The Radius of Germany's Governance Policy

Period of Grace for Assad

The new negotiations, carried out in the wings of the UN General Assembly in New York, on a breakthrough in the war in Syria, have led to de Mistura forming "working groups." Following extensive preparations and at Russia's insistence,[1] the West is now showing an inclination to cease its one-sided insistence on the overthrow of the Assad government, and reach an alignment of interests by supporting negotiations between the Syrian government and the opposition. According to what has been heard from Teheran, the planned deal would include Assad's leaving power following a period of grace. "At the moment," the Syrian government should "not be weakened," Iran's President, Hassan Rohani is quoted to have said, as soon as the immediate threat by the jihadist terrorists is alleviated, "we can immediately pursue the reforms needed in Syria."[2] In its statements, Berlin has furnished other indications. Already last week, Chancellor Angela Merkel affirmed that negotiations must include even Assad. Yesterday, Monday, German Defense Minister, Ursula von der Leyen agreed, however, adding the stipulation, "Assad cannot be an element of a long-term solution."[3]

Prelude to a National Conference

While plans for negotiations, with the participation of the Assad government, are still being opposed by sectors of the political establishments in both Washington and Berlin, de Mistura has, in the name of the United Nations, already established "working groups" for the upcoming negotiations. All of these will be headed by Europeans. As mediators, they evidently enjoy the confidence of both the government in Damascus and the Syrian opposition - unlike US-Americans or Russians. Jan Egeland (Norway) is slated to head the "Working Group - Safety and Protection," Nicolas Michel (Switzerland), the "Working Group - Political and Legal Issues," Birgitta Holst Alani (Sweden), the "Working Group - Continuity of Public Services, Reconstruction and Development," and Volker Perthes, (Germany), the "Working Group - Military, Security and Counter Terrorism." According to de Mistura, "the results of these working groups should, at some point, form the basis of an agreement to end the conflict."[4] Perthes sees the talks as a possible "prelude to a larger Syrian National Conference," "in which Syrians will discuss their nation's future."[5]

Unstable Environment

Germany is the only major western nation, which has been able to place an influential government advisor - Perthes - in a prominent position in the UN's "working groups." Since 2005, Perthes, a well-known expert on the Middle East, has directed the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin, a think tank financed by the Chancellery. In February, during the discussion on the Bundeswehr's new "White Paper," Perthes, in his capacity as SWP Director, contributed also his views on Germany's political place in the world. According to Perthes, Germany is a "responsible middle power," which "in conjunction with others, maintains and develops European and global governance." The "radius," "in which Germany and Europe carry the primary responsibility for governance" stretches across "Europe, itself," "but of course also [to] the neighboring countries at the eastern and southern vicinity - in Africa and the Middle East."[6] These remarks reflect recommendations of a strategy paper, which was prepared two years ago, under the auspices of the SWP and the German Marshall Fund of the United States with the participation of some 50 specialists from the German establishment. The paper recommends that German foreign and security policy "will have to concentrate primarily on the increasingly unstable European vicinity, from Northern Africa and the Middle East to Central Asia, not least to relieve Germany's U.S. allies in NATO, as the United States increasingly focuses on Asia."[7] Current German activities, regarding Syria, reflect these concepts.

Political Options

Thus, over the past few years, under Perthes' leadership, the SWP has repeatedly focused on Syria, an important country in "the increasingly unstable European vicinity." The project "The Day After," jointly pursued by the SWP and the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), during the first half of 2012, has played a major role. This project was openly aimed at establishing the basis for restructuring the Syrian state in the aftermath of Assad. More than 40 activists of the Syrian opposition in exile had taken part, including liberals and Muslim Brotherhood members. It had not included the leftwing opposition within Syrian, who have been rejecting plans for the government's violent overthrow and seeking a peaceful solution to the conflict.[8] In 2012, while the SWP and USIP were planning Syria's reorganization, the western powers were rejecting Moscow's proposals to align the various interests in the conflict and end the war in Syria. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[9]) SWP is currently pursuing a project to study "Syria's fragmentation" with the focus on "the development of political options" for that devastated country. The project will continue until December and is financed with special funds by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Bundeswehr Deployment

SWP director, Perthes, who heads the "Working Group - Military, Security and Counter Terrorism," within the framework of UN-sponsored negotiations between Damascus and the Syrian opposition, supports deployment of the Bundeswehr in Syria. "Even a cease-fire, or a transitional agreement between the current government and the opposition" would "not eliminate fear and distrust," according to Perthes. "Provocations and set-backs are hardly avoidable. Much would speak in favor of an international peacekeeping mission."[10] The SWP director warns, "Germany should not stay on the sidelines, when the United Nations begins looking for troop contingents." Besides, the war will continue, even if the government and the opposition reach an agreement. "The problem will be to push IS back - politically and militarily. Syria will not be able to do either without international help." A deployment of the Bundeswehr in Syria would correspond to the German establishment's plans to show more presence in the "European vicinity, from Northern Africa and the Middle East to Central Asia,"[11] - both politically and militarily.

[1] See Machtkampf in Nahost.
[2] Andreas Ross, Majid Sattar: Neuer Anlauf unter neuen Vorzeichen. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 28.09.2015.
[3] Von der Leyen: Assad nicht ausschließen. www.faz.net 28.09.2015.
[4] Erdogan will mit Putin über Syrien reden. diepresse.com 22.09.2015.
[5] Volker Perthes: Eine Lösung für Syrien. Handelsblatt 21.09.2015.
[6] Volker Perthes: Wissenschaft und Weißbuch. Berlin 17.02.2015. www.bmvg.de. See Modern Strategy Concept (II).
[7] Neue Macht - Neue Verantwortung. Elemente einer deutschen Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik für eine Welt im Umbruch. Ein Papier der Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) und des German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). Oktober 2013. See The Re-Evaluation of German Foreign Policy.
[8] See The Day After, The Day After (II), The Day After (III) and The Day After (IV).
[9] See Cynical Options.
[10] Volker Perthes: Eine Lösung für Syrien. Handelsblatt 21.09.2015.
[11] Neue Macht - Neue Verantwortung. Elemente einer deutschen Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik für eine Welt im Umbruch. Ein Papier der Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) und des German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). Oktober 2013. See The Re-Evaluation of German Foreign Policy.