German Demographers

BERLIN (Own report) - German government advisors call for deliberately influencing the demographic development in the so called third world. According to a recently published paper by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), family planning measures should be supported in poor countries to effectively prevent undesirable migratory movements. This will combat the uncontrolled growth of shanty towns - with their potential for engendering conflict - and lead to a reduction of emigration. The SWP is also pleading for support of the development of urban infrastructures in Africa, Latin America and Asia to prevent new conflicts that could be caused by rapid population growth in urban peripheries and disturb Western firms' business activities in these areas. Within the centers of Western affluence, the authors of the SWP paper are proposing family-friendly measures, aimed at preventing the shrinking of local populations. According to the SWP analysis, this is needed to strengthen the human potential of Germany and its allies in the global competition.

New World Powers

The German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) has recently published a global demographic development analysis, entitled "The Demographic Tripartition of the World". The SWP writes that, according to the UN's prognosis, the global population will be increasing from the current 6.9 to 9.1 billion by 2050. But the population growth will be very uneven: whereas it will stagnate at approx. 1.2 billion in the affluent West, the population of the poorest countries will double in size, from currently 855 million to 1.7 billion. While the population in the affluent "first World" will be characterized by its aging, the impoverished "Third World" will be under a "strong migratory pressure". Only the threshold countries ("second World") will have a "balanced population structure and migration" and could therefore become stronger at the demographic level. If, in the field of technology, China and India can reach the world's top level and optimize education of their billion strong populations, they could, "in a foreseeable future, dominate the international system as the USA, in the 20th and Great Britain in the 19th century" had done, forecasts SWP.[1]

Family-Friendly

But the affluent West will be confronted with problems, predicts SWP. With the ageing of its population, the labor force decreases, this could have negative effects on the creation of value and national finances. The "health development" of the aging population could also provoke "growing economic costs," which in turn, could "limit the military's financial scope." A decreasing birth rate would also reduce "the reservoir of applicants for military professions" and this will affect the affluent countries' "foreign policy effectiveness." Therefore, the affluent countries must reverse this development. Only an increase in birth rates can prevent the further ageing of the population. Therefore, "family-friendly working conditions", "reliable child care" and "long-term and substantial family support" are needed.

Relieving System of Migration

The SWP advises that, due to the threat of an increase in undesirable migration, control should be exercised on demographic development, also in reference to the countries of the "third world". According to the SWP document, the affluent western countries would have "a particularly great interest in a functional international migration system". This interest would also derive from the fact "that until now, the vast majority of displaced persons and refugees find refuge in the lesser and least developed countries, thereby relieving the industrial nations from having to accept these refugees." But the causes of undesirable migration must be examined, since they could, under certain conditions, "lead to the destabilization of countries or regions, whose stability are of security interest to the industrialized nations." Because of their aging population, the countries of the "first world" are indeed interested in the deliberate recruitment of specialists from abroad. But this would be very different from accommodating the migration of an uncontrolled movement of refugees.

Family Planning

The SWP advises that "family planning measures" should be supported in the peripheral poverty-stricken countries. This is based on the hypothesis that a high birthrate leads to a preponderance of the younger generation ("youth bulge"), which in turn, in poor countries with high rates of unemployment, becomes "an indicator for a higher conflict potential."[2] A larger number of youth increases "the risks of violent conflicts over the meager resources or social status," writes SWP. The analysis notes "that the western industrial nations' financial support for the promotion of family planning" in the "third world" countries "has not increased but rather decreased over the past 15 years." In the future, the affluent countries should "substantially broaden" such measures "within the framework of development cooperation." The SWP reports that "a longer secondary education" enhances the chances for women "to have a stronger voice in deciding how many children they will have." This has often resulted in a reduction of the number of children. "Demographic factors should generally be taken more into account in development cooperation activities," suggests the SWP.

Global Division of Labor

The SWP is focusing special attention on the "third world's" cities, because of the usually uncontrolled growth of many of these metropolitan areas, in which a growing number of neglected poor communities are emerging. This is a particularly serious danger in destitute countries. The lack of perspective, suffered by the inhabitants of these poverty-stricken shanty towns, will "generate the outbreak of new conflicts over the redistribution of the resources and tend toward a deterioration of the security situation." "Radicalization and violence" could "proliferate." To counteract the tendencies leading toward this sort of radicalization, the SWP favors "supporting, both materially and conceptually, the creation of administrations and infrastructures". Insuring security for western companies' outsourced business activities in low-salary countries is not least among its considerations, because ultimately, "aspects of international security are being impinged upon, when prosperity and stability suffer because, due to uncontrolled conflicts, the urban area in question no longer can fulfill its economic function in the global division of labor."

[1] Zitate hier und im Folgenden: Steffen Angenendt, Wenke Apt: Die demographische Dreiteilung der Welt. Trends und sicherheitspolitische Herausforderungen; SWP-Studie S28, November 2010
[2] see also World Power Theory


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