Risk in Africa

The Association's Objective: Expansion

Businesses from several western industrial and BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) have been steadily expanding in African countries, rich in resources. The VA's activities must be viewed in this context. Some economic experts are even predicting that Africa could become the new economic boom region. Following an economic growth of five percent in 2011, the IMF is predicting a sub-Sahara African increase to almost six percent in 2012. However, German companies have only been making average profits from this growth. In spite of this slight increase, business with Africa remains at two percent of the overall German foreign trade. Fearing that Germany could lose ground to its rivals, the German-African Business Association is stepping up its efforts to promote German expansion. It has published a study on the business climate in sub-Saharan Africa [1] and one analyzing market opportunities for German companies on the continent.

Ranking Usefulness

The study "Marktchancen in Afrika 2011/12 - Potenziale für den deutschen Mittelstand" ("Market Opportunities in Africa 2011/12 - Potential for the German Middle Class") was compiled by the German-African Business Association in cooperation with the German "Rödl + Partner" management consulting firm. "Rödl + Partner" describes itself as "the first German audit and consulting firm with offices in sub-Sahara Africa.[2] The study meticulously analyzes business opportunities in African countries, listing the most profitable market opportunities for German companies. In neo-colonialist manner, the authors established a list "ranking" the eleven most lucrative African markets based on "economic data, political indicators and surveys of German companies." Detailed "portraits of these countries" provide German investors with a comprehensive picture of promising economic sectors, as well as bilateral arrangements and development projects.

Profitable Devastation

The authors also attach importance to local social problems, but primarily if - in the forms of social unrest or lack of buying power - these could have a negative impact on business activities. After all, the German-African Business Association is still considering Nigeria - with 90 percent of its population subsisting on less than two US-Dollars a day - an "important market." The VA even considers devastation to be useful - in any case, if the country has enough resources and therefore a source of income. One can read, for example, about Angola, that the country has "a dynamic economy" because of its "need for reconstruction after long years of civil war." The Angolan state's investment of millions "in the reconstruction of the largely destroyed infrastructure," for example the building project of a million new homes, also presents "business opportunities for German firms."[3] In spite of the desolation of large sectors of their populations, Nigeria and Angola therefore hold top ranks on the list of the most attractive African markets.[4]

Modern Risk Management

Because poverty and devastation often breed crime, the German-African Business Association regularly offers seminars and training to prepare German firms and their employees for "risk" in Africa. On Wednesday, the VA organizes a seminar under the title "Risk in Africa - Managing Political, Business and Security Risk," in the facilities of the BHF-Bank in Frankfurt/M. According to the announcement, "business activities" in Africa are "widely associated with risk." However, "modern risk management can help companies minimize negative outcomes." The conference will discuss "reports from institutions, best practice from companies and African views."[5] The Result Group, a Munich-based PSC, is the association's main cooperating partner in so-called risk management.

Special Forces, Agents...

The Result Group is the main sponsor of tomorrow's conference. Its representative will speak on the topic of "Safety, Security and Personal Risk in Africa." According to its own description, the Result Group is an "internationally leading consulting firm on risk and crisis management." It is advising "multinational corporations" in war and crisis regions in the "prevention of criminal assaults."[6] On its webpage, the security firm presents various threat scenarios - from hostage taking and terror attacks to pirate assaults. Under the heading "threats", it also lists "strikes." The Result Group offers "intensive workshops for employees working in high risk regions" as well as accompaniment of "ships in high risk areas," for example the Gulf of Aden or the Gulf of Guinea.[7] For its workshops for companies doing business in Africa and the accompanying services, the firm is using trained specialists. Its personnel are also recruited from those former members of the Bundeswehr's KSK Special Forces Commandos, from the federal police GSG-9, special anti-terror unit and from several of Germany's secret services, including the BND foreign intelligence agency. They are willing to work for the Result Group in the service of the expansion of German business. The firm's managing partner Walfried O. Sauer was trained by the German police's SEK specialised task force and had held a leading position for 16 years in an anti-terror unit.

Vicious Circle

The German-African Business Association is organizing on a regular basis similar events. In October 2009 for example, it offered a "specialized training," focusing on "security risks and safe conduct abroad." (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[8]) To insure the African countries' economic exploitation, this training conceptualizes strategies to avert social resistance and poverty-induced crime - averting phenomena, therefore, which are themselves basically the consequences of this very western exploitation of the African continent.

[1] Afrika-Verein der deutschen Wirtschaft: SADC - Business Climate 2010/11; www.afrikaverein.de
[2], [3] Afrika-Verein der deutschen Wirtschaft: Marktchancen in Afrika 2011/12 - Potenziale für den deutschen Mittelstand; www.afrikaverein.de
[4] Nigeria erreicht auf der Rangliste Platz zwei (nach Südafrika), Angola Platz vier (nach Ägypten).
[5] Risk in Africa; www.riskinafrica.de
[6], [7] www.result-group.com. See also Sicherheitsberatung
[8] see also Zivil-militärische Netzwerke