The Thucydides Trap

China, a "Global Fire Department"

For quite awhile, eventual military confrontations with China have been discussed in the West in light of the People's Republic's decades of uninterrupted economic upswing. China is about to replace the United States as the world's most important trading power. Experts expect that the Chinese GDP will bypass that of the USA in the foreseeable future. China's significantly growing economic influence is accompanied by a steady growth of its political power. At the same time, the West "is less and less capable of solving its own problems (...) due to the 2009 global financial crisis," according to a recent study by the CSU-affiliated Hanns Seidel Foundation. As the financial crisis has shown, China has even "assumed the role of a fire department to extinguish global crises." With "China's increasing involvement in the World Bank," the USA is threatened a loss of "its control." According to the Seidel Foundation, the question must slowly, but surely be raised: "Has China's system possibly become superior to that of the West?"[1]

Surrounded by Western Alliances

China's emergence has so far led to conflicts in its immediate vicinity, particularly in East and Southeast Asia, where "China's ambitions" to "roll back US influence" can be discerned, writes Carlo Masala, a political scientist at Munich's Bundeswehr University. This is not "unusual when seen historically." As the USA was "emerging to become world power," it had forced the European powers out of its immediate neighborhood in Latin America - to consolidate its own position. Masala concludes: "China is behaving like a normal, emerging superpower."[2] This, however, is a threat to Washington's hegemonic interests. "As a maritime power," it is "of essential importance" for the USA to keep the Pacific's "two opposite shores open" - to maintain its control over Eastern and Southeastern Asia. Otherwise, US hegemony would ultimately be put into question. Washington is, in fact, trying to strengthen its military alliances with countries in East and Southeast Asia ("on the opposite shore") - recently, with Germany's growing participation. Berlin is intensifying its arms supplies and its military policy and direct military cooperation with several countries in the region. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[3]) China is already "surrounded by a network of alliances under US protection," according to Thomas Silberhorn, a CSU foreign policy expert.[4]

German-European Interests

In view of the growing tensions caused by western interference in East and Southeast Asia, various foreign policy organizations are intensifying their discussions on the eventuality of military confrontations between the West and China. This discussion is however taking into account the varying interests pursued by Germany and the EU, on the one hand, and the USA, on the other. Shaosheng Tang, a political scientist from Taipei, for example, concludes in his brief research paper for the Hanns Seidel Foundation that in East and Southeast Asia, the European countries have "more commercial than strategic interests" while lacking - in any case, for the moment - "effective means" of "directly interfering in Eastern Asia."[5] For them, hegemony is not an issue to the extent that it is for the USA. However, Tang admits that, to protect their economic interests, "the Europeans" would like to see the "USA keeping order in Eastern Asia." In addition, German companies see the pursuit of their economic interests becoming significantly more complicated through China's continued upswing. In the first semester of 2013, exports to the People's Republic - which are of great significance to German industry - suffered a downturn, for the first time in many years, because of changes in Chinese economic policy. It cannot be excluded that the Chinese industry might, in the future, substitute for its current German imports. In the long run it could even compete with the German high-tech industry. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[6]) This would inevitably increase German-Chinese rivalry.

Warding off Intervention

In light of the conflicts developing between China and the USA and because of the increased likelihood that Berlin will join sides with Washington, in case of their escalation, the Federal College for Security Studies and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (CDU), under the auspices of Martin Wagener, political scientist (Federal University of Applied Administrative Sciences), evaluated the military balance of forces in Eastern and Southeastern Asia. Military conflict scenarios involving Taiwan and the South China Seas were discussed at the conference ("3rd Trier China-Dialogue") held last June. Wagener also elaborated on the state of important Chinese arms projects, such as the aircraft carrier "Liaoning," the J-20 stealth jet fighter and the "Dongfeng" Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (DF 21D). He referred to an incident in 1996 that had triggered the Chinese arms buildup, when the USA interfered, using gunboat diplomacy, in a dispute between Beijing and Taipei and dispatched two aircraft carrier groups to the vicinity of the Chinese coast. China subsequently began "procuring combat hardware" that "would complicate future US interventions on the Chinese periphery."[7] CSU politician Silberhorn pointed to another motive. It should be taken into consideration that "China's potential for nuclear deterrence is increasingly affected by the missile defense system in the Asian Pacific region, enhanced by the USA and its partners.[8] Officially this system is only directed at the People's Republic of Korea. It is however, as Silberhorn admits, part of the Western arms buildup against China.

War, Not Unlikely

Several articles in a recent Hanns Seidel Foundation publication focused on the question of whether the conflicts between the USA and China could actually escalate into war. The political scientist Carlo Masala, for example, outlines various theoretical perspectives. Whereas, some scientists believe in the possibility of peaceful coexistence, others think that, in the long run, the United States is "striving to contain and retard China's emergence." In a "first step" this will be accomplished by strengthening regional allies." In a "second step," the United States would enter into a direct hegemonic conflict with China over the Asia Pacific region, which most likely will involve military force."[9] Also those of other theoretical persuasions agree that the rivalry in East and Southeast Asia could escalate. However, whether they "escalate into war, will eventually depend on the cleverness of statesmanship on both sides," according to Masala. There have been enough situations in history, where "this cleverness and a resulting constraint" have been lacking.

In 11 out of 15 Cases

The political scientist Tang (Taipei) points out in the same publication that time and again in history, hegemonic countries have provoked wars, in an effort to prevent the emergence of new powers. This phenomenon is also called the "Thucydides Trap": The Greek historian Thucydides blamed Sparta for the war with Athens, because it feared rendering power and influence to an emerging Athens. The "Thucydides Trap" could "snap shut (...) if the emerging (China) and the resident (USA) superpowers cannot get along with one another," warns Tang: Since the year 1500, when "an emerging power collided with an established power" this has often resulted in war - "in 11 out of 15 cases."[10]

Other reports and background information on Germany's policy toward China can be found here: China's Boom and German Reactions, A Ring of Fire around China, Maritime Arms Race, Smash China (II), A Ring of Fire Around China (II), Germany's New Role, China's Lifelines (I), Zones of Future Conflicts and Exports at Risk.

[1] Shaosheng Tang: Der Streit um die Diaoyutai-/Senkaku-Inseln, in: Politische Studien Nr. 451, September/Oktober 2013
[2] Carlo Masala: Folgen für das internationale System, in: Politische Studien Nr. 451, September/Oktober 2013
[3] see also In China's Zone of Influence (I), Die Pax Pacifica (II) und Die Pax Pacifica (III)
[4] Thomas Silberhorn: Chinas Außenbeziehungen zwischen Politik der Zurückhaltung und Politik der Stärke, in: Politische Studien Nr. 451, September/Oktober 2013
[5] Shaosheng Tang: Der Streit um die Diaoyutai-/Senkaku-Inseln, in: Politische Studien Nr. 451, September/Oktober 2013
[6] see also Exports at Risk
[7] Matthias Schneider: Trierer China-Gespräche, Berlin 2013. Tagungsbericht
[8] Thomas Silberhorn: Chinas Außenbeziehungen zwischen Politik der Zurückhaltung und Politik der Stärke, in: Politische Studien Nr. 451, September/Oktober 2013
[9] Carlo Masala: Folgen für das internationale System, in: Politische Studien Nr. 451, September/Oktober 2013
[10] Shaosheng Tang: Der Streit um die Diaoyutai-/Senkaku-Inseln, in: Politische Studien Nr. 451, September/Oktober 2013