A Long Phase of Instability

BAMAKO/BERLIN (Own report) - With its establishment of a permanent logistical air base in Dakar, Senegal, the German Bundeswehr is expanding its role in the war in Mali. German Air Force Transall planes, taking off from this base, will transport troops and material for future combat in northern Mali. German government advisors are predicting that Mali is entering "a long phase of instability." According to a new analysis published by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), the Islamist militias, who, over the past few days, have retreated from Timbuktu, Gao and Kidal, will probably continue the war with a kind of "guerilla tactic." The Islamist militias grew following the overthrow of the Gadhafi government and the collapse of state structures in southern Libya. To limit their maneuverability in the Sahara, the EU seeks to reinforce the sealing of the borders in the North African desert regions. The EU is therefore planning to establish missions in Libya and Niger. Berlin is considering German participation. German enterprises have an interest in the lucrative fortifications of border installations.

Logistics Base Dakar

The German Bundeswehr is expanding its participation in the intervention in Mali. Last week, Air Force troops began setting up a permanent logistical air base in the Senegalese capital Dakar. The three German Transall cargo planes, with which Germany has been supporting the logistics of the war, are stationed in Dakar. The Air Force announced that, by last week, 25 missions had been flown, transporting approximately 25 tons of material as well as 200 persons. Up to 75 German soldiers had participated in these flights to the "African-led International Support Mission to Mali" (AFISMA). Defense Minister Thomas de Maizière has announced that the Bundeswehr will also dispatch around 40 military personnel to train African troops as part of an EU mission. These measures should begin by the end of March - beginning of April and prepare, as a first step, four Malian battalions - about 2,600 soldiers - for war against the Islamist militias in northern Mali. The mission is not expected to end soon.

Guerilla Tactic

In fact, German government advisors are predicting "a long phase of instability" in Mali. Even if the Islamist militia, which have retreated into the desert area, should "disintegrate into their respective ethnic and tribal components," - which is highly possible - this would still "leave a hard core of regional jihadists," according to a new analysis of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin. They would probably "settle, in some cases, in the neighboring countries and carry out attacks in northern Mali and the bordering countries."[1] It would be conceivable "that this sort of guerilla tactic would be supplemented with terror attacks." The spread of the conflict to southern Mali, especially to the capital Bamako, remains rather improbable, "but this would not signify an end to the conflict in northern Mali."

Borders without Controls

Berlin is turning its attention to the national borders of the Sahara, because of the Islamist militias' high mobility. These borders had always been permeable, but, with the overthrow of Moammar al Gadhafi's government in Libya, the situation has worsened. The government institutions in the south of the country have literally collapsed. For the time being, militias, who are easily receptive to bribery, are patrolling the borders. Even the officially announced border-closing and Tripoli's proclamation of a state of emergency in southern Libya, could not thwart a heavily armed terrorist commando from leaving Libya, January 16, to take a large number of hostages at a natural-gas facility at In Amenas (Algeria), not far from the Libyan border. This was the largest hostage taking in Algeria's history. If the Islamist militias in northern Mali were driven out of the country by the French army, it would be impossible to prevent them, in the current situation, from retreating by way of Niger to settle in the desert region of southern Libya, experts predict.[2]

Border "Missions"

This is why the EU is now planning measures to seal the borders of the Sahara - in view of their length, hardly a feasible endeavor. Brussels recently announced its dispatching of 70 experts to Libya to advise local authorities on closing the borders and to train the necessary personnel. German involvement is currently being considered. The EU will also install its own "mission" in Niger to advise the relevant national authorities in border fortification. "The mission's strategic objective," the EU Council notes is to support the authorities "in their fight against terrorism and organized crime."[3] The border between Mali and Niger alone is more than 800 kilometers long. Islamist militias and heavily armed terrorist groups are regularly crossing this border. According to the EU Council, this EU "mission" in Niger will have a "regional dimension" and will be expanded to other Saharan countries. Initially, liaison officers will be deployed to Mali and Mauritania. Thus, the EU will be present at least rudimentarily at borders throughout the desert regions of West Africa.

War Zone

German enterprises are also very interested in the forthcoming lucrative fortification of the border installations. Industrial executives reported last fall that Libya is planning to build new state-of-the-art border fortifications. Cassidian, EADS armament subsidiary, is among those firms interested in sealing the nearly 4000 kilometer long Libyan terrestrial border.[4]. Cassidian has experience. It is already fortifying Saudi Arabia's desert borders. The German Federal Police is among its cooperation partners. (german-foreign-policy.com reported [5]). Together with other German firms, Cassidian obtained the contract to fortify the Algerian borders.[6] The Algerian-Malian border is about 1,300 kilometers long and is currently within the war zone.

Other reports and background information on the war in Mali can be found here: Desert War and The German Contribution to the War.

[1] Wolfram Lacher, Denis M. Tull: Mali: Jenseits von Terrorismusbekämpfung, SWP-Aktuell 9, Februar 2013
[2] Andrew McGregor: Tribes and Terrorists: The Emerging Security Threat from Libya's Lawless South, www.jamestown.org 25.01.2013
[3] Council of the European Union: Cover Note, Brussels, 31 October 2012
[4] Euro Firms Vie To Help Secure Libyan Borders; www.defensenews.com 22.09.2012
[5] see also Stable Conditions
[6] see also Kämpfe im Sahel


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