Crash with Consequences

War Scenarios

The Airbus A400M, whose lengthy planning process dates back to the 1980s, has played a major role in the Bundeswehr's preparation for future global combat missions. The A400M was supposed to insure the rapid long-distance relocation of troops and combat material. When the Transall was built back in the 1960s - which, the Bundeswehr, lacking an alternative, is still using today - they had been conceived for cold war European theater scenarios of the period. "The primary intention was bringing forward supplies to the troops from the rear to the temporary landing strips close to the combat zones," explains the Air Force. A good 15 ton "payload" transported "1,500 km" would be sufficient.[1] This certainly does not fulfill requirements of Berlin's current war scenarios, which envisage armed interventions around the world. The Airbus A400M can carry a payload of up to 37 tons more than 3,000 km. It also permits in-flight refueling, which further extends this flight radius. It can transport military vehicles including the Puma armored infantry fighting vehicle, whose weight (31.5 tons) is specifically designed to conform to the A400M. The A400M can also carry Tiger attack Eurocopter and the NH90 transport helicopter to theaters of mission.

Delays and Technical Difficulties

From the standpoint of Berlin's war strategists, the numerous delays and technical difficulties that, from the beginning, have plagued the development and production of the Airbus A400M are all the more serious. Already, the first test flight at the end of 2008, was 18 months late. The first operational aircraft was turned over to the French military in September 2013 - five years later than scheduled. Airbus provided the Bundeswehr with its first A400M on December 19, 2014 - with multiple deficiencies. It has been reported that the transporter is incapable of airdropping troops and material. It has also deficiencies for landing on non-paved runways. The A400M will not be equipped with its ground-to-air missile protection systems before 2016. Therefore, these planes are conceivably unsuited for deployment to warzones. Finally, shortcomings for the A400M serving as a tanker aircraft, have also become apparent. Because the A400M apparently cannot possibly refuel helicopters in flight, Paris, according to a report, is contemplating the acquisition of the USA's Lockheed Martin produced C-130 Hercules.[2] If France does, this would put into question the EU's main powers' ambitions of acquiring the capability of autonomously waging wars throughout the world - independent of the USA.

A Serious Setback

Saturday's A400M crash near Seville will have a serious impact in various ways. On the one hand, the Bundeswehr immediately had to cease its flights with this transport aircraft. Following an initial test flight in February, a first mission was flown to Dakar (Senegal) in April. A single flight, on a single day, airlifted military equipment that would have required two to three days with two to three Transall planes, according to the German Air Force. The German A400M will remain grounded as long as the cause of Saturday's crash has not been corrected. This also threatens to provoke further delays delivery. It is uncertain when the next of the 40 ordered transport planes can be delivered to the Bundeswehr. The crash cannot be expected to enhance sales publicity for the aircraft. In the fall of 2013, France's Minister of Defense, Jean-Yves Le Drian was still daydreaming about this "aircraft's gigantic export potential," as Airbus was speaking in terms of a sales volume of between 300 and 400 units.[3] A strong turnover would be economically all the more necessary, since costs of production - as so often happens with similar mega-projects - have already superseded by one-third the originally planned 20 billion Euros. Other than the EU's main powers, Turkey and Malaysia are the only countries to have chosen to buy the A400M. The plane involved in the accident had been earmarked for the Turkish Air Force.

Ruslan Salis

For the time being, because of the A400M's persisting technical difficulties, the Bundeswehr will remain, dependent on Russia for its logistical air transport. Because logistical airlifts to the Afghanistan combat zone were impossible for Transall to handle, NATO signed a contract with the Russian Volga-Dnepr Airlines - Ukrainian Antonov Airlines joint venture, "Ruslan Salis Inc". Together, the two aviation companies have at their disposal more than 17 of the exceptionally large Antonov AN-124 cargo planes, with an exclusive cargo capacity of up to 150 tons. Since 2006, within the framework of their Ruslan Salis Inc. joint venture - "Salis" stands for "Strategic AirLift Interim Solution" - Volga-Dnepr and Antonov have placed six AN-124s each at NATO's disposal at the Leipzig/Halle airport.[4] In the meantime, the Bundeswehr has used the AN-124s on more than 300 flights, particularly to transport combat equipment to and from Afghanistan and deliver relief supplies and weaponry to Northern Iraq.

Demand-Based

Evidently, not even the new cold war has an impact on the use of Russian transporters for Bundeswehr missions. Last fall, a Lieutenant Colonel in the German Ministry of Defense insisted that the rapidly escalating tensions between Russia and the West have "no impact" on Ruslan Salis. At the time, the chair of the Parliamentary Defense Committee, Hans-Peter Bartels (SPD) declared that he sees "no reason to cast doubt on the Salis contract." The arrangement is "ideal for the Bundeswehr."[5] The NATO Support Agency renewed the contract with Ruslan Salis Inc. December 19, extending it to December 31 2016. Given the A400M's problems, even an expansion of the cooperation is not to be ruled out. It "depends on the demand and the willingness of the participating partner nations," confirmed the Parliamentary State Secretary in the Ministry of Defense, Ralf Brauksiepe in February.[6]

Heavyweights

Not even a fully operational A400M would be capable of completely replacing an AN-124. In Afghanistan, the Bundeswehr had six Tank Howitzers - 2000s in operation - each had been relocated by an AN-124. According to army descriptions, these howitzers weigh 48.6 tons a piece, which is much too heavy for the A400M. The same holds true for the Leopard - 2 battle tanks, whose various versions weigh more than 50 tons. The Bundeswehr would not be able to airlift them alone, even in the future. Up to now, Moscow has been lending a hand.

[1] Der Übergang von der Transall zum A400M. www.luftwaffe.de 26.06.2014.
[2] La France va acquérir des C-130 (MàJ). www.air-cosmos.com 02.04.2015.
[3] Christian Schubert: Erster Airbus-Transporter geht an Frankreich. www.faz.net 30.09.2013.
[4] See Windiges... and Windiges aus der deutschen Luftfahrt.
[5] Im Bauch des russischen Bären. www.focus.de 29.09.2014.
[6] Deutscher Bundestag, Drucksache 18/4044, 20.02.2015.