The Retreat Option
KABUL/BERLIN (Own report) - Impressed by the insurgent movement in Afghanistan, German military policy makers are no longer excluding a western retreat from this Central Asian country. Retreat "can be an option", explains Winfried Nachtwei, speaker for security policy of the Green faction of the federal parliament (Bundestag). Nachtwei is one of the belligerent German foreign policymakers. The Afghanistan expert, Dr. Conrad Schetter explained in an interview with german-foreign-policy.com, the many in the military are of the opinion, that the errors that have been made in the occupation policy "are beyond rectification." In the meantime, western combat troops, with their brutal combat methods, have even turned the subservient government in Kabul against themselves. If this regime is not able to be sustained - for instance in the case of a retreat - Berlin is threatened with a comprehensive loss of power in Afghanistan. Given the stiff competition for influence in Central Asia, extending all the way to India, it is assumed that, for the immediate future, there will probably be a further escalation of violence.
Like in Iraq
Over the past few days, the combat operations in Afghanistan have led to the highest casualty toll since western military strikes ended in 2001, and threatens to even escalate further. A counter offensive of the so-called anti-terror coalition followed the spring offensive of the insurgents. Since May more than 700 people have been killed in combat - an average of ten per day. In the process, a new alliance against the western occupation troops is taking shape. As Dr. Schetter told german-foreign-policy.com, not only the Taliban - "a very ambiguous label" - but also the previous opposition groups comprising the North Alliance are again receiving an influx of new recruits. These groups are invoking "again their fundamental values", have "thereby drawn closer to the Taliban" and distanced themselves from the West.[1] The Taliban has announced that it will intensify its attacks in the capital as well as in the north of the country. Already in the first half of 2006, the German military (Bundeswehr) registered as many attacks against its units, as had occurred during the entire previous year. In their attacks, the insurgents are increasingly using combat tactics, that were common, until now, mainly in Iraq.
Lost
As the Green parliamentarian, Nachtwei, sees it, a retreat by western troops is conceivable in light of the escalation in combat. "Actually such a defeat (...) should not be allowed" explains Nachtwei, but "it is not to be excluded."[2] "Very many, particularly from the military", are, in the meantime, confessing that in the south and southeast of the country, the alliance of occupation "has completely annihilated the myth of coming as helpers and liberators", says Schetter to german-foreign-policy.com.[3] The Afghanistan expert attributes crucial significance to the developments taking place in the north of the country. In June the German Bundeswehr was given command of the northern sector. If to the Taliban's efforts to expand their guerrilla war into the north, the military reacts "with similar measures as the troops in the south of the country, (...) then I fear that Afghanistan is lost" says Schetter. He warns the German troops against developing "further estrangement from the population, and against having a heavy-handed manner".[4] But exactly this is how the German Defense Minister announced that the troops should proceed. Franz-Josef Jung declared that he has "ordered that we will travel only in armored vehicles." "If there (...) are stronger challenges, we will open fire".[5]
Squandered
The way the West has waged the war in the south and southeast of the country is being sharply criticized, in the meantime, even by the Kabul government. Hundreds dead in combat is "not acceptable", explains the native President of occupation, Hamid Karzai, in reference to the recent Anti-Terror-Offensive.[6] The brutality with which the West, which maintains Karzai in power, is proceeding, completely jeopardizes the already weak recognition of this vassal government. Already the international public pressure brought to bear in the debate around Abdul Rahman, an Afghan Christian convert, further undermined Karzai's standing. "The Afghan president is always regarded as the guardian of the religion", explains Schetter. "This position has now been squandered, and with it, in the long run, also his position, as a president of Afghanistan."[7]
Transmission Belt
German influence in Afghanistan comprehensively stands or falls with the Karzai government. During the Taliban regime, Berlin had to content itself with diplomatic contacts to the so-called North Alliance and had no official diplomatic relations with Kabul. They were only renewed after the military strikes in 2001, when a pro-western elite was successfully brought to power in Afghanistan. "Time and again you find people in the government, who had made their studies in Germany," explains Schetter in his discussion with german-foreign-policy.com. This is a result the educational cooperation policy between Germany and Afghanistan, which has existed since the 1920s, reaching new heights in the 1960s and 1970s." Schetter speaks of a "sort of international competition." "Following the Americans, Germans are the second-strongest group. Those are the elite, (...) that can form the transmission belt between Afghan policy and German interests."[8]
Escalation
The German Government is threatened with a comprehensive loss of power in Afghanistan, if it would have to abandon this "transmission belt" - for instance, in the case of a retreat. Already in the 1960s and 1970s, the country was considered to be a stronghold of control for German development policy influence. But during the Taliban regime, whose return to power obviously no longer can be excluded, there was no official contact to Germany. The loss of its base of influence in Kabul, would be a serious setback for Berlin, in relationship to the virulent conflicts for influence in central Asia, extending all the way to India, and the development of her position vis à vis Russia and the People's Republic of China. A military retreat is therefore considered to be a very last resort. But, for the time being, a further military escalation is to be expected. NATO has already announced its intentions of doubling, by the end of the year, the number of troops deployed in Afghanistan.[9]
Please read also Interview mit Dr. Conrad Schetter.
Please read also: War, Pulverfass, Viele Tote, Wahlen im Protektorat, Völkerrechtswidrig, The Results Were Deadly, On the Ruins of War, Teil der Verwaltung, Pate der Polizei, Hundert Prozent and Deutsche Vergangenheit
[1] see also Interview mit Dr. Conrad Schetter
[2] Rückzug ist eine Option; HNA 04.07.2006
[3], [4] see also Interview mit Dr. Conrad Schetter
[5] Bundeswehr befürchtet Anschläge; Tagesspiegel 02.07.2006
[6] Karzai fordert andere Strategie im Kampf gegen Terrorismus; Der Standard 24.06.2006
[7], [8] see also Interview mit Dr. Conrad Schetter. Unter den Ministern der gegenwärtigen Kabuler Regierung besteht die "deutsche Fraktion" aus dem Außenminister (Rangin Dadfar Spanta), dem Wirtschaftsminister (Amin Farhang), dem Infrastrukturminister (Suhrab Ali Safari) und dem Minister für Höhere Bildung (Azam Dadfar). Karzai's Germans: Going Home to Afghanistan; Spiegel Online 30.06.2006. See also The Greens' local in Kabul
[9] Nato bald in ganz Afghanistan im Einsatz; Tagesspiegel 09.06.2006
