The Dangers of Repression
DOHA/BERLIN (Own report) - German specialists in foreign policy are expressing their misgivings about Berlin's intensive cooperation with the Arabian dictatorships at the Gulf, particularly with Qatar. According to a recent analysis published by the German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA), this cooperation could prove useful on an economic level. However, on a political level, it should be taken into consideration that, until now, Qatar has proven extremely resistant to outside influence. This is not only the case of Berlin and Brussels' aspiration of concluding a free trade agreement with the Gulf States, but also in questions of human rights and of embedding the population using parliamentary democracy. The GIGA analysis points out that even the Qatari ruling clan does not exclude the possibility of domestic upheavals on a long term - and therefore refuses to sign international human rights agreements. The German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) also points to the limits of shoring up repressive regimes, as had become evident, most recently, during the overthrow of the presidents of Tunisia and Egypt. According to the SWP, the Bahraini opposition's repression - which is supported by Qatar - runs the risk, sooner or later, of seeing the local unrest spreading to other countries, particularly to Saudi Arabia - with serious consequences. Berlin, however, is supporting this repression with its delivery of tanks to Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Flanked by Top-Echelon
The GIGA analysis was published on the occasion of the Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Hamad bin Jassim al Thani's Berlin visit, in mid-April.[1] As the author points out, the Qatari head of state not only held talks with the German Chancellor. Even the "Business and Investment in Qatar Forum" on April 15, - 16, held this time in the German capital, was "politically flanked by the top echelon" with Germany's Chancellor and Foreign Minister in attendance.[2] This is not only a result of the growing intensity of business relations. On the one hand, the Qatar Investment Authority has invested more than ten billion Euros in German companies, and on the other, enterprises in Germany are seeking to land high-profit business deals from the billions to be invested over the next few years in the Gulf dictatorship - particularly in infrastructure projects. Even more important is Berlin's growing cooperation with Doha in the field of foreign policy.
Joint Interventions
According to the GIGA analysis, this has been particularly the case in the Qatari Emirate's foreign policy interventions since 2011. Qatar's active interference "on behalf of particular actors in political processes" abroad has been growing, writes the author.[3] Social and religious factors determine Doha's current support. In Bahrain, for example, Qatar is contributing to keep the monarchs in power, in spite of the growing opposition - a move designed, in the long run, to shore up the ruling elites of the feudal clans of the dictatorships on the Arabian Peninsular against upheavals of the lower social strata. As was recorded in the GIGA analysis, Doha simultaneously promotes Islamist forces throughout the rest of the Arab world, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood - and is therefore publicly criticized by "secular politicians" in the countries concerned. "Qatar's new regional policy" is being "less critically assessed" only in the West, observes the author. As a matter of fact, Doha's activities largely complement the transformation of western policy toward the Arab world in 2011, which is linked to reinforcing particular Islamist currents. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[4]) One example is the joint interference by Qatar and western countries in the Syrian civil war - even though the West has come to realize that the support for the Islamists is getting out of hand.[5]
Hardly Opposition, Thanks to Prosperity
As is shown by the GIGA analysis, German specialists in foreign policy are beginning to develop certain reservations toward Berlin's strengthened cooperation with the dictatorships at the Gulf - particularly with Qatar. The author points out that the Emirate adamantly rejects "cultural and political" influence and concrete demands emanating from abroad, as soon as these do not conform to its own interests. For example, the EU's negotiations with the Gulf Cooperation Council [6] for a free trade agreement "has not been finalized in two years."[7] Particularly Qatar has become extremely "assertive" also in questions of human rights and parliamentary democracy. "Parliamentary elections" had already been scheduled for 2003 - however "the ruling family has blocked them." There is "practically no political opposition." The reason, according to the analysis, is not only to be found in the fact that the billions from oil and gas production allow the Al Thani clan to insure the small number of Qatari citizens - approx. 300,000 - an extremely attractive income. An income of over US $100,000, the "highest per-capita annual income in the world," has so-far helped to thwart activities critical of the government.
15 Years for a Poem
According to the GIGA analysis, one must take the fact into account that Doha reacts with brutal repression, in cases where people are no longer lulled by prosperity, as was the case of the poet Muhammad bin al Dhib al Ajami. He "packaged into a poem" a certain amount of "criticism" of conditions in the country and was "charged with insulting the Emir and with alleged plans to overthrow the system," reports the GIGA study's author. At least, the competent court did not sentence him to "life in prison or give him the death penalty," as was feared. He was, instead, sentenced to "15 years in prison."[8] The author points out, that Doha has "signed neither the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights nor that on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights." This illustrates "the political elite's uncertainty about whether the enormous prosperity can permanently immunize the country's population against demands for greater political participation."
No Stability without Participation
The German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) openly expresses fears that, in the long-run, the highly repressive Gulf dictatorships are as much threatened by civil unrest as the repressive regimes of Ben Ali, Mubarak and Assad, before them. According to a recent SWP analysis, particularly the Bahraini regime's repression should arouse concern. Since early 2011, this regime has used brutal force against demonstrators, protesting the social, economic and political discrimination of the country's Shiite majority. Over the last two years, between 80 and 120 people had been killed during the protests, reports SWP.[9] The risk that escalating tensions will spill over into Saudi Arabia, with its large, heavily discriminated Shiite minority located in its eastern regions, should not be disregarded. Ending the discrimination would be the only alternative, in the long run, according to the author. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain could "remain stable, only if they would adopt rule of law and political participation." Berlin should point out that "continuing the present policy would breed destabilization."
Counterinsurgency
Destabilization of the Gulf dictatorships would indeed affect Germany and the West's currently most important cooperation partners in the Middle East. The SWP author points out that Berlin is accepting this risk by rearming the regime: The 2A7+ Leopard battle tanks, which Germany plans to supply Saudi Arabia are "designed for use in counterinsurgency."[10] Such arms deliveries counteract "efforts seeking a peaceful solution to the conflict," which would urgently be needed to secure long-term political stability in the Gulf dictatorships, writes the author of the SWP analysis. Berlin's answer was recently provided by an arms company: the Leopard 2A7+ battle tank will also be delivered to Qatar. This would be impossible without the consent of German government.
[1] see also In an Alliance with the Dictatorship
[2], [3] Oliver Borszik: Ambivalente Erfahrungen mit der "Gestaltungsmacht" Katar, GIGA Focus Nahost 3/2013
[4] see also Vom Feind zum Partner, Der Feind meines Feindes, The Islamization of the Rebellion, Not the More Liberal Order and The Muslim Brotherhood as Partners
[5] see also The Islamization of the Rebellion, In Rebel Territory (II) and In Rebel Territory (III)
[6] The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is comprised of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
[7], [8] Oliver Borszik: Ambivalente Erfahrungen mit der "Gestaltungsmacht" Katar, GIGA Focus Nahost 3/2013
[9], [10] Guido Steinberg: Kein Frühling in Bahrain, SWP-Aktuell 23, März 2013