Unreliable Allies (II)

TASHKENT/BISHKEK/BERLIN (Own report) - With their brief stopovers in several Central Asian countries, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle and Chancellor Angela Merkel are seeking to secure Germany's position, which has become unstable in these countries. On Friday, Westerwelle will meet the Kyrgyz transitional president, who took office following the recent upheavals in that country. The current Kyrgyz government's close cooperation with Russia is threatening western influence. Observers are also warning that renewed unrest in Kyrgyzstan could spread to Uzbekistan and endanger its authoritarian regime, which for years has been receiving German support - including military aid. The Nabucco Pipeline project, which is to supply Europe with natural gas from the Caspian Basin bypassing Russia, is also in jeopardy. Not only Russian influence is growing in Central Asia. The People's Republic of China is also strengthening its position, seeking to secure access to the region's natural resources. Kazakhstan, where the German chancellor and foreign minister will arrive on the weekend is of special importance.

Upheavals

The visit of German Foreign Minister Westerwelle in Kyrgyzstan on Friday will focus on the country's development after the country's recent upheavals that took place over the past few months. Last April, the authoritarian President, Kurmanbek Bakijew, was overthrown, in June bloody riots occurred in the country's South, with up to 2000 casualties - mainly members of the Uzbek speaking minority. At the beginning of July, transitional President Rosa Otunbajewa, who is expected to stabilize the country, was confirmed in office. Observers do not exclude Kyrgyzstan's disintegration and Otunbajewa is also warning of new unrest with possible fatal consequences for the existence of the state.

Russian Competition

Otunbajewa's close cooperation with Russia is important for Berlin. Kyrgyzstan has been particularly demanding support from Russia and other successor states of the Soviet Union. Russian aid to the Otunbajewa government is not only political but includes aid deliveries and finance. At present, Kyrgyzstan is receiving military technology from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), an alliance of seven former Soviet Republics. Bishkek is now also considering joining the customs union comprised of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan - a step it had been seeking to avoid for years. Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan's neighbor, would like to follow suit. Moscow, on the other hand, does not exclude expanding its military base in Kant (Kyrgyzstan) and is still planning to build a second base. These developments run contrary to an important principle of the German Central Asia policy: Since the transformation that took place in 1991, Germany has been trying to limit Russian influence in the Soviet Union successor states [1] as a prerequisite for enhancing its own position in Central Asia, a region rich in strategically important resources.

Without a Social Safety Valve

Also of importance to Berlin is that observers are not ruling out the possibility that unrest could spread into Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan is a dictatorship, a form of government with certain deficiencies, as the International Crisis Group, an influential western think tank, wrote following the overthrow of the authoritarian Kyrgyz president. Even though "the superficial stability" has immediate "attractiveness" to the West, the absence of a "social safety valve" can, in the long run, create a breeding ground for violent upheavals.[2] Uzbekistan is of primary importance to Berlin, not only because of its natural gas deposits. It also accommodates the German Bundeswehr base (in Termez), which serves as a logistical supply station for Afghanistan. For years, Germany has been courting the Uzbek dictator Islam Karimow, who met with Foreign Minister Westerwelle on Thursday, even though human rights organizations have unanimously condemned him (german-foreign-policy.com reported [3]). In spite of an EU embargo, German aid included military training.[4]

Plans of Intervention

While Westerwelle is visiting the regions of unrest, demands for intervention in Central Asia are being raised in the West, particularly by the International Crisis Group. According to the director of the organization's Central Asia Project, the Kyrgyz and Uzbek speaking populations should first be "separated from one another" in Kyrgyzstan. This should preferably be done "by international armed forces". But it would also be possible to install a "political buffer zone with international mediators".[5] And this should be done as soon as possible. Louise Arbour, the President of the International Crisis Group and former Chief Prosecutor of the International War Crimes Tribunal for Ex-Yugoslavia takes a similar stand. She demands that the UN Security Council initiate an "international stabilizing mission" that would be provided police authority and eventually be in a position to call in military support. Countries with the "capacity" to "act rapidly" should react and Moscow should be engaged.[6] These demands have not yet met much public reaction. But they should be taken seriously, because the International Crisis Group is closely linked to the political elites of the West.

Nabucco

Not only the problems in Kyrgyzstan and the insecure situation in allied Uzbekistan are negative for Germany, but also that the Nabucco pipeline to Central Asian resources is in jeopardy. Bypassing Russian territory, the Nabucco Pipeline is meant to supply Europe with natural gas from the Caspian Basin. The objective is to reduce dependence on Moscow for energy. But Nabucco will only be profitable if access to Kazakh or, alternatively, Turkmen natural gas is assured. But it is uncertain whether Kazakhstan is willing to furnish its natural gas by the complicated Caspian Sea route, via the Nabucco pipeline, rather than over Russian territory, especially since China is interested in buying gas from the Kazakh government and is less arrogant than Germany and the EU. Beijing has also enhanced its position in Central Asia and its influence is growing.[7]

Struggle for Influence

In this constellation, Nabucco's future is still uncertain. Russia is trying to profit from this situation and is campaigning for the German RWE company to join the competing "South Stream" pipeline that is to run parallel to the Nabucco pipeline but is being built under Gazprom's responsibility. So far, RWE has been active in the Nabucco project. Former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder has also been promoting this change.[8] But Berlin has yet to give up Nabucco: This weekend, the German Chancellor is visiting Kazakhstan - accompanied by a delegation of prominent business representatives. Offering new business deals, they will seek to induce the Kazakh government to enter closer cooperation with Germany. The objective is not only to enhance German influence in general, but to get the Kazakh government to cooperate with the Nabucco project.

[1] see also Stützpunkt
[2] International Crisis Group: Kyrgyzstan: A Hollow Regime Collapses; Asia Briefing No. 102, 27.04.2010. See also Unreliable Allies
[3] see also Günstige Lage and Prioritäten der EU
[4] Marcus Bensmann: Deutsche Soldaten unterstützten trotz EU-Waffen-Embargo usbekischen Diktator; www.ruhrbarone.de 16.03.2010
[5] Paul Quinn-Judge: Kyrgyzstan: Saving Central Asia; International Herald Tribune 20.06.2010
[6] Louise Arbour: Kyrgyzstan: International community must intervene before it is too late; The Independent 25.06.2010
[7] see also The Principle of Interference
[8] Putins unmoralisches Angebot; www.handelsblatt.de 13.07.2010. Zu "Nabucco" see also Nabucco, Southern Corridor and Eine Dreiecksbeziehung


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