directors "Joint Committee." Germany's Ministry of Economics recently commented on URENCO supplying enriched uranium to Watts Bar, saying it is a matter of "a US domestic supply operation," which "the German government is unaware of."[11] The "supply operation" potentially pertains not only to US nuclear weapons production in general, but specifically the production of the B61-12 - the nuclear bomb with a lowered inhibitions threshold for its being used.

For more information on this theme see: NATO's Nuclear Debate, Shock as Opportunity, and Reaching for the Bomb.

[1] Russland hält laut SIPRI 1.950 Atomsprengköpfe einsatzbereit, die USA 1.800, Frankreich 280, Großbritannien 120.
[2] Trends in World Nuclear Forces, 2017. SIPRI Fact Sheet July 2017.
[3] Tom O'Connor: The U.S. Is Building a Nuclear Bomb That's More Accurate Than Ever. www.newsweek.com 18.04.2017.
[4] America's New Guided Standoff Nuclear Bomb. FAS, 30.05.2013.
[5] Gerhard Hegmann: Neuer Kampfjet bringt Deutschland die Atombomben-Frage. www.welt.de 12.06.2017.
[6] Jürgen Döschner: Deutsches Uran für US-Atomwaffen? www.tagesschau.de 11.05.2017.
[7] John R. Harvey, Franklin C. Miller: The looming crisis for US tritium production. www.defensenews.com 06.03.2017.
[8] Jürgen Döschner: Das heikle Geschäft mit dem URENCO-Uran. www.tagesschau.de 14.06.2017.
[9] Jürgen Döschner: Deutsches Uran für US-Atomwaffen? www.tagesschau.de 11.05.2017.
[10] John R. Harvey, Franklin C. Miller: The looming crisis for US tritium production. www.defensenews.com 06.03.2017.
[11] Jürgen Döschner: Das heikle Geschäft mit dem URENCO-Uran. www.tagesschau.de 14.06.2017.