From Kurdistan to Alawitestan

BERLIN/ERBIL (Own report) - Critics warn against Germany supplying arms to the autonomous administration in Erbil, northern Iraq. "Exclusively arming the Kurds," as Berlin is planning, would be "a de facto recognition of Iraq's division," concludes political scientist, Abdel Mottaleb El Husseini, an expert on the Arab world. In this case, you can forget "Iraq, as a nation," and new tensions can be expected between a seceded "Kurdistan" and the remaining Arab areas of the country. Last June, in fact, Massud Barzani, the President of the autonomous administration, announced a plan for establishing the state of "Kurdistan." Observers expect that such a state would have close ties to NATO-member Turkey and would serve as a "buffer to the war zones in Syria and Iraq." Last year, an even more radical fragmentation of the entire Middle East was proposed. Assad-controlled territory in Syria could be dwindled to a small "Alawitestan," and the remaining parts of the country could be merged with regions of Iraq to form "Kurdistan" and "Sunnistan." These newly formed mini-states would be powerless with no potential for resistance and would, therefore, be easier to control than the Arab nations as they currently exist.

Arms for Iraq

This Wednesday, the German government will make its final decision on supplying arms to the Iraqi war zone. The government has already decided it would supply arms, however, it has not made a decision on the types of arms it will provide the Iraqi combatants. Delivery of the "Milan" anti-tank missile from Bundeswehr stocks is under consideration, with Iraqi combatants receiving the necessary training for its use "in a neighboring country,"[1] meaning, most likely, Turkey. Italy is allegedly planning to deliver 1000 MG-42 machine guns, which it had once received from Germany. Bulgaria should buy new assault rifles for its army and deliver AK-47 assault rifles from its stocks.[2] According to current plans, Bundeswehr aircraft will deliver these weapons and the respective ammunition to Iraq. In a special session on September 1, the Bundestag will debate this issue, but the parliament is not empowered to make the decision. According to recent opinion polls, 67 percent of the German population opposes these arms deliveries.

The Recognition of Division

This combat material will be directly delivered to the combat forces of northern Iraq's Autonomous Government. The Chancellor has confirmed, "we are delivering the weapons to the Kurdish Peshmerga, in other words, to the combatants of the autonomous region of Kurdistan."[3] Formally speaking, "Iraq's central government has granted its accord," without which, "the delivery would have not been legally possible," Angela Merkel explained. The fact that the weapons will be delivered directly to Erbil is of significance, because the autonomous region in northern Iraq is preparing to secede. June 23, its President Massud Barzani announced in an interview in CNN that the Kurdish-speaking population has a "right to self-determination." He is also considering a referendum on secession from Iraq. A large majority in favor is seen as assured. Barzani's CNN interview will probably "go down in history as Kurdistan's founding document," says Friedbert Pflüger, a former Parliamentary State Secretary in Germany's Ministry of Defense.[4] Pflüger parts from the premise that - even if its founding is still delayed by the conflict with the "Islamic State" (IS) - a future Kurdistan will not renounce its claims on Kirkuk and the regions around Mosul, which the autonomous government had captured in June. Pflüger writes, "the Kurds, according to their president, will 'fight to the last bullet' for these regions." If they, alone, are furnished weapons, as the German government plans, this would be "de facto recognizing the division" of Iraq, warns the political scientist, Abdel Mottaleb El Husseini. This would result in new tensions between a seceded "Kurdistan" and the remaining Arab regions of the country.[5]

Buffer against Arab Civil Wars

Friedbert Pflüger also points out that a Kurdish nation on the territory of northern Iraq, would have close ties to NATO ally Turkey. For a long time, Turkey's support for the founding of any form of Kurdish state was unthinkable, because Ankara was fighting its own Kurdish separatists, but this situation now has fundamentally changed. Over the past few years, Turkish enterprises have won a predominating influence in northern Iraq. Erbil has economically become strongly dependent on Ankara. At the same time, the autonomous region has begun delivering oil to Turkey and - via Turkey - to the West. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[6]) From Ankara's perspective, should "Kurdistan" secede from Iraq, it could serve "as a buffer to the civil war regions in Syria and Iraq," according to Pflüger.[7] This is all the more the case, because Syria's Kurdish-speaking region will most likely join the new "Kurdistan."

