The Choice of Means
ISLAMABAD/WASHINGTON/BERLIN (Own report) - In answer to the most recent threats of a putsch in Pakistan, Berlin and Washington have been intensifying their consultations on a common policy toward that country. In light of the West's announced withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan's predominating military intends to tighten its grip over the country to enhance its influence in that neighboring country, according to rumors in Islamabad. The generals are also no longer willing to sit back and accept the continuous violation of Pakistani sovereignty by ambushes from US drones and NATO aerial attacks. The country's military, which is already cooperating closely with China, could, in the long run, turn its back on the West and form an alliance with Beijing, according to speculations expressed in Berlin. Whereas the USA and the EU - particularly Germany - are insisting that violations of Pakistan's sovereignty be attenuated with conciliatory gestures, influential German politicians are warning against overstraining US operations in Pakistan. The cooperation should be intensified in the business and educational fields, otherwise it would not be possible to maintain long-term western influence in that country.
Putsch Threats
Last week, indications became more evident that in Pakistan a putsch may be in preparation. Following the Islamabad government's sharp public criticism, the army warned the government of "serious consequences," without elaborating further. The prime minister, from his side, then fired the state secretary in the defense ministry, a former general, who had served as the main liaison between the government and the military. "The military wants to get rid of the government," concluded an observer of the situation developing in the Pakistani capital.[1] Correspondents have considered the General Chief of Staff, Ashfak Kayani, to be the "real head of government." Now, in light of the West's already initiated withdrawal from Afghanistan, the armed forces, according to these sources, "wants to take the driver's seat and control the fate of the country."[2] In Pakistan's rather short history since its founding in 1947, a putsch would be no novelty. Already on four occasions, there have been "generals in power," all of which "with astonishing consistency, have been nurtured and supported by every US administration, regardless of its political affiliation," recalls a long-time CIA operative.[3] One could say that the West German government has followed a similar policy toward Islamabad.
The Cricket Star
Observers note that there need not be an open putsch, placing a general at the head of state. The current president could just as well be replaced with the prominent cricket star, Imran Khan. Khan has openly criticized particularly US drone attacks on Pakistan and is, also for this reason, very popular throughout the country.[4] He is considered to be the military's candidate and by European and US experts as basically pro-western.[5] Last week, he met with an influential US think tank and previously visited also London for talks. Observers point out that, over the past few weeks, Pakistan's former president Pervez Musharraf had announced his intentions to return to Pakistan this January. The general, a putschist, who under massive pressure had cooperated with the West during his incumbency (2001 to 2008), had also gone to Washington for negotiations last fall. In Pakistan, there is an outstanding warrant for Musharraf's arrest, which is why his return would be a surprise.
Germany as Mediator
Intensive consultations between Washington and Berlin are accompanying the dangerous developments in Islamabad. Last week, the US ambassador accredited in Pakistan visited Berlin to take part in an exclusive "Expert Round Table" organized by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). Because Pakistan is now considering "particularly its grand neighbor, China, to be a long-term partner," there must be a careful assessment of how "to keep Pakistan closely linked to the West," according to the DGAP.[6] The government advisor and long time CIA operative, Bruce Riedel, had already held talks with DGAP last November. He was quoted saying that Washington has to keep open the option of using force on Pakistani territory, and therefore needs permanent military bases in Afghanistan. However, this should be closely combined with diplomatic initiatives to attenuate Pakistan's resistance to these blatant violations of its sovereignty. One repeatedly hears in Washington that Europe could help in this endeavor, in particular Germany, because it is militarily less exposed in Pakistan and in many other countries, and because it is considered a western counterweight to the USA.
Military Presence at the Hindu Kush
Influential politicians in Berlin are reacting with skepticism. Elke Hoff, the FDP Bundestag's parliamentary group's spokesperson for defense policy, points out that the German Special Envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan Michael Steiner has already been trying to mediate - with little success. Faced with repeated violations of its sovereignty, Islamabad has announced the establishment of air defenses along its borders with Afghanistan, "directed at intruders from Afghanistan, meaning mainly US American helicopters."[7] "Bilateral negotiations between Afghanistan and the United States on the long term presence of US Forces" are the "focal point." Permanent military bases near the border are neither in the interests of Pakistan, Iran, Russia nor China. According to Elke Hoff, "long term US presence" in Afghanistan would definitely be "counterproductive." But she does not mention that Berlin's politicians are also supporting permanent German military presence in Afghanistan. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[8])
Alliance Options
To avoid alienating Pakistan to the point of its withdrawing permanently from the western sphere of influence because of the continuous violation of its national sovereignty - a step that even Islamabad's pro-western forces, including in the military, could hardly continue to refuse - Hoff argues in favor of a transatlantic influence initiative in business and educational fields. "Markets could be opened to Pakistani products," "economic contacts could be elaborated," also a contribution could be made to Pakistan's solving its energy problems "with our renewable" energy or "invitations to young students, within the framework of exchange programs" could be extended.[9] Such an approach would be conducive to making permanent ties between Pakistan's establishment and the West. Behind these proposals lies the apprehension that Pakistan could drift in the direction of China in its alliance policies. This apprehension comes in light of the fact that Beijing not only has established a naval base in the country - in Gwadar, in the far west of Pakistan - but also that the Pakistani armed forces are now even holding joint maneuvers with troops from China - a clear signal that Islamabad is keeping an eastward option for future alliances open.
[1], [2] Premier reizt Pakistans Armee; www.sueddeutsche.de 12.01.2012
[3] Bruce Riedel: Nach Abbottabad, Internationale Politik Januar/Februar 2012
[4] Premier reizt Pakistans Armee; www.sueddeutsche.de 12.01.2012
[5] Imran Khan: Pakistan's Comeback Kid; blogs.cfr.org 31.10.2011
[6] Der gefährlichste Staat der Welt? Pakistan zwischen allen Fronten, www.dgap.org
[7] "Im Moment befinden wir uns in einer hochkritischen Phase". Interview mit Elke Hoff, sicherheitspolitische Sprecherin der FDP-Fraktion, Internationale Politik Januar/Februar 2012
[8] see also Post-Treatment Elements and Zum Scheitern verurteilt
[9] "Im Moment befinden wir uns in einer hochkritischen Phase". Interview mit Elke Hoff, sicherheitspolitische Sprecherin der FDP-Fraktion, Internationale Politik Januar/Februar 2012
