War Coordination

BERLIN/WASHINGTON/KABUL (Own report) - Berlin's new special envoy for Afghanistan is leaving this week for Washington, to coordinate the West's war strategy. An escalation of the fighting has already been decided; therefore the Bundeswehr (German military) is increasing its number of troops at the Hindu Kush, for the time being, by 600. The new US administration is still insisting that more troops be sent. Among the immediate difficulties to be quickly solved, is the question of supply routes, because the previous main route through Pakistan is, to a growing degree, coming under insurgent attack. Russia is offering the West a logistical service - permits for rail transit of military cargo. The mobilization of more non-military aid personnel is also being discussed, as well as support from India and even Iran. The most recent UN surveys indicate that due to the escalation of combat last year, the number of civilian casualties has risen by 40%, confirming the disastrous development of the war.

Decisive Consultations

As announced by the foreign ministry, Berlin's new special envoy for Afghanistan, Bernd Muetzelburg, will leave for Washington this week for the coordination of the West's war strategy. Muetzelburg will be mainly negotiating with the State Department's new special envoy to Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke. Their decisions will be decisive for the overall western engagement. Among the topics discussed will be troop reinforcements for Afghanistan. Washington is determined to win the war militarily - an intention many experts consider impossible. The idea of recruiting individual Afghan clans and arming them for the counter-insurgency effort, is still a matter of discussion, even though observers are insistently warning that this will lay the groundwork for future wars between traditional Afghan warlords. Following his talks in Washington, Muetzelburg will continue on to Asia and promote the German-American plans in Afghanistan and Pakistan.[1]

Supply Problems

Securing of a logistics supply route is among the problems demanding immediate attention. Approximately 100 truckloads daily are necessary to furnish the occupation forces with fuel and drinking water. A significant part of the West's logistic supplies are endangered since the current main route through Pakistan - used to bring gasoline, food supplies and ammunition into Afghanistan - is coming more under insurgent attack. According to military circles, this is mainly affecting the US forces, because the Bundeswehr is receiving 90% of its supplies through other routes. Rail supply from Europe, either through Russian territory or by way of the Black Sea and the Georgia-Azerbaijan land bridge is being considered as an alternative to the Pakistan route.[2] The announced shut-down of one of the US Central Asian military bases (Kyrgyzstan), which had served for the war effort in Afghanistan, heightens the pressure on Washington to consider using one of the two rail routes.

Via Russia

This is where Washington is encountering Berlin’s preliminary work. Already years ago, Berlin and Moscow had signed the first agreements permitting the transport of logistical supplies by train through Russian territory. In the meantime, Russia has also signed an agreement with NATO for the transport of "non-military" goods - fuel and provisions for the troops. The first NATO transport has just departed with goods loaded in the Latvian capital Riga. While NATO is allegedly limiting itself to the transport of non-military cargo, the German Bundeswehr is now allowed to transport military hardware through Russia. The first such transport was announced to depart this month. The rail transit will lead to a Bundeswehr base in Termez, Uzbekistan, and from there just behind the Uzbek-Afghan border. The Soviet military had built the last section of track to transport its troops to Afghanistan. Berlin is contemplating a prolongation of the rail network all the way to Mazar-e-Sharif - a project that would only be worthwhile if the occupation would be of long duration (german-foreign-policy.com reported [3]).

Occupation Support

While profiting from Russian support for the war, the mobilisation of support from other countries is being discussed, particularly from India and Iran. In informal talks at the Munich Security Conference, India’s security advisor announced that his government is prepared to support the Western occupation of Afghanistan with "civilian aid". European political advisors are pushing for Indian participation in the military field as well. If implemented, this could completely escalate the situation: a strong Indian military presence in Afghanistan would be tantamount to accepting that Pakistan's archenemy will have it in a pincer situation.[4] But the suggestion of using Iranian aid in Afghanistan has particularly been provoking discussions over the past few days. As Parviz Davoudi, the first Iranian Vice President declared, his country "is ready to do more than in the past for the progress and development of Afghanistan".[5]

Dead Civilians

The most recent UN statistics show what can be expected from the reinforcement of troops due to come, regardless of all of the discussions about supply routes and civilian aid. The number of civilians killed in the past year is up 40%, reaching a new high of 2,118. According to the UN, nearly 40% of these casualties - 828 in all, or an average of more than 2 per day - were killed by the occupation forces and their Afghan deputies. Of these nearly 2/3 were victims of Western bombing raids.[6] German Tornado reconnaissance jets are - to varying degrees - participating in the preparations for these bombing raids.

[1] Neuer deutscher Afghanistan-Beauftragter plant erste Reisen; www.auswaertiges-amt.de 19.02.2009
[2] Achillesferse Nachschub; loyal 02/2009
[3] see also Vormarsch auf Kabul
[4] see also Without Perspectives
[5] Iran ready for greater role in Afghanistan; www.presstv.ir 19.02.2009
[6] Number of Afghan civilian deaths in 2008 highest since Taliban ouster, says UN; UNAMA Press Release 17.02.2009


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