Roll Back China's Influence

German Training Program

Over the next few months, special training measures will be undertaken for fifteen employees of various ministries in Myanmar, including those in the country's foreign ministry, according to an announcement by the German Foreign Ministry. This will be organized around next year's Myanmar presidency of the Southeast Asian ASEAN alliance. The purpose is to prepare the Myanmar functionaries, explained the German embassy in Yangon.[1] In a initial step, Berlin's ambassador opened an "orientation workshop" March 6. In May, "a two-week exchange of experiences" will follow, organized in Jakarta together with the Indonesian Foreign Ministry and the ASEAN secretariat. In June and July, the training program concludes with 2-weeks of training at the Foreign Service Academy at the German Foreign Ministry and in Brussels, the ambassador announced.

China's Energy Security

Myanmar's high geostrategic significance - even though widely ignored in Germany - is the reason behind Berlin's activities in that country. Myanmar is "a very interesting partner" for "rolling back China's influence," affirmed Gerhard Will, a Southeast Asia specialist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).[2] The Konrad Adenauer Foundation recently explained why, by recalling that the People's Republic of China currently is dependent on shipping its oil and liquid gas imports from the Middle East and Africa through the Straits of Malacca - a narrow passageway under western control. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[3]) Beijing has begun laying pipelines from Southwest China across Myanmar to its coastline, as an alternative. "This will significantly enhance China's energy security," explains the foundation. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[4]) Stronger western influence in the country could relativize Beijing's enhanced position. Besides, a reinforced western position in Myanmar is an essential element of the western strategy to weaken the People's Republic of China in its own backyard.[5]

Years of Preparation

In its efforts to gain influence on the Myanmarian ministerial bureaucracy, Berlin could draw on the years of preparation by the CSU-affiliated Hanns Seidel Foundation. This foundation was active in Myanmar already back in 1996, becoming the first German foundation to officially open a branch office in the country's largest city Yangon, on October 23, 2012. One of the Seidel Foundation's first activities was to support Myanmar's integration into the international ASEAN alliance, in the latter half of the 1990s. This was in German interests, because ASEAN facilitated its overwhelming majority of pro-western countries, to jointly pursue their interests - against China. This is right in line with the training seminar, organized by the Seidel Foundation in December 2012 for the Myanmarian Foreign Ministry.[6] It helped prepare the ministerial bureaucracy for the ASEAN presidency - now with the participation of the foreign ministry.

Business Offensive

Supplementary to its growing political activities, the German government is now promoting the expansion of economic relations to Myanmar - as a basis for exerting influence in the future. April 22, the EU - due also to German pressure - lifted its economic sanctions on Myanmar, which had been imposed by Brussels in an effort to isolate the country, as long as it continued to refuse direct western interference. Since some time, the German Ministry of the Economy has been supporting trips of delegations to that country and suggested the possibility of furnishing Hermes warranties. Only weapons exports are, for the time being, still under restriction. This business offensive - which has greatly enhanced the amount of German exports to Myanmar - is usually justified with the allegation that this poverty-stricken country seriously needs to be invigorated. However, even western critics point out that the current economic opening is only benefitting the western companies and local elites, under the domination of the military, while the major portion of the population is receiving absolutely no benefit at all.

The military and their Cronies

Last fall, the renowned U.S. magazine Foreign Policy therefore called the allegation that the Myanmar regime's current economic reform would promote the country's broad-based development "the greatest myth of them all."[7] Western businesses are mainly interested in Myanmar's natural resources. Their extraction, however, creates only minimal employment and does not stimulate the technology transfer, so urgently needed in the country. The simple population will hardly benefit, because the businesses involved are sharing the profits with the government. In the agrarian sector, the situation is similar. Nothing is being done for small peasants, the largest portion of the country's population - whereas the government has facilitated large-scale "land grabs" on behalf of the elite and foreign investors. The author considers that Myanmar would "actually be better off without a massive rush of primary sector investment." He also points out that the recent privatizations have benefitted the urban elites - that one can, therefore, speak of the country's "oligarchization." The SWP's specialist, Gerhard Will, draws a similar conclusion. "In the economic sector" he explains, "old structures are still prevailing, in which the military and their cronies are tightly linked and influential and wealthy businessmen hold key positions."[8]

Without Consequences

Human rights organizations are also strongly criticizing the new German-European cooperation with the Naypyidaw regime. Human Rights Watch, for example, protested against the EU's decision to lift the sanctions on Myanmar, also because of the ongoing pogroms against Muslims. These pogroms began in June 2012 and had caused at least 211 casualties by October, according to official statistics. Human Rights Watch estimates that number to be significantly higher. Security forces rarely intervene, when Buddhist mobs attacked the Rohingya minority or other Muslims, Human Rights Watch explains in its detailed report. There are numerous cases of security forces being directly involved in the violence and even in murder. The government has not only remained inactive. Following the first wave of pogroms, the President even called for having the Rohingya deported from the country.[9] The violence continues. A Buddhist mob killed someone else Tuesday. At least nine others were injured and approximately 80 homes destroyed, while the Naypyidaw regime takes no effective action. And because Myanmar has opened up to Western efforts to roll back China's influence, there will be no consequences.

Please read also the Civilian Guise.

[1] Deutschland unterstützt Myanmar bei den Vorbereitungen zum ASEAN-Vorsitz 2014; www.rangun.diplo.de
[2] Burma: "Das Militär hat Aung Suu Kyi entzaubert"; derstandard.at 25.04.2013
[3] see also Die Pax Pacifica (II) and Die Pax Pacifica (III)
[4] Andreas Dittrich: Die Auswirkungen der Reformen in Myanmar auf das Verhältnis zu Peking - Verliert China seine dominante Stellung? www.kas.de Februar 2013. See also Die Prioritäten der Machtpolitik (I)
[5] see also A Ring of Fire Around China (II)
[6] Myanmar; www.hss.de
[7] Jared Bissinger: Burma's Economy: A Reality Check, Foreign Policy September 2012
[8] Burma: "Das Militär hat Aung Suu Kyi entzaubert"; derstandard.at 25.04.2013
[9] Human Rights Watch: "All You Can Do is Pray". Crimes Against Humanity and Ethnic Cleansing of Rohingya Muslims in Burma's Arakan State, April 2013