Breath-Taking Progress

Change of Mood

As indicated by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), more than two thirds of the German population is in favor of using combat drones. The think tank, headquartered in Berlin, is referring to the results of the opinion poll, it had commissioned from the "Forsa" public opinion research institute. According to this poll, 59 percent of the respondents were - "under certain conditions" - in favor of using Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs) in warfare - for example to "ward off an imminent threat." Another 12 percent were in favor of a "general clearance" for UCAVs, with only 27 percent demanding that they be "categorically" forbidden.[1] The results of this opinion poll are in stark contrast to results of two other recently published demoscopic investigations. For example, the "Stern" magazine polled 61 percent of the German population strictly disapproving of the procurement of UCAVs for the German military.[2] The public opinion research institute "Infratest dimap" polled, under contract from the ARD public service television broadcaster, a similar result with two thirds of the respondents being against the German armed forces being provided UCAVs.[3] The DGAP has now produced a poll claiming the exact opposite. Media organs are speaking of a "change of mood on the controversial topic of combat drones."[4]

Without Human Intervention

The results of the DGAP's survey are depicted in the current edition of its periodical "Internationale Politik." This edition expansively covers the theme of "combat drones" and, thereby, presenting numerous experts, who either openly propagate or consider the use of UCAVs to be inevitable. For example Niklas Schörnig, senior research fellow at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF), detects an "enormous technological leap" in UCAVs. This can, for example, also be seen in the growing "precision" of this new type of weapon system, explains the author, while avoiding mention of the number of civilian victims of US UCAV attacks in the Afghan-Pakistani border regions. Schörnig continues by identifying the decisive "trend in development" as the intention of armed forces and arms industries "giving military robots a growing number of autonomous 'chores,' in other words, chores to be carried out without human intervention." This step is the "logical consequence," for the UCAVs to eventually replace the classical fighter jets completely.[5] "Internationale Politik's" editorial board also appears excited about the meteoric technical development of autonomous UCAVs. The journal writes, "the progress in the domain of 'artificial intelligence' - in other words, the capability of a machine, thanks to sufficient filing and computing capacities, to apprehend something complex and reach the appropriate decision - is absolutely breath-taking."[6]

Collateral Damage

In "Internationale Politik," fundamental objections to deploying combat robots are marginalized. The international jurist, Andreas Zimmermann, explains when interviewed by the editors, that there is "no general ban on the use of drones." They must merely be capable of "determining the difference between civilians and combatants." Consequently, the killing of innocent bystanders is not a legal, but rather a political problem for Zimmermann: "The amount of collateral damage allowed under international law is perhaps larger than what we can politically withstand in democracies." Thus, the international jurist sees no eventuality of an international treaty banning the use of UCAVs: "As far as drones and automated systems are concerned, it could be that the train has already pulled out."[7]

With No Personal Risk

An Israeli general - whose anonymity was apparently assured by the editorial board of "Internationale Politik", since he remains unnamed - openly propagates using drones. In his article, the officer, first of all, emphasizes that unmanned systems "provide a greater degree of efficiency in reconnaissance than ever before." He sees another "great advantage" in the remote control of the UCAVs, making it possible for the so-called operator to kill people, and destroy vehicles or buildings without personal risk: "A situation, where someone, perhaps in cooperation with his commanders, makes a decision, sitting in a protected room with access to a comparably panoramic perception of the area and the target, is without a doubt, a more advantageous situation than that of a soldier who has to decide on the battlefield."[8]

Ethically Sound

Statements of this nature correspond to the German government's declared intention to procure combat drones for the German military. Already at the end of January, the German Minister of Defense, Thomas de Maizière (CDU) had declared before the German Bundestag that he considers the use of UCAVs to be "ethically sound" and their procurement "to be reasonable in terms of security policy, alliance policy and technology."[9] Just recently it was made known that the US Congress had approved the sale of 3 "MQ-9 Reaper" combat drones to Germany. These UCAVs, equipped with "Hellfire" missiles, are responsible for a large number of civilians being killed in the regions along the Afghan-Pakistani border.

Protests

The Ministry of Defense has now postponed its plans to an unspecified date subsequent to this year's parliamentary elections. This decision is obviously due to the various protests taking place as well as to tactical electoral considerations. Besides numerous parliamentarians, 128 civic organizations have publically taken position against the procurement of UCAVs. In their appeal entitled "No Combat Drones!," they oppose the "use of drone technology for combat, surveillance, and oppression" and demand that the German government "become engaged in favor of a worldwide ban and international proscription of these weapons."[10] The DGAP sees no necessity in this - on the contrary.

Other reports and background information on the subject of unmanned military systems can be found here: Hunter Killer Missions and Fully Mechanized Warfare.

[1] Einsatz bewaffneter Drohnen? zeitschrift-ip.dgap.org 01.05.2013
[2] Mehrheit der Deutschen sind Kampfdrohnen suspekt; www.stern.de 10.04.2013
[3] Infratest dimap: ARD - Deutschlandtrend Februar 2013. Umfrage zur politischen Stimmung im Auftrag der ARD-Tagesthemen und Die Welt. Berlin 2013
[4] Gefahrenabwehr: Deutsche befürworten Kampfdrohnen im Notfall; www.spiegel.de 25.04.2013
[5] Niklas Schörnig: Noch Science Fiction, bald Realität? Die technische Leistungsfähigkeit aktueller und zukünftiger Drohnen. In: Internationale Politik Mai/Juni 2013
[6] Drohne, "Big Dog", Killer-Roboter. In: Internationale Politik Mai/Juni 2013
[7] "Es gibt keinen rechtsfreien Raum". Interview mit dem Völkerrechtler Andreas Zimmermann. In: Internationale Politik Mai/Juni 2013
[8] Kühle Köpfe, maximale Kontrolle. Ein israelischer General über den Einsatz unbemannter Systeme. In: Internationale Politik Mai/Juni 2013
[9] Rede von Verteidigungsminister Thomas de Maizière am 31. Januar 2013 im Bundestag aus Anlass der Aktuellen Stunde zum Thema "Ausrüstung der Bundeswehr mit bewaffneten Drohnen"; www.bmvg.de
[10] Appell: Keine Kampfdrohnen! drohnen-kampagne.de