German secret services: war in Central Asia
According to a report drawn up by the Bundesnachrichtendienst, the German equivalent of MI6, Russia is in danger of being de-stabilised. Gises on Russia's southern Rank, in the Caucasus and Central Asia, could, says the BND, lead to very senous conflict. In Chechnya, for instance, the Russians were not, according to the BND, succeeding in suppressing the secessionist forces and there are still 44,000 Russian troops there.
But Central Asia is also a potential flash-point, since attacks by ,,2,000 - 3,000 Islamic extremists" are expected in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzia and Tadjikistan early this year. The plan of these ,,extremists" is to create an independent caliphate state covering some of the territory of these three countries and supported by the Afghan Taliban. Russia, the BND says, would as the Ordnungsmacht in the region, not be able to stand by and watch this happen and thus Moscow would get drawn in to any such confiict. The troops which Russia already has in Central Asia would not be sufficient to fight any such war. If there were such a war this summer, says the BND, it would be a very serious one. The area is mountainous which would prevent the use of tanks and restrict militaryr operations to the light infantiv. The German govemment is therefore watching the situation carefully, not least because ,,German interests are involved". Moreover, the region is one of the centres of the drug trade, for heroin is cultivated in Central Asia and Afghanistan.
(European Intelligence Digest, London, citing Die Welt, l5th February 200l)