New Borders

Last fall, the US flagship, the "New York Times" published even more extensive reflections on the formation of a "Kurdistan" comprised of a merger of the Kurdish-speaking region of Iraq with that of Syria. This article was published at the end of September, shortly after the USA had signaled it would not attack Syria - an attack which probably would have led to the replacement of the Syrian government under President Bashar al Assad with a puppet regime. The Times article was authored by the US publicist Robin Wright, who, among other engagements, is also a fellow at the state-financed "United States Institute of Peace," an institution specializing in interventions in conflicts around the world. Wright's article, using map illustrations, criticizes the borders of the Middle East, which had been "defined by European colonial powers a century ago" and "defended by Arab autocrats ever since." "New borders," she writes, may be drawn. "Countries could unravel," according to her text, which conceptually carries the reader through the motions of this process for a large portion of the Arab world.[8]

The Balkanization of the Arab World

According to Wright, Syria has already "crumbled into three identifiable regions," a Kurdish, a Sunni and an Alevist dominated region, still under Assad's control. The latter is labeled "Alawitestan" on the map illustrating her article. The Kurdish region merges with the Kurdish-speaking north of Iraq to form "Kurdistan;" the Sunni region, with the Sunni regions if Iraq to form "Sunnistan," which corresponds to the regions now under the IS terrorists' control. The South of Iraq is designated "Shiitestan" on the map. The fellow of the "United States Institute of Peace" threatens a similar fragmentation of Saudi Arabia, whose coastal regions could be split up into four countries, whose core ("Wahhabistan") should include Northern Yemen. Libya, as well, is to be dissected.[9] If the proposed fragmentations do take place, the West can be certain, there will be no serious resistance to its hegemony from the ensuing impotent mini-states. The breakup of Yugoslavia instigated by the Federal Republic of Germany can serve as a model. (Image: Portion of NY Times September 28, 2013)

A Catalyst

The German government is officially still opposing the secession of "Kurdistan" from Iraq. "An independent state of the Kurds would further destabilize the region and provoke new tensions," Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier is quoted saying.[10] The West is pushing Erbil and Baghdad to engage in joint operations in their war on the IS. However, experts speak of long-term perspectives. "For the first time … Iraqi, Turkish and Syrian Kurds are fighting together against the 'Islamic State'," writes a well known Middle East specialist. "This strengthens Kurdish national consciousness," and it "could become a catalyst for a de facto proclamation of a Kurdish state at the next opportunity."[11]

Other reports and background information on Germany's arming Iraqi troops against the "Islamic State" can be found here: The Public's Keen Sensitivity and Liberated by the West.

[1], [2] Matthias Gebauer: Deutsche Waffenlieferungen: Panzerknacker für die Peschmerga. www.spiegel.de 21.08.2014.
[3] "Ich spüre keinen Druck". www.freiepresse.de 23.08.2014.
[4] Friedbert Pflüger: Geopolitischer Albtraum. Warum die Energiemacht Kurdistan nicht an den IS fallen darf. zeitschrift-ip.dgap.org 15.08.2014.
[5] "Die Kurden könnten Deutschland noch richtig ärgern". www.focus.de 23.08.2014.
[6] See Middle East Partnership Cultivation and Geostrategically Very Prominent.
[7] Friedbert Pflüger: Geopolitischer Albtraum. Warum die Energiemacht Kurdistan nicht an den IS fallen darf. zeitschrift-ip.dgap.org 15.08.2014.
[8], [9] Robin Wright: Imagining a Remapped Middle East. www.nytimes.com 28.09.2013.
[10] Steinmeier lehnt unabhängigen Kurdenstaat ab. www.faz.net 17.08.2014.
[11] Rainer Hermann: Noch kein Kurdistan. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 23.08.2014.


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