The Limits of American Influence

Foreign Power Struggles

The current disputes in Kyrgyzstan are foreign power struggles. Over the past few years the recently overthrown President Kurmanbek Bakiyev had been supported by the West, particularly the United States, which had opened his path to power back in 2005.[1] On the other hand, observers see not only angry protest demonstrations behind the overthrow of this increasingly authoritarian president but also the hand of the Russian secret service.[2] As a matter of fact, the incumbent President of the Provisional Government, Roza Otunbayeva, had already described Russia as a "strategic partner and ally".[3] And Moscow recognized the provisional government immediately, whereas the West, and particularly the USA, is still reluctant. The EU needs "a clear idea of what really happened, who is responsible" says the EU Foreign Minister, Catherine Ashton, last week,[4] and demanded of the Provisional Government in Bishkek that it needs to "commit to a clear plan for how to return to constitutional and democratic order and the rule of law".

Own Interests

Berlin, on the other hand, is already barging forward, calling for cooperation with the provisional government. As the Human Rights Commissioner of the German government, Markus Loening (FDP), demanded, the EU Foreign Minister should "clearly insure its support" to the provisional government following the Kyrgystan debate on Monday (26.04.2010).[5] At the same time, Berlin is claiming a more prominent role in the formation of Western policy in relationship to Central Asia. Loening "expects" the USA "to rally to our political signal". Preceding this statement, a consensus had been reached between the German Foreign and Development Ministries with the party-affiliated foundations that have offices in Bishkek. These foundations expressed the feeling that the EU should defend its position. "The overthrow of the Bakiyev regime" shows "clearly the limits of American influence in Central Asia," says the CDU-affiliated Konrad Adenauer Foundation. It is "therefore up to the European Union to pursue its own interests more energetically than it has in the past - also in the American interest."[6] For this, "a better understanding must be reached with Russia, which still plays a key role in the stability in the Central Asian nations." In its attempts to win influence, Germany can benefit from the fact that it not only has a close relationship with Moscow,[7] but also that it is the only EU nation with an embassy in Bishkek.

Military Base

Western objectives in Kyrgyzstan can clearly be seen in US strivings for a military presence. Washington maintains an airbase at the Manas Airport, in the vicinity of Bishkek, over which it furnishes 20 percent of its logistical supplies to Afghanistan. Last year alone, 460,000 US soldiers passed through this base as a stopover on their way to or from Afghanistan. The airbase is a subject of controversy. The cost of the USA's lease - destined particularly to benefit the Bakiyev clan - was recently raised substantially. The supreme commander for the regional US Central Command (CENTCOM), Gen. David Petraeus, did not have a meeting with Bakiyev until March 17. It was said that the US government would like to pay US $5.5 million for a NATO "anti-terrorism center" to be set up in the southern Kyrgyz province of Batken. Moscow opposes this steady Western incursion into its traditional Central Asian sphere of influence. Western military bases are particularly unwanted by the Russian government. China is also skeptically observing the Western military activities taking place in Kyrgyzstan, given the fact that they are taking place in the vicinity of the Western Chinese region of Xinjiang, where secessionists are active against the territorial integrity of the People's Republic of China.

Military Cooperation

A NATO "anti terrorist center" in Batken would also provide an opportunity for the NATO member Germany to have a direct military presence, which is why Berlin has, for years, been working with the Kyrgyz military - in close coordination with the USA. For example, the German/USA George C. Marshall Center and the German Defense Ministry invited Kyrgyz parliamentarians to visit Berlin in 2006 to discuss "parliamentary control of security forces."[8] Two years later, the Marshall Center put on a workshop in Bishkek with the participation of a retired German major general. The Marshall Center had invited assistants working in the Kyrgyz Defense, Foreign and interior Ministries as well as from the border troops and the National Guard. Then finally in February 2009, the Kyrgyz Marshall alumni of the three ministries set up a round-table in Bishkek.

Uyghur Secessionists

Military presence in Kyrgyzstan is not only considered significant because the south of the country is increasingly being used for the transit, retreat and recruitment of militant Islamists. In Kyrgyzstan there is a Uyghur minority numbering into the tens of thousands, some of whom have close ties to the Uyghur separatists in the Western Chinese Xinjiang province. At the beginning of this decade, the People's Republic of China initiated military cooperation with Kyrgyzstan to better combat the Uyghur separatists. From the time the overthrown President Bakiyev took office in 2005, Beijing was speculating on the intensification of infiltration of secessionists into Xinjiang province from Kyrgyzstan. From China's perspective Kyrgyzstan's potential for destabilization resides also in the fact that some 100,000 people in Xinjiang speak Kyrgyz. Also significant is the fact that the "World Congress of the Uyghurs" has a representation in Kyrgyzstan. This "World Congress of the Uyghurs", classified by China as a terrorist organization, maintains one of its headquarters in Munich with the toleration and the active support from various German instances.[9]

Exclusive Means of Influence

Alongside its interventions within the framework of the West's Central Asia Policy, Berlin is insuring an exclusive means of exercising influence through its "Germandom" policy. There are some 10,000 German-speaking Kyrgyz, to whom Berlin is establishing close ties and is manipulating politically. For example, Berlin is supporting the "People's Council of Germans in Kyrgyzstan" with language courses, advanced training, cultural propositions as well as social and humanitarian aid. The "People's Council" is also a member of the "Federal Union of European Nationalities" (FUEN), which, supported with government funding, is being directed from Germany.[10] The meeting place for the German-speaking Kyrgyz is Jalalabad, Southern Kyrgyzstan, at the eastern end of the Fergana Valley, one of the most turbulent regions of Central Asia. The Islamist organizations of the region are under close observation of Western powers.

[1] Traum vom Frühling; www.spiegel.de 21.11.2005
[2] Richard M. Bennett: Old habits die hard in Kyrgyzstan; www.atimes.com 13.04.2010
[3] Drei-Tages-Revolution in Kirgistan; Länderbericht der Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung 09.04.2010
[4] EU-Hilfe für Kirgistan nur bei demokratischer Entwicklung des Landes - Ashton; RIA Novosti 21.04.2010
[5] "Europa sollte sagen: Wir finden das gut!"; www.fr-online.de 23.04.2010
[6] Drei-Tages-Revolution in Kirgistan; Länderbericht der Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung 09.04.2010
[7] see also Keine Angst vor Moskau!, A Question of Orientation and Der Sinn der Aussöhnung
[8] Konferenz zentralasiatischer Parlamentarier; www.bundeswehr.de
[9] see also The Future of "East-Turkestan" and Alliance against Beijing
[10] see also Hintergrundbericht: Die Föderalistische Union Europäischer Volksgruppen