War Scenarios for Africa

A Certain Routine

Alongside six Panavia 200 Tornados, two frigates, an ammunition ship and the "Frankfurt am Main" combat unit logistical support vessel, there are also two Sea Lynx onboard helicopters participating on the German side in the four-week maneuver "Good Hope IV". The combat maneuver can rely on a certain routine. The ships are stationed near Cape Town in the Simonstown Harbor, South Africa's most important naval base. The German Navy had already used the harbor during other "Good Hope" maneuvers. The Tornados are stationed at the Overberg military testing grounds 200 km from Cape Town. The Bundeswehr is also no stranger to Overberg. The air force and navy have tested weapons in Overberg on various occasions, including the accuracy of the Taurus cruise missile. The familiarity that has been established during the German-South African maneuvers is advantageous to military proficiency.

Live Fire

As a matter of fact, according to the German Navy, the current maneuver - the largest non-NATO enterprise for the current year - is aimed toward "enhancing and elaborating operative measures and methods within a multinational exercise scenario." In this joint enterprise, training in "live fire" is particularly to be stressed.[1] The soldiers will "fire various munitions from sea and air (...) register and evaluate the flight data" explains the Bundeswehr. This is not possible in the North or Baltic Seas because of the density of civilian traffic. Aside from the maritime region off the coast from San Diego on the US West Coast, the sea at the southern tip of Africa provides optimal training conditions for target practice with guided munitions. This year the soldiers will also be training on the Exocet rockets and the HARM air-to-ground missiles, the same type used to destroy ground-based radar installations during the attack on Yugoslavia. The German military declared that the inspectors of the navy and the air force, as well as the fleet commander will occasionally also be present, underscoring the significance of these maneuvers.

Stabilization Force, South Africa

South Africa, the partner nation in the current war maneuvers, seeks to establish itself as the stabilization force for southern Africa and beyond to the entire continent. South Africa is already economically predominant. In purchasing power parities, it constitutes nearly one-third of the gross domestic product of the entire continent.[2] Its trade with other African nations grew 328 percent between 1993 and 2003, accumulating an enormous surplus: imports were valued at 13 billion Rand in comparison to 39 billion Rand in 2003. South Africa's foreign investments have sharply risen from eight billion Rand in 1996 to reach 26 billion Rand four years later. According to a recent study, not only is the new African military structure [3] "being strongly influenced by South Africa" but "the South African National Defense Force" is considered "the strongest military force on the continent."[4] Contributing to this is the fact that the "army, navy and air force (...) are equipped with modern material."

Modern War Material

Pretoria's being equipped with modern war material is not least of all thanks also to Berlin. German arms exports to South Africa rose considerably since 2001.[5] In 2003 South Africa became the second most important, and in 2004 and 2005 was the most important market for German war material outside the EU, NATO and the NATO-comparable nations. According to SIPRI, in the period from 2003 - 2007, when judged by product value, Germany was South Africa's most important supplier of war materials. The exports resulted from an arms deal, where in 1999; Pretoria agreed to buy EU warplanes, helicopters and warships for a total of seven billion Euros. The German industry furnished four frigates and three submarines from its dockyards.

German Dockyards

The maneuver "Good Hope IV" shows how this business has not only provided Germany economic but military benefits as well. The submarine SAS Queen Modjadji I is participating in the maneuvers. It had been christened in the Northern German Emden dockyard in March 2008, leaving Germany April 22, of the same year and arriving in South Africa in May. It was the German dockyard HDW that directed the production. Also to participate in "Good Hope IV" are the frigates SAS Amatola and SAS Spioenkop, handed over by the German Blohm + Voss dockyard to the South African Navy in 2006 and 2007 respectively. Blohm + Voss also produced the Brandenburg that will be participating on the German side in the combat maneuvers. The joint war efforts, prepared by Berlin for the "Good Hope" series of maneuvers are facilitated by the fact that the navies of both countries are operating German ships. The plans for intervention are aimed mainly, depending on the situation, at the African continent, where South Africa is positioning itself to become the stabilizing force and where Berlin, with Pretoria's help, hopes to obtain greater access to its resources.[6]

[1] Manöver GOOD HOPE IV startet vor Südafrika; www.marine.de 15.02.2010
[2] Christian von Soest: Regenbogennation als regionale Führungsmacht? Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte 1/2010
[3] see also Military Aid for Africa (I) and Militär für Afrika (II)
[4] Christian von Soest: Regenbogennation als regionale Führungsmacht? Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte 1/2010
[5] Informationsdienst Sicherheit, Rüstung und Entwicklung in Empfängerländern deutscher Rüstungsexporte: Länderportrait Südafrika; www.bicc.de Oktober 2008
[6] see also Around Africa and Expeditionary Navy