Ignored Wars (II)

Weaken Arabs

Pursuing geostrategic objectives, Germany and the United States have been systematically encouraging the secession of South Sudan since the mid 1990s. For the past three years, that region has been drowning in blood. In the 1980s, the Federal Republic of Germany had been selling weapons to Sudan.[1] However, since the mid 1990s western powers have been increasingly dissociating themselves from Khartoum, because of the growing conflict between the West and recalcitrant governments in the Arab world, including the Arab-dominated Sudan. During the second half of the 1990s, Germany began to support the secessionist movement in the Black African south of the country, in an effort to weaken the country's Arab north. Nearly three quarters of its oil reserves are located in today's South Sudan. Their secession, therefore, would entail a grave economic loss for the North. Bonn, and subsequently Berlin, provided important support for secession. The Max-Planck Institute for Comparative Public Law and International Law in Heidelberg has helped train personnel for the South Sudanese justice system and assisted in elaborating South Sudan's constitution. Later, the German Association for International Cooperation (GIZ) began its activities in Juba, including a ten year "program supporting the formation of governmental structures in South Sudan," launched in 2007. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[2])

Strengthen the West

In their attempt to weaken Sudan, Washington and Berlin pursued plans to link secessionist South Sudan and its huge oil reserves to African pro-western structures. Immediately following its declaration of independence on July 9, 2011, Juba, therefore, oriented itself toward becoming a member of the East African Community (EAC). Unlike Khartoum, the EAC has close ties to Western powers. Businesses from Kenya and Uganda began penetrating South Sudanese markets on their northern borders. The German GIZ constructed roads linking South Sudan to Uganda. Ambitious infrastructure projects were planned not only to link South Sudan to Kenya and Uganda via a new railroad network, but to also lay pipelines from the South Sudanese oil fields to Kenyan ports at the Indian Ocean. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[3]) Even if the latter project was unsuccessful, the mega geostrategic experiment was a success in one respect: In September, Juba submitted its ratification certificate for membership at the EAC headquarters in Kenya's capital, Arusha.[4] This practically, however, is of little help. For nearly three years, the new EAC member has been embroiled in a civil war.

"Like Somalia"

This is exactly what observers had warned about already before South Sudan's secession. In fact, the war of secession between South Sudanese militias and the Sudanese military raging for decades, had resulted in fewer South Sudanese casualties than the internal South Sudanese power struggles being waged at the same time. The latter persisted even when secession was already within reach. In 2009 alone, more than 2,500 people were killed in battles between various South Sudanese linguistic groups, with nearly 300,000 being displaced.[5] In the first semester of 2010, the United Nations recorded at least 700 casualties from internal South Sudanese feuds and nearly 150,000 displaced.[6] Berlin and Washington's protégé, the regime in power in Juba, already at the time, was considered to be "extremely anti-democratic." Members of aid organizations, active in South Sudan, spoke of "tremendous" discontent toward the regime.[7] A member of the South Sudanese opposition had warned in early 2010, "this will wind up like Somalia."[8] He was subsequently prohibited from engaging in any political activity in South Sudan.

A Humanitarian Disaster

The warnings, which Berlin and Washington had chosen to ignore completely, so as not to jeopardize their mega geostrategic experiment, had proven to be well founded by December 2013 at the latest. At that time, the power struggles in Juba had escalated into a new civil war, which only calmed somewhat in August 2015, when the two fiercely embattled factions reached an accord. In April 2016, a unity government was formed, which in July 2016 disintegrated in bloody massacres. Both sides - including government forces - are accused of the most serious human rights violations. Numerous civilians have been killed, simply for belonging to a particular linguistic group. Hospitals and facilities of the United Nations have become targets of murderous attacks; sexual violence against women is omnipresent. According to UNICEF, at least 16,000 children have already been recruited as soldiers. The number of casualties in the civil war is unknown, but UN staff members estimate them to be at least 50,000. According to experts, the number of South Sudanese casualties could be much higher. Since December 2013, more than 2.7 million people have been displaced; 4.8 million - roughly 40 percent of the population - face life-threatening hunger.[9]

Passes over in Silence

The South Sudanese civil war, which erupted in the aftermath of the region's secession - with vigorous German support - from Sudan, is largely passed over in silence by German politicians and media. The geostrategic objective of weakening Sudan has been accomplished. The internal conditions in South Sudan are - from Berlin's point of view - of merely secondary importance, as long as they do not provoke a mass exodus toward the EU. On the ground, the United Nations Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (UNMISS) is trying to prevent at least the most extreme excesses, without too much success. The Bundeswehr is currently participating in the UNMISS with 15 soldiers, providing Berlin with intimate knowledge of current developments in the civil war region. On Wednesday, the German government decided to prolong the Bundeswehr's mandate for UNMISS until the end of 2017 and the Bundestag will soon give its approval. An end to the killing in South Sudan is nowhere in sight.

[1] See English rather than Arabic.
[2] See Zerschlagen und neu aufbauen, Establishing a State and The Benefit of Secession.
[3] See The Train to Independence (II) and At the Brink of War.
[4] Republic of South Sudan deposits Instruments of Ratification on the accession of the Treaty for the establishment of the East African Community to the Secretary General. eac.int.
[5] See Nächstes Jahr ein neuer Staat.
[6] See The Benefit of Secession.
[7] "Im Südsudan herrscht der Super-GAU". derstandard.at 04.02.2010.
[8] Sudanischer Kuhhandel. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 27.02.2010.
[9] Lauren Ploch Blanchard: Conflict in South Sudan and the Challenges Ahead. Congressional Research Service, 22.09.2016.