Germany's New Role

BERLIN/BEIJING (Own report) - In the prelude to this weekend's new Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang's visit to Germany, a prominent German think tank is pleading for closer German-Chinese cooperation. If Germany seeks to continue to have influence in Beijing, it must "put more weight in the balance than it has in the past," warns a recent statement by the Bertelsmann Foundation. Otherwise Berlin risks suffering the same fate as the EU, which China is marginalizing to a growing degree - not least of all, because of the persisting crisis. The EU's institutions have - "as has often been the case in foreign policy - also overestimated their roles with China." The German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) sees the development of European-Chinese relations similarly. According to SWP, Germany has become the focus of China's attention on Europe, while the EU "has been demoted to a 'political dwarf' in the course of the crisis." Foreign policy specialists outside Germany had critically noted last year that there is a disparity between Germany's China policy and that of other EU countries - wherein Berlin has been having growing success in Beijing. "Europe," in comparison, is being marginalized.

Booming Trade

The most recent shifts in the relations between China and the EU - as well as EU member states - are being carefully observed by foreign policy think tanks. This takes place at several levels. Conspicuous, on the one hand, is the enormous intensification of economic relations. The trade volume between the EU and China has risen from 100 billion Euros in 2000 to 430 billion in 2011, making China the EU's second most important trading partner - for the time being. In German foreign trade statistics, the People's Republic of China (with 144 billion Euros in 2012) has surpassed the United States (with 137 billion Euros) to become Germany's most important non-European trading partner, even though large investment discrepancies still remain. EU investments in China had risen to US $80 billion by the end of 2010, while German investments alone in the USA, according to figures from Germany's Foreign Ministry, were at US $215 billion (end 2011). This relativizes the significance of the steadily growing trade influences of the People's Republic of China, until now.

Initial Shifts in Power

The Euro Crisis has provoked new changes. China, as SWP notes in a recent study, has contributed not only US $43 billion via the IMF, to cushion the crisis, and provided additional credits to individual indebted countries. It has also increased its investments in EU countries in 2010/2011 from US $3 billion to $10 billion and is seeking to increase them further. "Due to the crisis, the People's Republic of China's relations to the EU (...) have been intensified and become more profound, but particularly focused on the economic essential aspects," according to the SWP.[1] In the process, the initial "shifts in power in favor of the People's Republic of China have become apparent." However, with its "more robust approach toward China" the EU has been able to achieve a counterbalance.

Global Loss of Prestige

According to various specialists, the EU has suffered a tangible loss of its political influence in the process. For one thing, Beijing has realized "that the EU was neither willing nor able" to become a "strategic partner in the formation of a 'multipolar world,' challenging the USA's leadership role," writes the SWP. In the meantime, the economic crisis has caused a worldwide loss of "western prestige, in general, and thereby, also of Europe's."[2] As evidence, SWP provides a quote from former Brazilian President Lula da Silva, who observed that the crisis is the result of the "irrational conduct of blue-eyed whites, who, before the crisis, seemed to know everything, but have now been shown to know nothing at all." This refers not only to the USA but also to the EU, which, in the eyes of many countries around the world, "had helped promote the neoliberal 'Washington Consensus' project." In a brief statement on the change of government in Beijing, the Bertelsmann Foundation drew a similar conclusion. The foundation recorded that the new President Xi Jinping had made his first official foreign visits to Russia and the BRICS Summit meeting [3] in South Africa. Prime Minister Li Keqiang has expressed "China's strong interest in upgrading economic relations with the USA and Russia." "Neither the EU nor even Germany were mentioned in the new Chinese leadership's speeches. This should give Europe's governments something to think about."[4]

A Special Relationship

One particular aspect of European-Chinese relationships became apparent last year, arousing interest or disapproval - depending on the perspective: the fact that Germany has focused its policy toward China on its own national interests and the Chinese are increasingly dealing with Europe through Germany, Europe's strongest power. A "special relationship" has developed between these two countries, according to the May 2012 edition of a "Policy Brief" of the European Council on Foreign Relations. The EU is becoming increasingly marginalized in an important field of foreign policy.[5] The SWP acknowledges this. The "obvious contrast between the clearly practical nature of the German-Chinese summit in Berlin in 2012" and "the primarily ceremonial nature of the EU-Chinese summit in Brussels a few days later,"[6] had to be noticed. This shows "the lack of significance that the People's Republic of China places on the summit meeting with the EU" today, in contrast to the "political attention that is particularly being focused on the German government."

More Weight in the Balance

To prevent losing its influence with Beijing, the Bertelsmann Foundation's paper now calls on Germany to "put more weight in the balance than it has done in the past." One starting point could be "solutions to social and ecological problems" which will be decisive "for China's future." In these fields, "Germany has more to offer, in the long run, than the USA or Russia."[7] Important decisions could be reached over the next few days. "The Chinese side has announced," writes the foundation, that "it intends to use Li Keqiang's visit to explore new areas of cooperation and investigate new cooperation mechanisms."[8] These are opportunities Berlin must take.

Test Case

The European Council on Foreign Relations, on the other hand, considers that the relations to China will, to a large extent, define "Germany's new role in Europe." This will become a "test case" for "whether the interests of a stronger Germany, are still aligned with broader European interests."[9] This clearly shows the drifting apart of foreign policy objectives under crisis pressures within the EU, pointing to future tensions and possibly fault lines for Europe.

[1], [2] Hanns W. Maull: Die Europäische Union und die aufsteigenden Schwellenländer: Das Beispiel Volksrepublik China, in: Ronja Kempin, Marco Overhaus (Hg.): EU-Außenpolitik in Zeiten der Finanz- und Schuldenkrise, SWP-Studie S 9, April 2013. See also Impact of the Crisis
[3] BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa.
[4] Minxin Pei, Helmut Hauschild: Gemischte Signale aus Peking; www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de 19.03.2013
[5] Hans Kundnani, Jonas Parello-Plesner: China and Germany: Why the emerging special relationship matters for Europe, European Council on Foreign Relations Policy Brief, May 2012
[6] Hanns W. Maull: Die Europäische Union und die aufsteigenden Schwellenländer: Das Beispiel Volksrepublik China, in: Ronja Kempin, Marco Overhaus (Hg.): EU-Außenpolitik in Zeiten der Finanz- und Schuldenkrise, SWP-Studie S 9, April 2013
[7] Minxin Pei, Helmut Hauschild: Gemischte Signale aus Peking; www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de 19.03.2013
[8] Hintergründe zum Deutschland-Besuch von Chinas Premier Li Keqiang; www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de 23.05.2013
[9] Jonas Parello-Plesner: China-Germany: A 'new special relationship'; www.ecfr.eu 22.05.2013


Login